Tuesday 17th October 2023

Becoming milder, but wetter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today will be a day of hazy sunshine – the cloud gradually thickening during the day, broadly speaking, though with somewhat varying thickness and hence amounts of hazy sunshine. Milder, we should squeeze 15’C, as we pick up a flow from Spain. Becoming breezy too. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C with a little patchy rain possible before dawn.

By Wednesday we see low pressure nudging in from the south-west.

Wednesday will generally be cloudy, the odd spot of patchy rain possible in the morning, though in the afternoon the rain will gather and spread north – some heavy bursts mixed in. This continuing until early/mid-evening. 16’C but windy, some fairly strong gusts at times. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower possible, no lower than around 13’C, the wind easing somewhat.

Thursday morning starts with an area of showers moving north, fairly much first thing. This sets the theme for the day – often cloudy, sometimes raining – though the distribution of showers remains a little uncertain, you may well get frequent heavy showers, almost showery rain, or maybe just a few showers. Feeling somewhat warmer, 17’C or so. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight, though some uncertainty over where the focus will be. No lower than around 12’C.

Things get interesting on Friday, as high pressure re-establishes itself over Scandinavia, and stops our low pressure (Storm Babet) from going anywhere. If it was winter, such a set-up could lead to a major snowfall (though such things are never so straight-forward!).

Thankfully its October, so I don’t need to worry about “will it snow”, but there is uncertainty over both temperatures and rainfall. Generally it will be cloudy, and there will be at least some showery rain – perhaps persistent general rain. More likely we are still in the warmer air, reaching around 17’C – but its a fairly close call and will depend on the shape of the high pressure system over Scandinavia – it could be cooler and around 11’C instead. Roughly 70/30 split in terms of likelihood.

Showery rain still possible overnight, though less likely than during the day. Down to around 10’C with an easterly flow developing.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday, but more likely it is a mostly cloudy day, feeling cool in an easterly wind, perhaps some light showers. Temperatures between 10’C and 12’C. Probably too cloudy for a frost, but a chilly night likely.

Low confidence for Sunday, perhaps sunny spells and the odd shower, with temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C – too much to be determined before then to have much confidence on details.

A more classic autumnal spell seems like the more likely way to go for next week and perhaps into early November – with spells of wind and rain, interspersed with fine days with the odd shower, being the most likely theme, and generally on the mild side.…

Friday 13th October 2023

Some rain, then colder.

Thanks to JoJo for the photograph – from July, but its kind of similar vibes today.

This morning starts warm but cloudy, some showers around which could be heavy. These push east to leave a few dry hours roughly late morning into early afternoon – some heavy sunshine and it will be warm, at around 20’C. Then showery rain pushes south-east later in the day, some heavy bursts likely, roughly between mid/late afternoon and early evening. Windy, especially this morning – much cooler once the rain clears this evening. Mostly clear skies in a chilly NNW breeze overnight, down to around 6’C.

For the weekend we have something colder, with a northerly flow setting up for Saturday.

Plenty of sunshine for Saturday, some fair weather cloud and one or two scattered showers – say a 50% chance of catching one or two, fairly innocuous. Feeling much cooler, around 13’C in a north-westerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though becoming hazier in the afternoon. Just 11’C though – quite the change. Down to around 2’C overnight – the high-level cloud stopping it getting to freezing point.

By Monday, high pressure remains in control, though low pressure will be trying to edge in from the south-west – which means a continuation of the hazy sunshine of Sunday, and temperatures around 12’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, and hence temperatures – though on the chilly side most likely.

For Tuesday, likely there will be reasonable amounts of sunshine, if perhaps hazy sunshine – some uncertainty on cloud amounts due to the uncertainty positioning of low pressure to our south/south-west. Around 14’C so feeling a bit milder, though breezy, if not windy.

Wednesday is when confidence starts to break down more – we likely see low pressure trying to push north, though the high pressure block won’t give way easily.

Take this with a pinch of salt, but something along the lines of hazy sunshine to start – chances of showery rain later in the day. This will need a couple more days to firm up, as it is a bit of a tricky transition. Fairly confident it will be windy, and temperatures roughly around 13’C.

Thursday more likely to see some showery rain – though probably also something slightly warmer, say around 16’C.

Again the forecast for next weekend depends on where this low pressure close to our south-west is, and where the high pressure close to our north-east is. Whichever is closer will determine our weather – it does look like a fairly blocked situation with neither moving too far for a few days at least.

So it could be rather wet/showery but mild, or it could be drier but cooler. Either way, a good chance of it being windy.

