Saturday 18th June 2022 – Weekend Update

So it remains a really tricky forecast for today – the weather model that I most rely on says that it we should have thundery rain right now. Hmmm. Clearly we don’t.

You can see the cold front to our north on the rain radar – currently around South Wales, Birmingham and up to The Wash. It shouldn’t shift a lot during the day today, though will pivot a bit to be somewhat more in a north-easterly diagonal across the country.

To the south, ie us, we’ll see spells of hazy sunshine, particularly this morning. It will be very warm, possibly quite hot though quite how high temperatures will go remains uncertain, somewhere in the range of 24’C to 27’C is more likely – but I wouldn’t rule out a bit higher.

So the rest of the uncertainty comes from any showers that develop from around midday into early afternoon – and how close that weather front gets. There will likely be some showers developing over the south-east of England, perhaps even general showery rain for a couple of hours – but where is uncertain – you could as easily stay dry as get some showers/showery rain.

Also of note, temperatures probably peaking around lunchtime or early afternoon – it should be notably more fresher, but still warm, by late afternoon.

More uncertainty this evening – a very small chance of a thunderstorm imported from France – though if they occur they will probably be closer to Kent/Sussex…perhaps London. But still an outside chance they are this far west.

The cold front will arrive this evening – and brings pulses of rain, likely some heavy, perhaps with a rumble of thunder – but it will be moving through erratically so giving any timing on when it will rain will be impossible until nearer the time – but at some points from roughly 7pm onwards – I stress the showery nature.

Tomorrow is again tricky on details, though broadly a mixture of sunny spells (often hazy) and some spells of cloud. Some showers possible – particularly by late afternoon and into the evening as the weather front pushes back north. Much fresher – around 20’C.

Oh for an easy forecast!

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