Saturday 12th June 2021

Becoming hot but a change is in sight for next week…and maybe some thunderstorms.

I had 4 excellent photographs to choose from this week – thanks to Paul for the photograph of the cricket. A sports-themed photograph seems apt given the kick-off of Euro 2020 – alas, Euro 2020 is also to blame for me forgetting to do the forecast last night. Oops.

Saturday will be sunnier than recent days – though still some cloud around. High cloud at first, making the sun a tad hazy, this will clear but fair weather cloud will bubble up at times from late morning – likely late morning through to early afternoon the cloudiest time, but there will be sunny spells too. Very warm but feeling a tad fresher in a light northerly breeze, 24’C. Mostly clear tonight, 12’C.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, and the positioning just allows something hotter to drift up from the south.

Long spells of sunshine, a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon, hot – reaching 27’C, maybe 28’C. Perfect for sitting indoors and watching football. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 15’C.

Monday morning looks sunny and hot. A very weak weather front spreading down from the north-west in the afternoon will bring more cloud, but still some sunny breaks. Hot, around 27’C, maybe 28’C – a bit humid too. Cloud at times overnight, 14’C.

Tuesday looks like there will be more cloud around, particularly in the morning. Uncertain on how much cloud, and likely some sunny spells also – and generally increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. Temperatures a tad lower but still very warm, around 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday heralds the change, but could be our hottest day of the year so far. Sunny spells probable in the morning, but cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms – I know it will be one of those nightmare forecasting situations. Likely hot, say 28’C to 30’C – though there is a chance that the thundery low develops in the morning instead which would reduce potential temperatures. The chance of thunderstorms and torrential downpours will remain in the evening and overnight – I can only offer “a chance” at the moment as it will be difficult to pin down the track and development of thunderstorms until nearer the time. Likely warm and humid overnight too.

Thursday…well…it could be anything depending on how and where the thundery low develops on Wednesday. It could be sunny, it could be cloudy, there could still be thunderstorms or general rain around. It might be fresher – or it might still be very warm and humid.

I guess I should give up here. Until the thundery low is resolved in the models, late next week and next weekend could be anything you might expect in June.

I’d suggest two main broad patterns are more likely, one is a return to fresher, more westerly-based weather once Wednesday’s thundery low clears – sunny spells, a chance of a shower or two, and temperatures around 20’C, give or take a couple of degrees.

But the thundery low could instead linger close to the UK for a few days (or a secondary thundery low may follow from the south), bringing further thunderstorms/showers/general heavy rain – but also some further very warm/hot sunshine at times, plus humidity.

Either way, the very warm/quite hot, fine and sunny conditions of late are likely to re-assert themselves afterwards. Summer will take a break, but it will be coming home quickly.

I’ll be back on Monday. Enjoy the football/beers/BBQ/sunbathing/picnic – whatever it is you have planned.

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