Saturday 6th February 2021 – Snow Update

I guess you want an update.

I’m not sure what to update you with, it hasn’t really changed much from my forecast on Thursday – though there is a slight downgrade to immediate snow prospects, but more or less as I wrote on Thursday.

Also the other difficulty is that the showery nature of the snow overnight – then the snow showers tomorrow, means that even in our fairly small region, different people will have very different amounts of snow.

The further east you are, the more likely you are to get more snow – especially if you are, say, Ascot, Bracknell, Windsor, etc. This isn’t linear – places further west could get more then places further east. North a slight advantage, hills a slight advantage – but east generally best.

So, no, I cannot tell you how much snow you will have in your back garden!

What I do know is that showery rain is pushing west currently – it probably clears west by late evening, perhaps turning to sleet but probably not snow.

Then after midnight, further rain/sleet will push west – it may struggle to get this far west, but it should turn to snow if it does. Some places probably won’t see snow overnight, but some will, especially further east with say around 1cm by dawn. It is feasible that some heavier snow pushes this far inland overnight, so I cannot rule out 1-3cm more widely – but keep expectations low for overnight.

Sunday will see occasional showery snow pushing west at times – the bulk of it will remain towards London, especially Essex and Kent, but at times it will get this far west – I think perhaps there is a signal for a greater chance in the evening that at any other point.

Again, keep your expectations under control – you may miss the showers in your location, but broadly speaking, 1-2cm is realistic by midnight. Could be more – could be less, and different areas in the region will have different amounts. It will be cold and windy – around 1’C at best and feeling much colder.

Monday and Tuesday will see further snow showers pushing in from the east – quite how many will get this far inland is uncertain and won’t be known until very close to the time.

More likely cold and dry until weather systems try to push in from the west later in the week which could bring more general snow – but this is all highly uncertain – maybe the cold and dry air will stop weather fronts even getting this far.

Don’t be surprised if temperatures don’t get above 0’C some days this coming week, and they will be below overnight. It really is going to be a notable cold spell and could well last 2-3 weeks, perhaps with a mildish blip next weekend but that is uncertain.

I hope that helps!

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