Sunday 7th February 2021 – Lack Of Snow Update

So, those few fine snow grains earlier today in the wind met your expectations, right?

Safe to say, this was a forecasting flop. At least I downgraded the forecast last night and tried to lower expectations – there are certain other establishments, not to mention the media, who have done even more to set expectations far too high.

In retrospect, I think some cognitive bias crept in when I did the update last night as the models had mostly all shifted to very low snow levels.

So, you’ll all be amused to know that I still think there is a chance of light snow showers later this evening, overnight and tomorrow. I stress the word showers – they will be unpredictable as to where they will be, so you might get some snow, you might not.

If you look at the radar, you’ll see what are known as streamers – normally you’ll see showers moving across in bands, say west to east, but in streamers there is a constant trail of showers – in this case going north-east to south-west.

This is the kind of set-up that can bring some places several cm of snow, and a couple of miles away, nothing. I’m expecting these streamers to continue overnight and into tomorrow – though where they will set up is uncertain. Certainly Kent and similar eastern regions – this far west is debatable but we do have a ticket for the snow lottery.

Worth noting also that the chance of a breakdown to milder conditions this coming weekend is now much reduced – and after a notably cold week, a re-enforcement of the cold, from the east, is now the more likely option.

Full update tomorrow evening.

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