Have a good weekend. Maybe make sure your heating still works and find those jumpers!…

Tuesday 10th October 2023

The warm air mass remains, but with rain in the mix too. Then much cooler by Saturday – jumpers out, heating on.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Today is another day with long spells of warm sunshine, albeit hazy at times with a fair amount of high-level cloud. Reaching around 22’C in a westerly breeze. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight, some patchy mist/fog possible – most places no lower than 15’C so a mild night.

By Wednesday we see the warm upper air ebbing away, colder air is trying to push down from the north, but low pressure is also edging in from the west.

Early mist/fog/low cloud patches will lift to hazy sunshine, though the cloud will gradually thicken during the day as a weather front very slowly edges south. 20’C should be reached, maybe a shade more. Uncertain as to when the rain arrives, likely by the evening we are seeing some showery rain – some quite heavy, some light – but maybe also some patchy rain during the afternoon. Further showery rain overnight, though trending generally drier as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

For Thursday, we will still be in the warmer air mass, but it will be cloudy so temperatures restricted to around 16’C, give or take. Some early showery bits of rain possible, the odd bit of light rain possible in the afternoon too but otherwise mostly dry and mostly cloudy. Rain spreading north-east in the evening and overnight, heavy at times and some fairly strong winds. Very mild, 17’C.

Friday is a little complex, as we likely have two, maybe three distinct weather fronts. The one to the south will involve some heavy/very heavy rain – but exactly where it will be is uncertain, though I’d favour that we do get at least some heavy/very heavy rain at times in the morning. Once it clears there should be some hazy sunshine, and temperatures could easily reach 21’C, assuming so. Then the next weather front sinks south later in the day, the rain more patchy though there is potential for a spell of heavy rain into the evening – all highly uncertain.

However, if the southern weather front is further south, we may instead find the second weather front clearing through in the morning/afternoon, and cooler air spreading south earlier.

As I said, a complex picture and exact details on timing of rain bands, will need a couple more days.

Overnight sees clear skies and a chilly northerly wind, down to around 6’C.

So, from much warmer than normal to a bit colder than normal, as a northerly flow sets in.

Saturday will be reasonably sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a fairly innocuous shower. But in a northerly breeze, temperatures around 13’C. Down to around 3’C overnight – a touch of frost in places.

Sunday looks fairly sunny, some cloud around – but just 10’C, maybe 11’C at a push. Hmmm. Where summer gone? Down to around 0’C overnight, a frost for most.

Next week starts dry with sunny spells, but also on the chilly side for the time of year.

Uncertain where we go later in the week – I’d slightly fancy rain pushing in from the west for a fairly short unsettled spell, but it is uncertain. There is also a fairly strong signal for high pressure to build over Scandinavia, which would mean a chilly easterly is more likely later in the month.

Goodbye warmth, for now.…

Friday 6th October 2023

Welcome back, summer.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Friday starts with a lot of high/mid-level cloud – bright but the sun only vaguely poking through. Gradually the cloud will thin and break, to bring a reasonably sunny day, if a bit hazy at times. Warm (for the time of year), 20’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the general set-up into the weekend sees high pressure over Spain/France pushing up into the UK, with a really exceptional level of warmth in the air mass – how many times have we seen this in the last 2-3 years?

Also of note, and slight effect, is a notable colder plunge into Scandinavia – to our east, but will have a slight moderating effect on our temperatures this weekend.

So Saturday sees long spells of sunshine. There will be some high cloud around, more notably in the afternoon which will make things hazy, and limit temperatures a tad below previous expectations – but still reaching around 23’C, give or take, which is very warm for the time of year. Just 8’C in Glasgow where the colder air will reach. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine, but there will again be plenty of high cloud around making it hazy at times – more notably in the morning. Warm again, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud at times overnight, so a bit milder, 14’C.

Monday sees long spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud generally a bit thicker than the last two days, but bright with hazy sunshine will be the theme. Warm again, reaching around 22’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday remains in the warm air mass, still likely a covering of high/mid-level cloud so hazy sunshine, but also perhaps a tad warmer, say around 24’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks like the goodbye summer day – uncertain on the timeline but the warmth should hang on with some hazy sunshine in the morning, a band of potentially heavy rain spreading down from the north-west later in the day/evening – maybe overnight. As I said, timeline uncertain. Reaching somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on when the rain arrives.

By Thursday, the somewhat colder air mass to the north-west will more likely spread down.

It’s not certain – it isn’t even impossible that the warmth hangs on another day, but more likely we are looking at sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. A chilly night likely – down to roughly 5’C, though very give and take at this stage.

