Sunday 23rd May 2021

Weather forecast on a Sunday morning? Well, that makes a change – alas the weather doesn’t (yet) seem ready for a change with further rain and showers to come.

But maybe you should keep reading until the end of this forecast. That is a hint.

I know I have been shifting around the forecast days a bit recently – I realised that I’ll have a lot to catch up on at work tomorrow after a week off, plus I’m on call in the evening/overnight tomorrow, so figured it was sensible to do it now.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Sunday starts rather cloudy with a few heavy showers – but also some hazy sunshine at times. Showers tending to fade by mid-afternoon, with a weather front bringing rain from the west from around 4/5pm – some heavy rain and perhaps a short spell of very heavy rain later in the evening before it clears. Around 13’C, winds becoming strong later. Rain clearing before midnight, mostly clear overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday starts with the low pressure trough over us – though it should be the last for a while. Should. And yes that is another hint to keep reading until the end.

It will be another day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers, hail and thunder both possible – showers pretty much from the start of the day until the evening. Cool, 13’C tops. Further showers possible in the evening with a chance of an area of more general rain for a few hours overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday is another day of limited sunshine and plenty of showers. Less showers than Monday but still plenty around, less heavy than Monday but still heavy at times. And a bit more sunshine too. 14’C. Fairly clear overnight, down to around 5’C.

By Wednesday we start to see high pressure trying to build to the west, but our low pressure trough will still be close to our east, centred over Denmark.

Overall a fairly mixed day, some sunny spells at times, plenty of cloud around and a general cloudy spell or two possible. Showers still possible too, though again a bit less likely than the day before. Temperatures picking up a bit too, 15’C, maybe 16’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Lots of cloud is likely to develop by midday but may break up at times later in the afternoon. Only a small chance of a shower, most likely staying dry. Feeling warmer, around 18’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 9’C.

Tentatively, Friday should be a decent spring day. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud – I cannot yet rule out the chance of showers or something cloudier as it is a fairly weak build of high pressure. Assuming a fair day, then somewhere between 18’C and 20’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

By the weekend, we should be seeing high pressure continuing to build over or close to the UK. It isn’t nailed on yet – the position of the high pressure is still uncertain and therefore the chance of showers, the wind direction and cloud amounts.

However, broadly speaking, the bank holiday weekend should be at least fairly warm (perhaps very warm by Monday), fairly sunny and fairly dry.

Don’t get too excited as it will need a couple more days before I’m confident of this evolution, and even if it pans out as broadly expected there can still be cloud, cool winds and/or showers mixed in too.

But, it is the most optimistic I’ve been for a fair few weeks for some warm sunshine. Bring it on.

Next forecast will probably be Wednesday evening, as I’ll be heading up north the next day to celebrate Christmas…finally. And then I should get back into the usual Monday/Thursday evening groove.

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