Thursday 26th August 2021

High pressure remains in control to our north-west. Not the warmest or sunniest of positions, so there will be cloudy spells along with some sunshine. But it will be mostly dry, bar the odd light shower.

I doubt that I’ll get all the cloud/sunshine amounts correct, so you may find it cloudier or sunnier than I forecast, though Monday’s forecast was similar in uncertainty – but mostly correct.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees a mixture of cloudier and clear spells, down to around 12’C.

For Friday we see high pressure situated over NW Britain, with a cooler north-easterly flow for SE England.

It will be quite a cloudy day, but with some sunny spells at times, especially late afternoon and into the evening which should be mostly sunny. The breeze taking the edge off, 20’C or just under. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday morning looks quite cloudy, but with some sunny spells. A small chance of a light shower. Slowly the amount of sunshine should increase during the afternoon, with it being mostly sunny by late afternoon and into the evening. 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday is more of the same though overall there should be more sunshine than cloud. Some cloud at times, perhaps mostly cloudy occasionally, but overall there should be more sunshine than cloud. The light north-easterly breeze again taking the edge off, around 21’C. Probably more cloud overnight, around 12’C.

Bank Holiday Monday probably sees more cloud than sunshine overall, with a focus for the cloud being more likely in the morning, sunny spells more likely in the afternoon. Still a light breeze though the source of the breeze less cool, so maybe scraping 22’C – a small chance of a light shower also. Rather cloudy overnight, 13’C.

There isn’t really much point in a day to day breakdown for Tuesday to Thursday – it’s too far away to have much of an idea on cloud amounts, it could be mostly cloudy, it could be mostly sunny or anything in between. 22’C if sunny, a few less if mostly cloudy.

By Friday things become more uncertain, with the chance of more changeable conditions spreading across from the west starting to increase. We could easily scrape another couple of days of dry, fine weather, we could even end with a short quite hot southerly – small chance, but possible.

Basically next weekend is uncertain at this stage. It often is, so nothing new there. If I’m pushed, then I’d say staying fine, warmish for Friday and Saturday, increased chance of showers on Sunday. But very low confidence.

Generally a more changeable picture looks likely after that, some rain and showers, some sunshine at times, temperatures around normal – but chances of short very warm or notably cool spells too.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend. I have a whole 5 days off work, thought I’d treat myself to a well-needed break and go nowhere. Well, I shall make it to the pub…oh…actually I’m going to Reading for the day on Sunday…first time for a long time. Anyway, enjoy!…

Monday 23rd August 2021

High pressure is in charge. Woohoo! However (and it being summer 2021 there is always a however), it is centred to our north-west, which does mean easterly or north-easterly flows so there will be some cloud at times, and temperatures around average or a little below – however (a good however) a little below average is still warm at this time of year.

Possibly the least complained about weather possible – mostly dry, some sunshine, not hot, not cold.

Let’s put some details on.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Clear spells tonight, some cloud at times, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK, centred towards Scotland which is where the sunniest and warmest weather will be – as has happened quite a bit this summer.

It will be a pleasant day with good spells of sunshine, though some cloud around especially early morning and later in the day. Warm, 23’C seems feasible. Some clear spells overnight though more in the way of cloud, particularly later in the night, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks cloudier, though some uncertainty. More likely rather cloudy but bright, with some short sunny breaks – but it could be notably sunnier, or notably overcast too. Around 22’C. Cloudy overnight, 14’C.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. The sun should come out as the cloud tends back to the east coast, so it should become a pleasant day – but it is not certain. Assuming decent spells of sunshine, we’ll reach around 22’C. Plenty of cloud overnight, though some breaks, 13’C.

Friday again has uncertainty over cloud amounts. Likely more cloud in the morning, and fair in the afternoon with some half-decent sunny spells – but something mostly sunny or mostly cloudy cannot be ruled out. Around 21’C, perhaps a shade less. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday is very similar, still some uncertainty over cloud amounts, but the more likely outcome sees some decent sunny spells, but also some cloud at times too. Warm, 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

More of the same for Sunday.

Again, educated guesses for cloud amounts based on what wind direction the models are showing, but I’d suggest overall more cloud than sun, but some sunny spells and around 21’C.

Bank Holiday Monday should be broadly similar, quite cloudy but some sunny spells at times, and around 21’C.

