Friday 8th March 2024

Fairly mixed weather. Not a washout – but no early spring warmth either.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today looks sunny, once any early mist/fog patches clear. Some high cloud at times, especially this afternoon. 10’C, maybe 11’C but the south-easterly wind will make it feel cool. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front pushes up from the south – the odd splash of rain in the latter half, down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees low pressure heading into France/Spain, and nudging into southern UK.

Generally fairly cloudy, one or two showers dotted around but also some bright/sunny spells too. Reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C and quite windy. A band of showery rain spreads up around early evening, perhaps by late afternoon, and then further showery rain at times overnight – more so later in the night. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks wet, with rain at least at times during the day, though quite likely it become persistent and on the heavy side. Some uncertainty on timings with the rain – will be quite tricky to forecast specific details until 12 hours before on this one. Breezy and around 9’C. Further showery rain possible overnight – but uncertain. Generally cloudy – a small chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 4’C.

Monday looks cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. Some sunny spells possible – if the sun comes out in the afternoon, a shower could develop too. Around 9’C, give or take. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C, give or take.

Tuesday also looks on the cloudy side, temperatures around 10’C – some bright/sunny spells possible but the emphases on cloud.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday/Thursday next week sees low pressure systems trying to push in from the west – bringing cloud, wind and some bits of rain, but probably nothing too much. Milder too, around 12’C.

That said, confidence isn’t especially high – models are swinging around with different solutions at fairly short timeframes.

This might be due to the fact that we’ve had another sudden stratospheric warming event – a 3rd of the winter, which according to the Met Office is a 1 in 250 year chance.

The last two SSW events didn’t lead to colder weather, like the often do. This one has more potential to bring northerly/easterly flows – it normally takes 2-4 weeks for this influence to drip down to the troposphere (our part of the atmosphere), so this may account for greater model variability in the short-term.

Hemispherically-speaking, high pressure systems are more likely further north, low pressure further south – and that will be the theme for late March and into April, though low pressure systems are already further south (ie France/Spain).

It will be an interesting few weeks, and of course, by time we get to mid-April, easterly winds don’t necessarily mean cold…as the continent is warming up notably by then.

Enjoy your weekend…time to work.…

Tuesday 5th March 2024

Less rain. But still some more rain.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tuesday sees a weakening low pressure slide across the south of England, bringing cloud and showers at times – showers could merge into longer spells of rain but this will be fairly localised, also they could be heavy at times – but some uncertainty on which exact areas of southern England will get more rain and when. Some brightness possible later in the day at times. Reaching around 9’C in fairly light winds. Fairly cloudy overnight – the rain should stay to our east though it will likely head our way so I cannot be sure it stays dry, but more likely. Some clear spells possible – especially the further west you are. Down to around 2’C, a chance of frost the further west you are – and possibly some mist/fog by dawn. What a complex little day!

Wednesday sees high pressure continue to build over Scandinavia, and start to influence our weather.

Wednesday morning starts with a mixture of mist/fog/cloud patches – a small chance of some drizzle, perhaps a few spots with some sunshine. Generally it will brighten up with some sunny spells, and some showers breaking out also. Reaching around 10’C. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, a chance of a shower, some clear spells also – down to around 3’C.

Quite a bit of cloud to start Thursday, one or two scattered showers – say around a 50% chance of catching one. Generally increasing amounts of sunshine in the afternoon, and reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, becoming breezy, down to around 4’C.

Friday looks rather pleasant. Sunny, a bit of fair-weather cloud, and increasing amounts of high cloud as the day goes on, but otherwise…quite nice. A south-easterly breeze still making it feel a tad cool, but reaching somewhere between 10’C and 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some showery rain pushing up from the south by around dawn – some uncertainty though. Down to around 5’C and still breezy.

For Saturday we see high pressure well to our north, low pressure being pushed south over France/Spain, and nudging into southern England.

It’s possible that the rain stays to our south, but more likely we stay cloudy with outbreaks of rain from time to time – not always raining though. Say an 80% chance of this, 20 % chance we stay dry. Likely on the mild side, around 10’C, give or take and quite windy too. Further rain possible overnight, though uncertain on where it will track at this stage.

Sunday looks cloudy and breezy with an easterly flow, though not especially cold – around 9’C or so. Some showery rain possible – details uncertain at this stage.

