Friday’s Storm Eunice has not yet started developing, so there remains some uncertainty on track and intensity, but the most likely track for the strongest winds is now over the south of England – yes, us.

Strongest between late morning and early evening, I’d now be surprised if wind gusts didn’t reach 70mph, maybe 80mph. I wouldn’t totally rule out something even stronger. I don’t remember the last time we had gusts of 80mph…maybe not this century?

70mph is easily enough for fairly widespread damage and disruption, 80mph gusts certainly would be. Please take Met Office weather warnings seriously – I’d expect them to update to an amber warning today.

The Met Office model currently shows 130kph wind gusts for midday on Friday, which is 80mph.

However, as it has not yet started forming, it is still within the bounds of possibility that the worst of the winds is further south or further north of us. Possible it could downgrade a bit (though also it could upgrade a bit!). It’s around an 80% chance that we catch the brunt of it.

I think it is the most serious storm since I started doing these forecasts many years ago. So please do take notice and make suitable precautions.