Thursday 10th February 2022

A couple of colder and dry days, followed by something more unsettled – the track of the jetstream and the brunt of the low pressure systems will be to our north but it will feel like a normal level of unsettled for winter.

That high pressure to our south just keeping things less wet than might otherwise be expected in a similar westerly pattern.

Thanks to Helen for the wonky photograph. Or maybe artistically angled?

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, winds falling light later and a slight frost for most by dawn, down to around 0’C.

Friday sees a short-lived ridge of high pressure – low pressure waiting to the west.

Sunny to start, high cloud will gradually build during the day, and some area of low cloud too in the afternoon – so more a case of bright spells in the afternoon. 7’C. Some clear spells overnight, though always high cloud, and some general cloud at times. Down to around 2’C – a frost unlikely.

Saturday will be bright with spells of hazy sunshine. A weather front will be trying to edge down from the north-west, but won’t arrive until around early evening – and only with bits of showery rain. 8’C and windy. Cloudy overnight with a little patchy rain – further heavy rain will spread up from the south-west during the night but should stay to our west until the morning…should. 6’C.

Sunday sees rain spreading across from the west – timing is uncertain at the moment, but we can easily expect 6 or more hours of rain, sometimes heavy, arriving probably in the morning at some point. Fairly windy and around 9’C. Further showers possible once the main rain clears, this continues to be the case in overnight. Down to around 4’C.

A bit of uncertainty on exact details for Monday, but broadly sunny spells, showers and breezy. Around 8’C. Clear skies overnight, a frost possible, down to around 1’C.

Tuesday likely starts bright. A weather front is expected to cross in the second half of the day – perhaps fairly limited rain but uncertain at this stage. Strong winds likely, temperatures around 10’C.

Wednesday remains in this strong westerly flow – also a very mild flow with 14’C very possible.

Otherwise a bit uncertain, though more likely cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain – though often dry.

Thursday looks like seeing high pressure nudge up from the south – a pattern I expect to repeat later in February and especially in March. So assuming so for next Thursday, then sunny spells and around 11’C.

The more likely outcome for Friday sees some rain spreading across…but it’s 8 days away so take with a pinch of salt.

Slightly more likely outcome for next weekend is dry with some sunshine, though potentially windy. Only 60/40 chance – the latter being some sunshine, some rain.

There are further signs of sunnier and warmer than normal conditions for March and possibly late February, even the Met Office seem to be on board with “temperatures are most likely to be above average”, when mentioning March. Another week or so and such conditions might be appearing in shorter-term models which is when I’ll get excited. Wouldn’t an early spring be nice?!

No guarantees yet though. Weather expectations can suddenly change.

Have a good weekend.

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