Thursday 10th December 2020

So we’ve had our cold spell, now time for something a bit milder, but with some rain at times too.

The general picture still has the high pressure block out to our east, but low pressure systems from the Atlantic are now making it as far as the UK – though not able to progress any further east.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees rain spreading from the west, from around 10pm until 4am. Down to around 6’C.

Friday will see a fair amount of cloud around but there will be some sunny spells, especially in the afternoon. The odd lightish shower around. Milder, 10’C. Cloudy overnight, some patchy fog may develop, also the odd spot of rain possible by dawn, 6’C.

Saturday starts cloudy – a bit of occasional light rain but nothing notable. Sunny spells will follow for the afternoon, and scraping around 8’C. Clear spells for a time overnight, a frost in places, getting down to 0’C. Becoming cloudier and windier by dawn.

For Sunday we have a big area of low pressure close to the west driving our weather.

The morning sees more showery rain, some light, some quite heavy bursts – a brief dry (ish) spell follows, before further more persistent and probably heavy rain arrives, either late afternoon or evening. Some fairly strong winds, and becoming gradually milder – reaching around 12’C by midnight. Showers still possible overnight though the main rain will have cleared.

Monday sees sunny spells, variable cloud, one or two showers pushed inland in the wind. Still on the mild side, around 11’C. Variable cloud overnight, 8’C.

For Tuesday we are still in the circulation of the low pressure out west, that is unable to move through.

It should be fine with sunny spells, though still breezy. Though certainly possible that an area of showers could develop and head our way. Around 10’C.

Wednesday is more likely to see an area of wind and rain push up from the south-west – a cut-off low from the main circulation of low pressure stuck to our west. Details uncertain – it may even arrive on Tuesday night, and may stay to our west – though at the moment the most likely outcome is tracking over us during Wednesday to bring some wind and rain. Still around 10’C.

By Thursday uncertainty increases, but I’d suggest something similar to Tuesday is most likely – sunny spells, breezy with a chance of an area of showers pushing through.

Friday and into next weekend likely see low pressure pushing over the UK, making a bit more progress east – so expect more in the way of wind and rain. Though a small chance in stead of something colder and drier developing.

I still think there is a half-decent chance of a notable cold spell somewhere in the period of the last 10 days of December and first few days of January.

Mild and wet is always the prevalent pattern here in the UK in winter, and it always needs most of the jigsaw pieces to come together to deliver a decent cold spell – and we only have a couple of pieces at the moment. But this time last year, the jigsaw had been shredded with the pieces thrown off a cliff.

Once this window of opportunity goes, then I expect it generally mild for a few weeks, with wind and rain at times, and perhaps into the beginning of February also – sudden stratospheric warming events depending.

I wish you all a good weekend – I’m actually going out twice. Though the last two times this year I expect…especially given that I live in London.

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