Sunday 18th June 2023 – Thundery Downpour Update

A bit steamy out there this morning – the humidity has certainly ticked up.

Such convective forecasts are difficult for specific areas, even within our small geographical area different places may well have different experiences, but I try anyway.

Heavy downpours should start breaking out from around 11am – potentially as far south as, say Basingstoke, southern M25 kind of latitude and will drift north – though also potentially we may see them develop but maybe it is Oxford/Luton kind of latitude before it pours. That’s roughly the initiation area anyway – the potential for some torrential rain is there, perhaps some lightning, a small chance of hail. But maybe you’ll miss them – I’d say a 50-60% chance of catching a downpour during the 11am to 1pm period, maybe 30% chance after that. I’d be more confident for the midlands and East Anglia.

Still some hazy sunshine, still very warm and humid, around 25’C.

It looks like as the afternoon goes on, the thundery downpours will merge into general rain, but again exactly where that happens is uncertain – again, France, Kent and north England I’m more confident on, but our area may be too far west/south – it pretty much depends on development before. Overall a 70% chance of some general showery rain from late afternoon onwards, possibly heavy/very heavy, but also possibly not!

Dry overnight and down to around 14’C.

Sunny spells tomorrow, some fair-weather cloud, one or two scattered showers though those fading from mid-afternoon, and only a 30% chance anyway. Very warm, around 25’C.

Tuesday does then have a fairly good chance of some heavy/very heavy showery rain spreading north, any time from 3am onwards – timing uncertain. Thundery showers may break out in the afternoon once the sun comes out.

Next full forecast probably on Tuesday morning.

Good luck with the showers today – I’ll be taking an umbrella! The rain radar is your friend in such situations as today – keep an eye on any developments to your south. Or just look south out of your window – if you see cloud towering up – you might be about to get soaked!

Rain radar –

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