That’s about as far as I can go – likely more autumnal in terms of temperature next weekend, it should be around the 13’C to 16’C range – but whether it is wet, or sunny, is highly uncertain. It isn’t impossible that the relative warmth returns (or never left) but is only around a 10% chance.

There is a fairly strong signal for the week after to be unsettled, wet and windy – and again a signal for something drier and milder (semi-warm?) for later in the month.

Enjoy your weekend…I have lots of boxes to pack for an upcoming house move…which would be very exciting if I knew where I was moving to. Maybe I’ll just have another holiday to Spain.…

Monday 2nd October 2023

Some rain today but high pressure building from tomorrow – and probably exceptionally warm for the time of year by the weekend. Clearly we had enough autumn in July.

Thanks to Mel for the photograph.

A tricky forecast for today, it starts cloudy and dull, perhaps a splash of light rain. A weather front will develop in situ, likely a bit further north than here but we’ll still get some showery rain this afternoon and into the evening. However, the complex part is that some thundery downpours will probably also develop to the south of the main weather front, ie over our area – potentially torrential with at least some thunder/lightning, but whether they are widespread, or just very localised with many places missing them, is uncertain. Reaching around 20’C – still unseasonably warm, and some hazy sunshine possible at times this afternoon, in between whatever bits of showery rain/thundery downpours we have. Cloudy with occasionally bits of showery rain overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the warmth is pushed away for Tuesday, but high pressure will be close by, ready to build.

Any early cloud will clear quickly, to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A couple of scattered heavy showers will develop during the morning, around a 50% chance of catching one, possibly with a rumble of thunder. During the afternoon, these fade, still a small chance of a light shower, but otherwise fair with sunny spells and some cloud. A fresher feel and rather breezy, but still reaching 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure start to build – quite a bit of cloud around, and sunshine more of the hazy variety. Reaching around 17’C and breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight though generally with some high cloud, down to around 9’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though it should be bright, and thinning enough for some weak hazy sunshine at times. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Weather fronts will pass close to our north overnight, there may be some patchy rain but uncertain – 60/40 it stays dry. Otherwise cloudy and around 11’C.

On Friday, high pressure makes more of a move north. We likely keep a veil of high/mid-level cloud, though as the day goes on the more this should thin, perhaps break – so hazy sunshine is the more likely outcome, but perhaps some clear skies later. Warm, 20’C, maybe 21’C. A mild night, around 14’C.

By Saturday, high pressure is likely (not 100% certain but good enough for now) to be pushing an exceptionally warm air mass north.

Likely sunny, perhaps some high cloud around, and temperatures reaching a very warm 25’C, perhaps a tad more. Down to around 15’C overnight.

Sunday should be very similar, long spells of sunshine, a bit of high cloud perhaps, and reaching somewhere in the range of 24’C to 26’C.

Monday likely remains on the warm side, though confidence is reducing.

Not especially high confidence, but a suggestion that it cools down later next week with a more northerly or north-westerly flow – and it will feel more like autumn.

Weak signals for something more changeable through mid-month with more in the way of rain or showers, and an ongoing signal for the second half of the month to be warmer than normal overall (though I’m not really pushing the boat out there!).…

Wednesday 27th September 2023

Warmer than normal with high pressure trying to take control – though not having its own way entirely.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

So the general picture for today sees Storm Agnes moving in – not really a story for us down here, the warmth from the continent is more notable.

It will be mostly cloudy for us today, though some bright spells are possible as the cloud should be quite thin at times. The bulk of the rain stays to our north-west, but the odd showery bit is possible – and probable during the evening. Becoming windy, though nothing unusual for us, and reaching around 21’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy, but the cloud will be thin enough to allow for hazy sunshine. Temperatures a bit lower, around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Still breezy. Cloudy with some showery rain in the evening and overnight, a fairly warm night at around 15’C.

Some cloud still possible to start the day on Friday, but it will clear to leave good spells of sunshine – a bit of fair weather cloud, and perhaps some high-level cloud to make it hazy. Reaching around 20’C, or a shade under. Fairly clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 7’C.

By Saturday we see high pressure rising from the south.

So we are looking at fine and settled weather, though sunshine is likely of the hazy variety due to a spell of rain to our west. Reaching around 18’C. Reasonably clear skies at first overnight, though likely clouding over later. Not chilly, though temperatures a bit uncertain – in the range of 10’C to 14’C.

Sunday has a bit of uncertainty – becoming much warmer, but also a weak weather front will bring some cloud and perhaps a bit of light rain at some unknown point. Hazy sunshine otherwise and temperatures in the range of 21’C to 24’C – not bad for the first day of October! Likely fairly cloudy overnight – a small chance of some showers, and around 13’C.

