Saturday 21st May 2022

Hello! I’m back from sunny Croatia and I’ve brought the sunshine with me. Well for this weekend anyway.

Next week will be more unsettled but it should improve for next weekend again. Is it just my imagination or are we lucking out with the sunny weather timing nicely for the weekends? At least for those of us that don’t work weekends, anyway.

Thanks to Heather for the photograph from the thunderstorm the other night – normally I use photographs that have some representation of the weather ahead, but this time it is from what has passed.

Saturday morning starts with a fair amount of cloud, though bright with some sunny spells. Generally more sunshine this afternoon, albeit sometimes hazy, and still some bit of lower level cloud around. Warm, 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday sees high pressure remain in control for us, though the low pressure system to the north-west of Scotland is about to spin off a cut-off low to head our way.

It will be warmer, temperatures reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C, with fairly sunny skies – though quite often high cloud will make the sunshine hazy, and perhaps some occasional low-level cloud floating around too. Fairly cloudy overnight, a small chance of a shower, down to around 10’C.

Some elements of uncertainty for Monday, though the aforementioned cut-off low will be over us and developing. A small chance of general rain for the morning – but more likely it is to our east. Otherwise fairly cloudy, some brightness, but also some showers likely – and they will probably be heavy/very heavy. Around 17’C. Further showers/showery rain likely overnight, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday will be a case of sunny spells and showers, the showers probably heavy, perhaps very heavy. Around 17’C with a notable breeze. Clear skies overnight – at least at first, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees a band of showery rain cross – some uncertainty on the timing, perhaps arriving as early as 4am, or maybe not until 10am. Not especially much rain – though heavy showers will follow, along with some sunny spells. Temperatures dependent on the timing of the rain band, but somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Thursday we should be seeing high pressure nudging in from the south-west.

It will be dry, but uncertainty on cloud amounts – I’d expect at least some sun, but potentially more cloud than sunshine overall. Temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 22’C. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday is again uncertain on cloud amounts, though I’d favour something on the cloudier side of the spectrum. Likely warmer, somewhere between 20’C and 24’C.

Next weekend is likely under the influence of high pressure. The somewhat more likely outcome sees some cloud, some sun and temperatures somewhere between 21’C and 25’C. However the slightly less likely outcome sees high pressure a bit further north, with an easterly/north-easterly breeze and more cloud – temperatures closer to the range of 16’C to 20’C.

Looking further ahead to the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend, and the somewhat more likely outcome is for it to be warm/very warm and dry, with some sunshine.

It’s a long, long way away in meteorological terms, so please take it with cautious optimism only. For at least the first half of June I do expect it to be drier and warmer than normal, and probably sunnier than normal – though unlikely every day will be warm, sunny and dry, there will probably be some showers at some point in this period.

Next full forecast will be on Tuesday evening.

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