I stress not to take too seriously the forecasts for cloud amounts each day, as they are a best guess – and any day could end up sunnier or cloudier than my current estimate. Subtle changes in the position of high pressure and the wind direction will make a large difference in cloud amounts…and your pinch of salt should be larger the further in the distance it is.

But – that isn’t too bad, is it?

Most likely outcome for next week is conditions to remain broadly similar – fine, some sunshine, some cloud, temperatures around average or a little below.…

Thursday 19th August 2021

Well we nearly had a hot and sunny Saturday. Nearly.

The pattern is nudging east a bit quicker than expected, and I suspect due to the hurricane forming and heading towards eastern US – this means that showers arrive during the day on Saturday rather than evening/overnight – though on the bright side it does mean that this coming low pressure pushes through quickly, instead of hanging around for 5 days like so many have this summer.

Next week does look dry and there might even be some sunshine. Gosh.

Thanks to Katherine for the photograph.

One or two scattered heavy showers around this evening. Dry from late evening, some clear spells but more cloud overall. A small chance of one or two fog patches by dawn – but likely to be isolated in nature. Down to around 13’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy, but warm. Some sunny breaks possible, more likely morning and late afternoon/evening, but mostly cloudy – the odd light shower possible. 22’C, maybe a tad more. Some clear spells at first overnight but clouding over later, perhaps some mist/fog in places too. A warmer night than of later, no lower than 15’C.

Saturday sees our next barely-existing low pressure trough cross the country. Sigh.

It will be mostly cloudy with showery rain crossing the country, from around mid-morning onwards though timing uncertain. Some brightness at times, and it will feel warm and humid – it won’t always be raining. However as the afternoon goes on, some of the showery bits could be very heavy, a small chance of thunder too. Around 22’C, assuming a bit of brightness. Once the main band of showers clears, roughly late afternoon, there should be more sunshine but also still some scattered very heavy showers, possibly thundery. Fairly cloudy overnight, showers possible, around 14’C.

Sunday sees low pressure already having just about cleared to our east. Cloudy spells, more likely in the morning, some sunny spells (some), more likely in the afternoon. Some showers also, more likely quite light/moderate in the morning, more likely quite heavy in the afternoon – but nothing especially heavy likely, and some places will miss them. 20’C. Likely mostly cloudy overnight, around 15’C.

Monday starts to see high pressure building, albeit to our north which isn’t the sunniest or warmest area for us. A bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts, but more likely more cloud in the morning, more sunshine in the afternoon, and around 22’C. Clear skies overnight, chance of some cloud towards dawn, down to around 12’C.

For Tuesday we have high pressure close to our north, with an easterly wind – though easterlies are normally still warm in August.

It should be a case of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – but there is always a chance of more general low cloud from an easterly, though at the moment it is only possible rather than likely. Assuming the relatively sunny scenario, around 21’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday to Friday will all be quite similar. Dry, some good sunny spells at times, but also some cloudy periods. Impossible to say when the cloudy periods will be at this stage – but if a good chunk of a day is cloudy, then temperatures closer to 18’C, if a good chunk of a day is sunny, then around 23’C.

The most likely outcome for the bank holiday weekend is similar to the week before – dry, some sunny spells, some cloudy spells, and warmish. Around a 65% chance. A 20% chance of something showery, or a 15% chance of sunny and very warm/quite hot.

Things are improving.…

Monday 16th August 2021

I hope you like cloud.

It will be mostly dry this week bar the odd shower, and there will be some brightness at times, along with some sunny spells – but cloud is the main theme.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Clear spells for the first half of the night, becoming cloudy later from the north, down to around 11’C.

For Tuesday we have high pressure to our west, low pressure to our east, with a north-westerly flow.

It will be mostly cloudy, a little light rain or drizzle possible, more likely in the morning – with limited sunny spells. Breezy and just about getting to 20’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain or drizzle possible, and mild, around 14’C.

Wednesday will again be mostly cloudy. There will be some bright/sunny spells at times, but the main theme will be cloud. Around 21’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells, down to around 13’C.

Thursday sees low pressure starting to push in from the west – again, a lot of cloud around but there will be some sunny spells at times. Also a few heavy showers breaking out in the afternoon, fairly hit and miss, say around a 40% chance of catching a shower. Around 21’C. Clear spells overnight though cloud probably thickening before dawn, around 12’C.

Friday sees the approaching low pressure system stall to our west, allowing a brief southerly flow.