Next week likely stays with this easterly flow – more likely cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle, and on the cool side. High pressure probably remains in control for at least a couple more days next week.…

Spring Weather Forecast 2024

Spring has started, but its still pretty cold. Welcome to my weather forecast for Spring 2024.

First off, the usual caveat. Seasonal forecasting is difficult, if not impossible. It is mostly about studying background signals, previous year’s weather patterns, pattern matching and expectations of future background signals.

Events scupper this, as does a lack of understanding as to how conflicting background signals may work against each other. It’s pretty much best guesses.

This February was a great example. My forecast was for a colder and drier month than normal, based on background signals overwhelmingly pointing to this outcome being more likely, and also the chance of a sudden stratospheric warming being high, in my view.

Except we had the wettest and warmest February on record. What happened? Well, I assume events – it is often difficult to correlate what signal/event caused weather conditions, though I suspect the sudden stratospheric warming event counted against this time – whilst many lead to cold weather, some actually lead to milder conditions, and this SSW event was unusual in that it reflected back into the stratosphere and powered the stratospheric vortex, and hence we went into wet and mild overdrive. At least, I think that is the cause.

All of which is to say that some of this will be wrong, perhaps very wrong. But hopefully enough will be reasonably inline to make it valuable.

For December and January, my winter forecast behaved reasonably well – had February gone to expectations then I would have been very happy! Also I think I outlined future conditions in my twice-weekly forecasts with good levels of accuracy, quite often the pattern for 1-2 weeks ahead was clearer than normal. And I did drop the idea for a cold/dry February (or at least it turning so) earlier than the professionals did. So I’m content with my ongoing forecasts, if not the seasonal.

I am considering stopping doing these seasonal outlooks, because I question the value, especially when they go so off-course like February does. Feedback welcome – I’m not just looking for positive platitudes!

Finally thanks to Sarah for the photograph – a small donation has been made to The Brooke, as a thank you.

Background Signals

There’s always less influence from background signals in spring.

However, there is likely to be a third sudden stratospheric warming event in early March, or strong and early final warming of the stratospheric vortex – whatever it is classed as, this will increase the chance of easterly and/or northerly winds later in March, and into April – and also push the jetstream south.

It’s slightly annoying that I’m doing the forecast now, as in another week or so, after this stratospheric warming event, things will be clearer. So there’s more uncertainty in this forecast than normal.

El Niño should also increase the chance of cold and dry conditions, at least in March, though that was the case for February too and look what happened.

Easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation should reduce the strength of westerly winds, and increase the chances of easterly flows.

Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at record highs in the Atlantic, and my reading of this is that there will be more moisture in south-westerly flows, but also much more warmth potential to tap into – depending on if/when high pressure builds over Spain.

March

The sudden stratospheric warming event probably puts hopes for an early spring to bed, but not necessarily.

Most likely, March starts on the cold side, veers mildish then colder, showery days tending to drier days. Through the mid-month period easterly (ish) winds seem likely at times, which should make it colder at times, but also rain and milder weather will be pushing up from the south-west too. Where they meet, snow is possible – but chances do reduce of battleground snow in March, especially down here. A small chance of snow – nothing more.

Later in March, easterly or northerly winds are more likely, so conditions generally on the chilly side with overnight frost probable at times. Otherwise some sunshine, some light/moderate showers, perhaps wintry and some outright cloudy/chilly days. Occasionally, milder and wetter conditions will push up from the south-west.

Quite a mix really – and it will depend on where exactly high pressure sets up to our north (assuming it does) – so an outright wet month is plausible instead, but also a dry and cold month is too. My forecast is for a mixture of the two, with quite a bit of fluctuation.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly below-average, rainfall around average and sunshine slightly below-average.

Confidence level around 40% – lower than normal, due to the expected sudden stratospheric warming event in early March.

April

Assuming the stratospheric warming event happens, and the outcome is blocking highs to our north, then I expect April to start fairly chilly with showers or rain at times, with northerly or north-easterly winds being more likely than normal. Overnight frosts still very possible.

There is a weak signal for high pressure to build over Spain in the second half of April, perhaps slightly earlier, so I’m going with that, and suggesting that will increase the chance of warmth (finally!) in the second half of April. Unlikely to be an extended warm spell – likely mixed with some weather fronts bringing rain on a few days, some heavy showers on other days – but some warmer, sunny-ish days too.

