I’m not sure I need to do much of an update, as I seem to have got this tricky forecast spot on so far. However it remains a tricky forecast with some uncertainty on details.

We start with bits and pieces of rain – leftovers from yesterday’s thunderstorms in France, I believe. The sun should come out…will come out from around late morning onwards. There is some uncertainty on cloud, but most likely the cloud will break up to leave good spells of sunshine – though hazy at times, especially later in the afternoon.

I cannot totally rule out a shower popping up this afternoon, but it is a very small chance. We should reach around 20’C, but the easterly breeze will just take the edge off.

The evening sees an area of thundery showers move up from France. As always in such situations, different areas will have different experiences – some places will just get some heavy rain, some places will get some torrential downpours, some places will get some thunder/lightning – some places may get a proper thunderstorm.

So it will be a watch the radar and lightning detector kind of evening.

It’s possible they will arrive any time from 6pm, though more likely around 9/10pm – the latest they could arrive is around midnight/1am.

As I mentioned, some areas will see some torrential rain and localised flooding will be possible – likewise, there could be frequent lightning for some areas too. But impossible at this stage to know where. I’d suggest a risk of around 15% for a proper thunderstorm, 25% for some thunder, 40% chance of torrential rain – and almost certainly some heavy rain.

Most likely for Sunday, we’ll see a lot of cloud left over. Perhaps still some rain first thing, but most likely it will have already cleared north. Later in the day, some sunshine is possible, but if the sun comes out, heavy, thundery showers will quickly develop. Around 18’C.