Don’t get too excited as there will be plenty of cloud, but there will be some sunshine at times, more likely in the morning and from late afternoon, and it will feel warmer, say 23’C. But if sunshine amounts surprise, then add a few degrees on. Clear spells overnight and mild, 15’C. A chance of mist/fog forming before dawn.

Saturday is uncertain at this stage and depends on how close the stalled and weakening low pressure system to our west is. The slightly more likely outcome is that it is close to our west and we end up with sunny spells or hazy sunshine, and temperatures somewhere around 26’C. However, the slightly less likely outcome sees a more progressive move of the low pressure system over the UK, with some heavy downpours and temperatures around 21’C.

Two very different possible outcomes, and around 55/45 in a percentage split. Humid whichever outcome though.

A good chance of heavy showers overnight from either outcome, and if we had the hot and sunny day then thunderstorms may well occur overnight.

Sunday is again uncertain. The more likely outcomes see heavy showers, but that could be sunshine and heavy showers, or cloudier with showers/showery rain. However, there is a small chance of keeping the hot and sunny weather from Saturday.

Next week should see high pressure building close to or over the UK. Positioning uncertain though at the moment it doesn’t look favourable for hot weather, more likely warm or very warm conditions.

It should be reasonably sunny, though there may be some cloud at times, depending on where the high pressure situates itself. Showers still possible Monday/Tuesday.

Early signs for the bank holiday weekend are promising – the most likely outcome would be warm/very warm with sunny spells. However, a showery spell could instead be possible – looking at roughly a 75/25 split in terms of likelihood.

Also possible the high pressure could orientate itself either for bank holiday weekend or early September so that we import something hot from the south. Small chances, but worth keeping an eye on.

And tentative signs of some more warm sunshine in September, but we’ll see – my forecasts have been too optimistic in terms of sunshine quite a few times this summer.…

Thursday 12th August 2021

It’s a long way from glorious, but the somewhat improved weather will continue. A bit of a mix for this weekend and next week, some cloud, some sun, a bit of rain but nothing like of late.

I guess you want some details.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Quite cloudy with evening, a small chance of a (probably) light shower and a bit of brightness too. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Friday starts with some sunny spells, but cloud will quickly bubble up. Rather cloudy for the rest of the morning and around lunchtime, a chance of a little drizzle or light rain, but then slowly becoming somewhat sunnier during the afternoon and evening. Warm, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

For Saturday, we see the low pressure system approaching from the south-west though staying to our west for now – if you read on Monday you may remember that the track was causing some problems for accurate forecasting.

Some sunny spells possible first thing, but the low pressure will bring quite a lot of cloud with it for much of the morning and into the early part of the afternoon, if not for longer. A chance of a little patchy light rain but nothing notable – and there will be some sunny spells at times, more likely later in the afternoon. Reaching around 23’C, though if sunshine amounts surprise, 25’C not out of the question. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday see the low pressure system edge east towards us, but becomes a weak feature. Still a bit of uncertainty over exact details, but there will be some very warm sunshine at times, some cloud and a few showers – not likely to be heavy. Very warm, around 24’C but plausible a bit higher. Quite cloudy at first overnight, with the odd bit of rain, clear spells later and down to around 12’C.

Monday sees our low pressure system having moved to our east (instead of hanging around like so many have this summer…I think sign of the pattern change I have been mentioning), and a strong build of high pressure to our west.

Not the warmest or sunniest set-up, but it’s August so it is still reasonable. Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, sometimes rather sunny, sometimes rather cloudy with a light shower possible. Around 20’C and breezy. Probably clear skies overnight and assuming so, it could be a tad chilly for August, say down to around 10’C.

Tuesday likely starts sunny but also likely becomes cloudy quickly, and stays mostly cloudy. A small chance of a light shower. Around 19’C and still breezy. Likely rather cloudy overnight, 14’C.

Wednesday likely rather cloudy too – uncertainty at this stage as to how much cloudy, but likely more cloud than sun overall, perhaps mostly cloudy all day. Around 20’C.

Thursday very similar to Wednesday, expect lots of cloud.

And, well, probably rather cloudy on Friday but a bit more hope for some sunshine, and temperatures still around 20’C.

Low confidence for next weekend but the trend seems to be high pressure slowly moving east towards the UK, which will increase both sunshine amounts and temperatures, perhaps to being quite hot.