Overall I expect temperatures to be around average – though a contrast between below-average to start the month, above-average to end, rainfall slightly above-average and sunshine around average.

Confidence level around 40% again.

May

Background signals really drop off here, and long-range models are conflicting with each other, so in a forecast with lower confidence than normal, I’m even lower on confidence for May.

My best suggestion is for the warmer than normal end of April to continue into the beginning of May, with some very pleasant days – though also a few interruptions – some showers, some occasional weak weather fronts bringing more cloud and rain, with fresher air following.

The latter part of May perhaps looks more unsettled for a time (possibly warm/humid still), though with a trend to much warmer and drier conditions by the end of the month.

Confidence level of 20% – unusually low.

Early summer thoughts and summary

So a mixed spring looks more likely, and not an especially joy-filled spring – with some colder and wetter conditions early. Though with the proviso that uncertainty is much higher than normal.

Early signals for summer do point to a drier and hotter summer being more likely than normal, particularly June.…

Friday 1st March 2024

Spring is here but autumn continues – can confirm that it was a gloriously wet and wild walk this morning.

More showers to come.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Heavy rain on Friday morning will give way to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – you may miss all the showers, but more likely you catch a few. Showers heavy/very heavy, perhaps with hail/thunder or even sleet/wet snow. Windy, especially in the showers, 8’C but feeling colder than that. Some showers in the evening/overnight – with a trend towards general heavy showery rain in the latter part of the night – a small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in. Down to around 3’C.

Low pressure remains in charge for the weekend – centred over the south of England.

Generally showery with some occasional sunshine, showers potentially heavy with a small chance of sleet/wet snow mixed into the heaviest. Less showers later in the day. I think some uncertainty over exact details – so don’t be too surprised if few showers – or the opposite, more general rain. Around 6’C – breezy and chilly. Mostly clear skies overnight, frosty for all – down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches in some places.

Sunday should be fairer. Early mist/fog patches lift into sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Small chance of light showers, but more likely you’ll stay dry. Around 8’C or so. Clear skies with a frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches forming in places too.

There is one model showing a spell of rain/sleet/snow instead on Sunday – it seems so far out of range of likely outcomes that I should dismiss it – all other models keep this area in the North Sea, way to our east. Worth keeping an eye on anyway.

Monday sees early mist/fog patches clear to sunny spells, becoming increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Perhaps a light shower, but otherwise dry until rain in the evening. Around 10’C and becoming breezy. Rain spreading across in the evening and first part of the night, clear spells follow, down to around 4’C.

Not especially high confidence on the details, but broadly Tuesday looks a reasonable day, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Temperatures around 10’C. Frost/fog possible overnight.

By Wednesday we see high pressure over Scandinavia continuing to develop, and spread its influence our way.

Likely on the mild side for Wednesday, in a more southerly-ish flow, up to around 12’C. More likely dry, perhaps with some sunshine, though confidence in details not especially high. Frost/fog possible overnight.

Where we go from there for late next week and into next weekend is broadly outlined, but details are still to be determined, and will depend on the shape and location of the Scandinavian high pressure.

We could end up with a more south-easterly flow, probably on the milder side, say 10’C to 12’C, though with a trend away from drier sunnier conditions to cloudier and wetter conditions as low pressure systems try to spread up from the south-west.

Or we end up more easterly, a colder flow, temperatures between 4’C and 7’C, with cold winds and perhaps wintry showers.

The milder south-easterly outcome seems more likely for late next week and into next weekend, though perhaps colder easterly is more likely after that.

I shall try to write the spring forecast this weekend. Keep your expectations low.…

Spring Photograph Request

It’s nearly spring…how exciting! Even if March might end up colder than the exceptionally mild February (of which I predicted the opposite…alas). Anyway, I need a photograph for my spring forecast please.

Usual rules:

  1. Must have weather. Must have spring weather of some description! I choose to fit the forecast.
  2. Must be the local area.
  3. Can be from any year…as long as it is spring!
  4. Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on! But I only use landscape-orientated images.

I will donate £10 to the charity of the winner’s choice…I will be in touch with whoever I choose.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

I guess I’ll be writing it this weekend.…

Tuesday 27th February 2024

On the chilly side and generally fairly mixed to end February and bring in March.

