Spring 2022 Weather Forecast

Welcome to my weather forecast for Spring 2022.

Let’s hope it is more accurate than my winter forecast. I always suggest that you take these forecasts with a huge pile of salt, but normally the general pattern isn’t a mile away.

My winter summary was – “a slightly drier and colder than normal winter is expected, though with some notable unsettled spells too – especially in January”. It was slightly drier than normal, though it was milder than normal. We did get notable unsettled spells – but not in January! In fact, if you swapped my January and February forecasts around, then my winter forecast would have been half-decent.

So. Take this forecast with a bucket of salt. Often I get quite a bit right, but sometimes I get it badly wrong – like this winter.

Thanks to Jane for the photograph. A donation to the charity of your choice will be made…if you are reading then please drop me a message.

Background Signals

I’m a bit lacking in time at the moment so will be brief.

The stratospheric polar vortex remains very strong for the time of year – well, it did before a very recent warming event up there. Difficult to know whether it will recover, but if it does, then a return to westerly winds will remain likely for early spring. The warming event increases the chances of blocking highs before then – like we have right now, in fact.

La Niña is still going, so will increase the chances of westerly winds during spring, especially the early part – La Niña is fading and may be replaced by El Niño later in the year…we’ll see.


March looks like it will be dominated by a battle between a cold blocking high to the east, and low pressure systems trying to push in from a still active Atlantic.

The beginning of the month will often be settled, some days sunny, some days cloudy – though there will also be some days with slow-moving weather fronts stuck, bringing some rain. Generally quite mild, though some overnight frosts also.

Around the middle of the month, or just before, those weather systems to our west will have more success in pushing the block back, so there will be more wind and rain over the period.

For the latter third, we should see high pressure trying to push up from the south, but likely an active jetstream also. Details a bit uncertain, but I’d expect some quite warm spring-like days, and some spells of heavy rain on other days. Overnight frosts less likely, but still very possible.

Overall I expect March to be warmer than average, slightly drier than average and slightly sunnier than average.

Around 75% confidence.


April I expect to be dominated by high pressure close to, or over the UK.

April perhaps starting changeable with some occasional rain bands and sunshine/shower days – mixed with some pleasant days. The pleasant days more likely to outnumber showery days towards mid-month – temperatures will depend on exact positioning of high pressure, and some chilly nights could be expected, but hopefully some pleasant days.

Suggestions that for the latter part of April, high pressure is closer to our west, allowing more northerly or north-westerly flows to prevail, which would be cool and cloudy, perhaps with showers.

Overall I expect April to be warmer than average, slightly drier than average and slightly sunnier than average.

Around 70% confidence – main uncertainty being positioning of high pressure.


Confidence is lower for May, though high pressure seems likely to be fairly dominant.

However during the first part of March, it looks more likely to be our west, which would again bring a cooler and cloudier flow, with showers or rain at times – though some dry days also.

The middle of May may be some form of transition to something nicer – with the latter part of May more likely to see high pressure either over the UK or to our east, with warm or very warm conditions, and the odd heavy shower, being the more likely pattern.

Overall I expect May to be slightly warmer than average (though with large variations), around average rainfall, and around average sunshine – perhaps slightly below average.

Around 60% confidence. Not much in the way of long-term drivers to affect May, and the timing of the final stratospheric warming will affect when any cooler spell happens.

Summary…and summer thoughts

So, quite a pleasant spring expected. Overall a little warmer and sunnier than normal, and a bit drier than normal. If I get it wrong, I suspect that maybe I’ve underestimated how warm/sunny it will be, rather than the other way around. We shall see.

Early summer thoughts are for a hot June…but becoming increasingly unsettled in July and August – particularly August. Which feels very normal.

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