Whether that happens in time for next weekend or the week after (or doesn’t happen) is unknown at this stage, but I’d say the slightly more likely outcome for next weekend is something fairly sunny and very warm/quite hot.

Assuming this happens, then it could be a rather pleasant and summer-like end to August, with a small chance of becoming hot or even very hot by the end, depending on where high pressure ends up – though more likely we stay warm/very warm.…

Monday 9th August 2021

For those tempted to give up on the idea of summer, things are about to improve. Warmer, drier and sunnier this – though none of them are particular difficult to achieve in comparison to late.

Nothing special, but a big improvement.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Further heavy showers this evening though they will become fewer and start to fade later in the evening, and will all have faded by around midnight. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday still has quite a lot of cloud around, especially in the morning, though with some sunny spells and probably initially rather sunny. Sunshine amounts increasing as the afternoon goes on. Probably dry, but a light/moderate shower cannot be ruled out. 21’C. Some cloud overnight, though mostly high level, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure across the south of the UK – with low pressure to the west, in the Atlantic.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud in the morning, I think likely more cloud than sun from around lunchtime onwards, but reasonably pleasant. Warm, 23’C. Quite cloudy overnight, though some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Thursday starts rather cloudy due to a weak weather front – perhaps a spot of light rain. It will break up to leave some decent sunny spells for the afternoon. Around 23’C – perhaps more if the cloud breaks up quicker. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud at times also, down to around 13’C.

Friday is the last day that I can be confident for in this forecast. The previously mentioned low pressure to our west will be over Scotland – further north than of late thanks to the jetstream being further north.

But another low pressure system to the south-west looks tricky to forecast.

So Friday overall probably sees more cloud than sun, but there will be sunny spells especially later in the afternoon. An outside chance of a shower. Around 23’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 13’C.

The weekend is highly uncertain still.

If forced to choose, then I’d suggest more cloud than sunshine on Saturday and warm, more sunshine than cloud on Sunday and very warm – with the low pressure either staying west or maybe not even making it to the UK. Until this tricky low pressure to our south-west is resolved, the forecast for the weekend will be uncertain and next week impossible in any detail. Rain or showers will remain possible outcomes instead.

My best suggestion for next week is a mixture of some very warm days with some sunshine, and some unsettled days with rain/showers. But it could easily be a wash-out, or even a notably sunny and warm week. I stress, lots of uncertainty and a very messy picture.

Suggestions remain that drier, sunnier and warmer conditions become more likely as the month goes on, and perhaps even hot later on. But fairly low confidence.…

Thursday 5th August 2021

More heavy showers to come this weekend…but some warm sunshine on some days next week.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

This evening will remain cloudy with further showers, and overnight will be fairly cloudy, a few clear spells and also a few scattered showers in the wind. Mild at 14’C.

Friday sees low pressure sat over the north of Britain, and it isn’t really going anywhere for a few days.

Sunny spells and heavy showers is the theme again, showers possible from dawn but more likely in the afternoon – and there could be quite a cluster of heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible too. More cloud than sun, but there will be some sunny spells. Reaching around 21’C and quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C – a small chance of some heavy showers towards sunrise.

Saturday will see frequent heavy showers. Possible, if not probable from dawn, they could be very heavy with thunder. A small chance of hail and gusty winds. A bit of sunshine at times, but overall more cloud than sun – you may even get a 2-3 hour slot with no showers depending on how they form. 20’C at best and still notably breezy. Showers still in the evening – probably dry overnight though still a chance of a stray shower, some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Lower chances of showers for Sunday as our low pressure system drifts north, but still around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple. But drier for longer, a bit more sunshine and around 20’C. A risk of a cluster of heavy showers for around early evening – but an uncertain development at this stage. Quite cloudy overnight, a risk of a shower or two still.

Monday starts to see the Azores High push in from the south-west. It remains uncertain as to whether this can be a longer term change or it is just a blip in the previous pattern – I was more semi-confident when I last wrote that it might be a pattern change – I’m more doubtful now, the background signals have gone into reverse.

We’ll see. Anyway…a bit of an improvement for Monday. Some reasonable sunny spells, still plenty of cloud around and a 40% chance of a heavy shower. Temperatures reaching around 21’C or so. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday could be dry. I cannot totally rule out a light shower and there will be plenty of cloud still – likely more cloud than sun overall. Feeling warmer, around 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday likely starts dry and bright/sunny. However, weather systems to our north (the jetstream will have finally located back north where it should be in summer) will likely bring a weather front down at some point in the day/night, bringing some patchy rain. Timing is uncertain at this stage, so if it doesn’t arrive until evening/overnight then maybe 24’C is ours.