Thanks to Philippa for the photograph.

Tuesday starts bright with spells of sunshine, albeit often and increasingly hazy. A weak weather front crosses during the afternoon/evening, bringing thicker cloud and a little light rain at times. Around 7’C. Clear-ish skies overnight, though mist/fog forming in places towards dawn. Chilly, down to around 3’C.

Early mist/fog patches will lift on Wednesday, but it will stay fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud spreads east during the afternoon, with showery light/moderate rain. Breezy and milder, 10’C. Cloudy overnight with the odd bit of light rain – something somewhat heavier around dawn, around 10’C.

Thursday morning sees some showery and possibly heavy rain. Some uncertainty as to when this clears east – any time between midday and 5pm, is feasible – with sunny spells following. Mild in the rain, 10’C, maybe 11’C, but notably cooler after it clears. Clear skies overnight, temperatures dropping to around 1’C – a touch of frost possible. Towards dawn rain approaches, perhaps with a touch of wintriness mixed in.

For Friday we have this low pressure trough dropping down from the north-west with some colder air mixed in.

The morning sees heavy rain, perhaps a little sleet mixed in, but predominantly rain. A short spell of strong winds is likely as it arrives – not going to make for the most pleasant morning walk! This clears to sunny spells and the scattered heavy showers in the afternoon. Around 7’C. Further showers probable in the evening and at times overnight – most likely rain, but something wintry mixed in is possible. A chilly night, down to around 2’C but very give or take – a frost possible.

Low pressure will still be in charge for Saturday. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers is the more likely outcome – though it will depend on the exact positioning of low pressure. Around 7’C. Some uncertainty overnight, though the slightly more likely outcome is a clear and frosty night, down to around -1’C – but there is a chance instead of some showery rain.

Sunday likely still has low pressure close by, but exact positioning is uncertain and hence details are sketchy. Broadly though, sunny spells with a chance of some showers, and around 8’C.

Showers still possible for Monday, though by Tuesday it looks like high pressure is going to start building from the south-west.

So the middle of next week looks most likely that it will be dry, with sunshine/hazy sunshine and turning milder, say 12’C or so. Pleasant enough. Not a done deal – but close to. Overnight frosts possible.

Where high pressure then centres itself will determine whether we get a taste of spring, or a reminder of winter. My suspicion is that it will centre itself over Scandinavia, and we’ll get something more south-easterly/easterly which will lead to cooler/colder and cloudier conditions. Can we sneak a nice spring-like weekend out first? Possibly, but that’s 11 days away.…

Friday 23rd February 2024

Colder than it has been, though nothing unusual. Otherwise mixed, some sunshine, some showers, some rain.

Thanks to Hev for the photograph.

The general picture sees a large low pressure trough over north/western Europe, even digging down into parts of Spain – bringing colder Polar Maritime air.

Today sees sunny spells and heavy showers. The sunshine often hazy with a layer of high cloud, the showers generally heavy – hail and thunder could be mixed in, perhaps in any really heavy ones there could be a wintry touch too. Around 8’C but feeling cooler in the breeze, especially in the showers. Showers mostly fading in the evening, I cannot rule a stray overnight shower, but mostly there will be clear spells, and a frost – down to around -1’C. I think the first frost of February (air frost, ie 0’C or below).

Saturday sees more in the way of sunshine, especially in the morning and late afternoon – through late morning into early afternoon there will be more cloud, and some showers. Fewer showers than Friday, so you may miss them all, but some heavy ones around. Still on the chilly side, 8’C. Clear skies overnight, though high cloud will spread in from the west as the night goes on. Down to around -1’C and frosty.

Sunday sees low pressure spread down from the north-west, towards France. This will bring a cloudy day with at least some showery rain. Some uncertainty on details, we are more or less on the northern edge of where the rain is likely, so it could just be dribs and drabs, or it could be fairly persistent all day. More likely it is patchy and light/moderate for much of the day, with heavier and more persistent rain later in the day – but as I said, there is a fairly wide window in terms of what happens. Also it will gradually become windy – strong winds by the evening and overnight, perhaps touching gale force. 8’C by day, 5’C by night.