Monday looks warm, though with a chance of heavy showers – that part is quite uncertain.

Fresher for Tuesday.

High pressure is then likely to build over the UK for Wednesday, for at least a couple of days – quite warm by day but likely chilly nights too. Perhaps it might even become warmer for the weekend, some more 20’C days are certainly very possible – I still expect a warmer and drier October than normal.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – I’m out of my usual pattern thanks to Gatwick’s air traffic control deciding that I needed an extra night in Spain. Maybe Saturday/Sunday if I can find time!…

Friday 22nd September 2023

Hello from sunny again Spain, to sunnier soon Britain.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Early cloud will clear to leave sunny spells for the morning. Cloud will bubble up from around midday with a scattering of showers developing, some heavy – around a 75% chance of catching a couple, but you may miss them all. Reaching around 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Saturday we see a ridge of high pressure building from the south – with the remnants of Hurricane Nigel merging with low pressure to our west.

It leaves us with a fine day, sunny spells and variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Around 17’C, maybe squeezing an 18’C. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight as weather fronts try to push in from the west – down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud perhaps thick enough for a splash of rain but most likely the rain will stay further west/north. Sunshine amounts likely to increase later in the day. Warmer though quite windy, 19’C, maybe 20’C. The weather front crosses overnight, bringing mostly cloud and the odd spot of rain. No lower than around 15’C.

Monday may start cloud from the overnight weather front but it will clear to leave good spells of sunshine, a bit of fair weather cloud and it will be warm – around 22’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though there is a chance of importing a heavy shower from France. Down to around 13’C.

Tuesday is where things start to break down in terms of confidence, but broadly warm, with variable amounts of cloud, some sunshine at times but also a chance of some heavy showers. Around 21’C, give or take.

By Wednesday things are very much up in the air. Likely still on the warm side, but otherwise uncertain – potentially wet or very wet though.

It does look like the jetstream will be re-invigorated as next week goes on, but the track is a little uncertain – generally from Wednesday onwards it should remain quite warm, or warm, but on some days there will be wind and rain – other days fine and pleasant. Getting the day-to-day pattern looks a little off, maybe will take a couple more days of model runs to sort this out.

October still broadly looks warmer and drier than normal, due to an expected high pressure block close to our west – though this certainly does not preclude spells of rain too, depending on where low pressure gets stuck due to the block.

I’m off to go find a castle and then some sangria. Enjoy your weekend!…

Tuesday 19th September 2023

Hola from sunny…cloudy Spain. A day of cloud and showers for me, a week of rain, showers and wind for you.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the Atlantic in control, though still a warm source of air.

Today will be mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of rain at times. Some occasional brightness, especially later in the day when it should be dry most of the time. Windy, and around 18’C. A fairly cloudy and warm night, windy too, no lower than 16’C with the odd bit of showery light-ish rain around.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, a few bright spells possible, the odd shower too. A band of heavy rain will arrive around 11am, give or take, and bring at least 5-6 hours of mostly heavy rain, perhaps very heavy, some notably strong gusts of wind too. 19’C before the rain arrives, 16’C during – and a bit humid. Further pulses of heavy rain may spread up from the south/south-west into the evening – though eventually it will clear east. Skies will clear, winds become light and temperatures drop to around 9’C.

Low pressure still close by for Thursday but we start with sunny spells – perhaps hazy at first with any hangover from the night before’s rain. Heavy showers will developing during the morning, you may miss them but more likely you get a few, perhaps with hail and/or thunder mixed in, some very heavy downpours possible too. Around 17’C and feeling fresher. Variable cloud overnight, some showers possible, down to around 10’C.

Friday starts with sunny spells, but cloud will bubble up with showers breaking out. More likely you get at least a couple of showers – some heavy, but perhaps you miss them. Around 16’C and breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 7’C.

Saturday is a reasonable day as high pressure starts to build once more. Sunny spells for the morning, more in the way of cloud for the afternoon but pleasant enough. Around 16’C. Cloudier overnight, perhaps a bit of showery rain, around 12’C.

By Sunday, we see an ex-hurricane merging with low pressure to our west, helping to drive warmer air once more our way.

Some uncertainty on conditions for Sunday – it will depend on where the weather front is. At worst, cloudy with bits of showery rain, at best hazy sunshine – either way, warm and a bit humid – between 18’C and 22’C depending on sunshine amounts.

Next week starts warm/very warm – probably sunny, though I wouldn’t rule out a weather front being in the mix at some point.…

Friday 15th September 2023

The warmth returns, but low pressure develops too.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This morning sees long spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up from around lunchtime, but there will still be some sunny spells – and increasingly so later on. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear spells for the first half of the night, more cloud later, down to around 12’C.