Thursday looks dry, warm with some sunny spells – and also some cloud around, but hopefully more sunshine than cloud overall. Around 23’C.

Friday becomes more uncertain – and depends on how close to our north low pressure is. It will probably be far enough north for us to stay dry, but questions remain on sunshine amounts and temperatures, though more likely warm/very warm.

Next weekend is highly uncertain. It could easily end up hot and sunny – yet it could easily end up cool and wet. Or anything in between.

Looking any further ahead of that is unsurprisingly uncertain. I’m still leaning towards this being a pattern change, and there being more warm/hot sunshine than we’ve seen recently – but it being quite changeable, so some variation in temperatures and also some short unsettled spells too. Bit of a mix, but an improved one.

Tentative signs of something more settled, and perhaps hot, either for roughly around the end of August or beginning of September.…

Monday 2nd August 2021

Another unsettled week, thanks to the southerly-tracking jetstream.

And thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

This evening sees slow-moving heavy showers – thunder possible as are some torrential downpours – but also some places staying dry. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 12’C – a small chance of mist or fog in a few spots by dawn.

Tuesday is another day of sunshine and heavy showers. Again plenty of cloud but more sunshine than today, and some places staying dry – around a 60% chance of catching one or two showers. 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C and again a chance of a little mist/fog in a few spots by dawn.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up again – at the moment it looks like the main focus for heavy showers will be further north than us, but still one or two scattered heavy showers possible, so around a 25% chance of catching one. Still some reasonable sunny spells and warm, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday sees the next area of low pressure arrive from the west.

Lots of cloud, a little bit of sunshine and frequent heavy showers pushing in on the notable westerly breeze. Showers more frequent and more likely to be heavy in the afternoon, perhaps very heavy, thunder possible too. A small chance of hail. Feeling fresher, around 19’C. Further showers into the evening, mostly cloudy overnight with the odd scattered shower still possible. Down to around 14’C.

Further heavy showers for Friday. Suggestions of less showers later in the afternoon but a little tentative – and overall they should be less frequent than Thursday, but still heavy with thunder possible. Some sunny spells and warmer again, around 22’C. Probably dry overnight with clear spells, down to around 12’C.

Saturday sees…yep…more heavy showers. Some sunny spells, but frequent heavy showers likely, perhaps very heavy/torrential, with thunder possible and a smaller chance of hail. Around 21’C. Likely dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday should be a bit of an improvement – still a chance of a shower, but more in the way of sunny spells and temperatures around 22’C.

Next week should start to see the Azores High pushing further east (it has been notably far west in recent weeks), the jetstream start to push north and incidentally more favourable conditions for hurricane development towards the equator – all part of the same broad and notable change in weather pattern that I expect, which should suit us more favourably in terms of sunshine and warmth going forwards.

I don’t expect next week to be dry throughout, at some point there will likely be some heavy showers, perhaps even another area of low pressure to bring 2-3 showers days or some general rain.

But overall there should be more sunshine, more dry days, more influence from the Azores High as it tries to push east…as I said, it won’t be smooth sailing but it is the start of a change in weather pattern (I think). Temperatures probably warm/very warm – some quite hot and/or slightly cooler days possible depending on how the high positions itself.

And generally I am hopeful for more in the way of warm sunshine, perhaps hot at times, for the latter half of August – though I’d like to see the pattern change actually happen, or at least get closer, before expressing too much confidence.

Still no strong thoughts on September, but I’d currently say balancing out at drier and warmer than normal is more likely – but will depend on said pattern change.…

Thursday 29th July 2021

Some rain, some wind, some showers, some sunshine. It could be any month really.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – a rare industrial background.

Later this evening and overnight will see bands of showery rain cross from the west, possibly heavy, breezy too and down to around 14’C.

Friday sees a cut-off low crossing the south of England, that the Met Office have named Storm Evert, though it won’t be anything disruptive for us.