Monday sees low pressure slowly clearing – it cannot move east, so it sinks south towards Spain. They do need the rain!

Possibly still some showery rain in the morning, but it should gradually clear to brighter skies – note some uncertainty though. However the strong north-easterly wind will persist through the day, and it will feel pretty raw – reaching around 7’C but feeling colder. Winds easing and skies clearing overnight, down to around 1’C, give or take – perhaps a frost.

Tuesday looks dry with hazy sunshine. Around 8’C. A weak weather front crossing overnight, bringing cloud and a bit of patchy rain – down to around 4’C.

Wednesday will be dry with some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures up a notch to 10’C.

Thursday at least starts dry – a weather front looks like it will spread east either in the afternoon, or evening/overnight, bringing some rain – timing uncertain at this stage.

The more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend sees low pressure around – so further showers and perhaps general wind/rain. Not especially high confidence, but the more likely outcome.

We’ve had another one of those technical sudden stratospheric warming events – it has been a strange winter. It’s kind of comparable to the technical recession described on the news last week, yes it is a recession but there’s little impact in terms of unemployment – yes there has been a sudden stratospheric warming event, but there should be little impact in terms of changing the weather down in the troposphere.

I think the trend for March will see the jetstream further south than normal – France/Spain may be wetter than normal, for example. Likely we’ll therefore also see low pressure quite often, with rain/showers at times – and average temperatures more likely, which is almost akin to saying cooler than normal, given the crazily warm Atlantic Ocean, which keeps setting records.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Tuesday 20th February 2024

The mild slowly relenting to something colder – and becoming unsettled too.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Today sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells, particularly through the lunchtime period/early afternoon. Still mild, quite breezy too, 12’C. The evening sees some light, patchy rain spread down from the north-west – with more showery rain pushing in from the west later in the night. Down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees the jetstream push further south – and the Spanish high pressure system finally squeeze west – which will allow something colder to reach us in turn.

Wednesday morning into lunchtime, perhaps early afternoon, will be wet with showery rain – fairly strong winds too. Brighter skies will follow with hazy sunshine. Still mild, 12’C, maybe 13’C. A few bits of showery rain overnight, generally fairly cloudy, down to around 9’C.

Thursday sees heavy/very heavy pulses of rain spread east – sometimes dry and bright, but sometimes pouring down. Breezy – mild in the morning, up to around 12’C, but colder once the heaviest pulses of rain clear, around 6’C – once the colder air arrives, then there will be more sunshine but still some heavy showers possible. Clear spells overnight, a stray shower possible, down to around 3’C.

By Friday we are in this classic Polar Maritime flow.

Sunny spells and showers, perhaps heavy with thunder possible, some interesting cloudscapes (especially now I live in a 17th floor flat!) – and an outside chance of something wintry mixed in, be it hail, sleet or wet snow but mostly everything that falls will be rain. Reaching around 7’C, and windy. Clear spells overnight – a chance of mist/fog forming, and a frost probable for most, down to around 0’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few scattered heavy showers – less around than on Friday. Reaching around 8’C. Mist/fog possible overnight, frost probable but will depend on cloud amounts which are uncertain – temperatures somewhere between -2’C and 3’C.

Low pressure still around on Sunday. Some uncertainty on details, but broadly some cloud, some sunny spells and some scattered showers – around 8’C.

Next week likely starts fairly similar – some sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, some showers around and generally on the chilly side, though nothing unusual for the time of year, say between 6’C and 8’C. Overnight frosts possible.

More likely as the week goes on we go back into something more unsettled, with strong winds and heavy rain – though not especially high confidence.

Generally March looks like seeing the jetstream further south than normal, so a wetter than normal month with generally average temperatures looks a fair bet.…

Thursday 15th February 2024

We reached 16.9’C today – unusually warm for the time of year. Staying mild with fairly mixed conditions.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy with some showery rain, the odd heavy burst possible, though dry much of the time. Mild, 11’C.

Friday sees high pressure nudge in, though the Atlantic is gearing up with low pressure not far away, and the jetstream strengthening.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud throughout the day, one or two showers bubbling up through the lunchtime period, but otherwise fairly pleasant for February – with longer spells of sunshine likely by late afternoon. Very mild, 14’C is achievable. Clear skies for the first half of the night, more cloud after that. Down to around 5’C.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy, though some hazy sunshine at times is possible, along with the odd splash of light rain. Still very mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Some bits of rain in the evening, becoming heavier and more persistent after midnight. No lower than 10’C.