So for Saturday the general picture is one of low pressure developing, centred to the west of Portugal, which makes for a tricky forecast – low pressure will be edging towards Iceland from North America too, which will be for us next week.

Saturday most likely sees sunny spells, albeit likely hazy sunshine. A small chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon but unlikely as it stands. Very warm, temperatures around 25’C, maybe 26’C. A fairly cloudy and fairly warm night, minimum temperatures around 16’C – some thundery showers will attempt to push north, though how far they get is uncertain – so maybe around a 25% chance of some thunder/rain.

Sunday looks like seeing a band of thundery rain spread north – you may just get a bit of patchy rain, you may get a proper thundery downpour – quite uncertain on details and it will be until the morning. Likely followed by hazy sunshine, and it will be warm and humid, around 22’C. Further thundery downpours possible in the evening and overnight – though hit and miss, you may get nothing or just a bit of rain, you may instead get a couple of notable downpours/thunderstorms. Fairly warm, down to around 16’C.

By Monday the low pressure near Iceland is heading our way, and will scoop up the remnants of the Portuguese thundery low.

A somewhat complicated picture, but broadly speaking sunny spells and showers – though showers likely to come in organised bands, probably heavy at times. Quite windy, perhaps notably gusty in heaviest showers, and temperatures around 20’C. Clear spells overnight though a stray shower possible, around 10’C.

By Tuesday we are in a westerly flow – the Atlantic back in gear. Uncertainty on the track of low pressure systems at this stage, but either sunshine and showers, or cloudy with rain. Quite windy and around 17’C.

Wednesday again sees showers or rain – though a bit warmer, closer to 20’C.

Thursday…showers or rain.

You get the theme, and I need to start work! The Atlantic very much taking over for our first proper autumnal spell with rain or showers most days, and generally quite windy, perhaps strong winds at times.

Good timing for one to go on holiday to Spain! Forecasts should still happen from myself, as long as the wi-fi is decent enough. Enjoy the warm sunshine this weekend whilst you can (if you can).…

Tuesday 12th September 2023

More warmth and sunshine to come, but some cloud and showers in the mix too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy, the odd scattered shower around – and a bit of brightness. Perhaps more in the way of sunny spells this afternoon, but still plenty of cloud, and now a scattering of heavy showers, thunder possible. Warm and humid, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Showers fading in the evening, then an area of cloud slowly sinks south, perhaps a spot of light rain at times, temperatures around 14’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy. Gradually the sun will break through, and it will become mostly sunny by around lunchtime, give or take. Fair-weather cloud bubbling up during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower but most places dry. Fresher, 20’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

There’s not a lot happening in the general North Atlantic/Europe area in terms of forcing on our weather – though weather fronts will try to push down from the north-west on Thursday, unsuccessfully.

Generally Thursday sees hazy sunshine, quite a lot of high cloud and fair-weather cloud, but it will be warm, if not very warm and a tad humid once more. Around 23’C, maybe 24’C. The weather front to our north heads further north overnight, we’ll remain with high cloud and temperatures down to around 13’C – a chance of mist/fog/low cloud by dawn.

Friday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud clear fairly quickly, leaving good spells of sunshine, albeit somewhat hazy at times. Most likely quite hot once more, say in the range of 25’C to 27’C – however it does depend on how close the weather front is, and hence how much high cloud there is – certainly plausible that we are closer to the 22’C to 24’C range. A fairly warm night – a chance of some heavy showers breaking out.

And then time for some fun and games.

What looks likely to happen is an elongated area of low pressure develops, stretching from Portugal, through France, and into the UK – tapping into the warmth and humidity.

This leaves conditions highly uncertain for the weekend, but the more likely outcome is for it to be quite hot, with thundery downpours – some sunny spells at times. More likely temperatures broadly in the range of 25’C to 29’C and notably humid. A lower chance that instead we are stuck under general cloud and rain, with temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 22’C. A warm night likely, say around 18’C, with further heavy, showery rain very possible.

Sunday most likely is in the same vein – very warm, humid, some sunny spells possible but more likely some heavy, thundery downpours – perhaps torrential, a small chance of large hail and frequent lightning.

It should be fresher by Monday – and next week most likely reverts to a westerly theme, with wind, rain and showers. But likely warmer than normal!

Perhaps warmer and drier towards the end of September once more. Unusually warmer? We’ll see. I wonder if we’ll end up recording the warmest ever September – in the same year that we recorded the warmest ever June.…