Sunshine and heavy showers will be the order – though sunshine fairly limited and showers very frequent – perhaps merging into a longer spell of heavy rain roughly around lunchtime for a couple of hours. Showers heavy, perhaps very heavy with thunder. Windy too and temperatures around 19’C. Showers fading fairly quickly in the evening, then a mixture of clear and cloudy spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday is another day of sunshine and heavy showers. A bit more sunshine than Friday, warmer too – we should reach 21’C, maybe 22’C. But those showers will be heavy, perhaps very heavy with thunder. You might get lucky and miss them all – possible, but unlikely. Showers fading in the evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday sees a bit more sunshine overall and fewer showers. Showers should be focused further south towards the coast, but there will still be a few dotted around in our area, and it could be heavy. Still not amazing amounts of sunshine, but more than recent and tending to be more later in the day. Around 21’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Similar for Monday, some sunny spells, some cloud, some scattered showers, possibly heavy. Around 20’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Another slight improvement for Tuesday (unless you are really loving the cloud and showers). More sunshine though still plenty of fair-weather cloud, lower chances of a shower but still possible. Around 21’C.

Suggestions of more organised heavy showers on Wednesday but this is pushing the possibilities for accuracy really.

Thursday and into Friday, it looks like the jetstream is going to dive even further south, into France or perhaps even northern Spain – taking the bulk of the rain there – but we’ll still see sunshine and scattered heavy showers. Unusual for it to go so far south in mid-summer – but unusual things happen in weather.

Next weekend is a fair way away, but I’d be surprised if it didn’t feature heavy showers or general rain. As I mentioned last week, this pattern looks to be set in for a little while – at least until around 10th August.

The week after may see an improvement – it was the date that I had pencilled in as the earliest realistic date for a change, for the jetstream to move back north and for us to end up on the warmer and drier side.

Still needs a bit of time to confirm – the unsettled/showery spell could easily continue, or perhaps it will be changeable for a few more days but an improvement in sunshine amounts.

I do have more hope for warmer and sunnier weather later in August. September unknown still.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 26th July 2021

Well, it isn’t a summer week ahead – but isn’t a washout either. Changeable, some sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud, some showers – perhaps some general rain. Temperatures a little below normal – but at this time of year that is still warm.

So it could definitely be worse.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

A small chance of a heavy shower this evening but more likely staying dry, fairly cloudy overnight with a few showers pushing through, a quite a warm night at around 16’C.

By Tuesday, our weekend low pressure system has become a very large trough over the UK, stretching to Iceland in the north-west, Norway to our north-east and at least half-way into France to our south – this will dominate our weather this week.

It will be a day of sunshine and heavy showers. Sunshine fairly limited, most places seeing a few heavy showers, thunder possible – but feasible that you could miss them all, say 85% chance of a few showers. We lose the warmer air aloft, so maximum temperatures around 20’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is another day of sunshine and showers. Not too much sunshine – and lots of showers, most places likely to have at least a few, they could be very heavy, thunder/hail very possible. Also notably breezy, verging on windy. Just about squeezing 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

For Thursday it looks like the focus of the shower activity will be further north, and we’ll have a reasonably pleasant day. A fair amount of sunshine but also a fair amount of cloud too. Reaching around 21’C.

Some uncertainty for Thursday night into Friday. There is a good chance, say around 60%, of an area of general heavy/very heavy rain moving up from the south-west. Some uncertainty over whether it will happen – and then uncertainty on timing – it could arrive anywhere as early as Thursday evening or maybe not until Friday morning.

So Friday may start with some heavy rain – as I mentioned in the previous paragraph this is uncertain. Either way sunshine and scattered showers will be the main theme – nothing especially heavy or frequent expected. Around 20’C.

By Saturday our resident low pressure trough has moved to Scandinavia.

So not too bad a day, some sunny spells but plenty of cloud. Still a few showers dotted around, say a 40% chance of catching one or two, possibly on the heavy side. Reaching around 21’C in a northerly flow. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday looks reasonably fair. Sunny spells, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, warm, around 22’C. Just a small chance of a shower but most likely dry. Clear spells overnight, around 13’C.

Monday looks similar, sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud and a chance of a heavy shower. Around 22’C.

The more likely outcome for the rest of next week sees a new low pressure trough arrive from the west/north-west at some point, maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, which will lead us back to more organised and frequent heavy, thundery showers.

That’s around an 80% chance – the Azores high nudging in to the south of England, giving something drier and sunnier if nothing especially summery, still with a few showers, would be around a 20% chance.

A return to anything more consistently settled is not likely before around 10th August – as I mentioned, a 20% chance. And a return to settled conditions around 10th August is far from certain either, maybe around a 50% chance.…