Some uncertainty for Sunday in terms of how quick the overnight rain clears – my semi-educated guess would be late morning, but it could feasibly be anywhere between dawn and mid-afternoon. Sunshine will follow, and temperatures will be very mild – up to 15’C. Assuming the rain clears, the afternoon could be really rather pleasant for February, but I stress the uncertainty on the time the rain clears. Reasonably clear skies overnight for a time, more cloud later, down to around 7’C.

Early cloud on Monday, perhaps a shower, will clear to sunny spells for the rest of the day – again becoming very pleasant but temperatures taking a dip, to a still above-average 11’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, and a chillier night – down to around 3’C, but very give and take.

High pressure hangs on into Tuesday, a lot of cloud around but some hazy sunshine at times. Becoming breezier, and reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C. Perhaps some rain later in the day – but arrival time uncertain. Probably some rain overnight as a weak weather front crosses – heralding a change.

By Wednesday the jetstream sinks further south, and low pressure heads our way.

Likely a windy day, some uncertainty on the timing of rain – perhaps during the day, perhaps not until night, and staying mild, around 11’C.

Thursday likely remains windy with either rain or showers – likely still mild though.

Friday and into next weekend likely see a cooler flow, with temperatures back down to normal, between 8’C and 10’C. Windy with rain or showers. Colder nights, with a chance of a frost – depending on the location/timing of weather fronts.

Enjoy your weekend…and the mildness.…

Monday 12th February 2024

Staying mild with some rain at times – but not as much as we’ve seen. I read earlier that the CET (Central England Temperature) is 4.1’C above average so far for February, which is quite astonishing.

All the background signals pointed to a colder and drier February than normal – clearly that is not the case. And that isn’t going to change, at least not in the next week or so.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Tonight sees variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower and a chilly night – down to 3’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees high pressure over Spain/Portugal ensuring the mild flow continues, with low pressure close by to the UK.

It starts bright, but it will cloud over with showery rain during the afternoon – some heavy bursts possible. Around 10’C and breezy. Showery rain for the first part of the evening, then generally cloudy – again some more showers around from the early hours onwards. Breezy and mild, 11’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with rain at times, some heavy bursts possible especially mid-morning to early-afternoon, though also there will be dry spells. Mild, if not very mild, 13’C or so and breezy. Staying mild and cloudy overnight, with some showery rain at times – which could occasionally be heavy or briefly very heavy. 12’C.

Thursday should see some hazy sunshine at times, but we’ll remain in the very mild and fairly moist flow – so there will also be some showery rain occasionally, more likely in the afternoon. 14’C, maybe 15’C, and still breezy. A band of showery rain, occasionally heavy, crossing in the evening, perhaps taking until after midnight to clear – clear spells follow. Down to around 9’C.

Friday sees high pressure nudge into the UK from the south-west.

A fair amount of fair-weather cloud at first, one or two scattered showers through the middle part of the day too. But also some sunshine, especially later – and temperatures around 13’C.

Saturday starts bright, but it will gradually cloud over from the west – rain arriving maybe later in the day, maybe evening/overnight – timing TBC. Still very mild, around 13’C or so and the wind increasing once more. Rain likely overnight. Still mild, of course.

Sunday is a bit more uncertain – the trend will be for rain but timing uncertain. Quite possibly staying cloudy after it does – and definitely staying mild/very mild.

Dry and mild/very mild looks the more likely outcome to start next week.

After that I’m wary of forecasting further ahead – firstly my expectations of a colder and drier than normal February, which I canned last week, clearly haven’t come to pass.

The sudden stratospheric warming event may well happen, but whether it will impact our weather remains to be seen – it would have to be something impressive to overcome the Spanish high which is dominating our weather at the moment, likely fed by the exceptional sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

If the SSW happens, then less mild weather and more rain would be more likely going into March, with it taking around 2-4 weeks for impacts to be felt from an SSW event, and perhaps some colder weather at times – though overcoming the vast mildness over Europe would be quite something.

If it doesn’t happen, there are no strong signals for our weather in March, as it stands. Except for the Spanish high pressure.…