So the forecast for today is a bit trickier and the chance of thundery downpours is lower than it looked a couple of days ago.
The early morning thundery rain has left a drizzly, cloudy overhang – and until this clears, storms will not be able to initiate.
There are signs of cloud breaking up on the south coast now, and these cloud breaks should spread north, though the longer it takes, the less likely there are to be storms developing – and it is certainly possible that cloud doesn’t break up until say around 6pm.
So the forecast really depends on how quickly the cloud breaks up and it feels more likely to stay cloudy until mid/late afternoon. I’d say therefore around a 30% chance of catching a downpour later this afternoon and into the evening, 15% chance of lightning – but if the sun breaks through in early afternoon instead of mid/late afternoon, the chance of a downpour will increase, as will the chance that it will be torrential with fairly frequent lightning – a very small chance of largeish hail too.
And if it stays cloudy until the evening, you may get a heavy shower but unlikely anything more notable.