Thursday 1st October 2020

Big shout out to all the ducks out there – this one’s for you.

Oh and a big shout out to Marion for the photograph.

Yes, lots of rain ahead. Lots and lots of rain.

This evening sees heavy showers spread up from the south, from the developing Storm Alex. Any time from 9pm, continuing overnight and becoming more persistent rain from the early hours onwards. Around 10’C and becoming windy.

Friday starts with Storm Alex centred just over the far north-west of France

The weather front with the overnight rain will still be there during the morning and will only very slowly move north. Some of the rain will be heavy, probably very heavy at times, especially around late morning.

From around midday, the main area should clear to our north, but there will be showers following, perhaps a little brightness also. Winds will be strong in the morning, a little less so during the afternoon, coming from the east. Around 14’C.

Rain again becomes heavy and persistent in the evening, and continues through the night – potentially very heavy at times. Around 13’C.

Saturday starts wet with more heavy rain. The band of rain will be very, very slowly heading west and will stall and stop moving any further west at some point. It’s a very close call on current modelling, but I’d say a 65% chance that it clears to our west and allows a spell of dry conditions with sunny spells from some point from midday onwards – though with showers still possible. Then overnight the band of rain likely pivots back this way, bringing further outbreaks of rain, though more showery in nature. Around 14’C by day, 10’C by night.

Instead, at around a 35% chance, the weather front may stall over us, continuing the heavy rain all afternoon and into much of the night.

Sunday sees low pressure right on top of the UK, though the main weather fronts should be further south and west of us.

Probably starting cloudy with some patchy rain, the sun should come out a bit, but lots of cloud and some showers around also – more general rain at times cannot be ruled out. Around 13’C. Further showers or general showery rain overnight, around 10’C.

Monday keeps the low pressure circulation over us though it will be losing its oomph. Quite a lot of cloud, some occasional showers or general showery rain, but also a bit of sunshine and some dry spells too. Around 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, still some showery rain possible, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday looks a breezy day with some sunny spells, but also a fair amount of scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C. Probably clear and chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday probably rather similar to Tuesday, some sunny spells but also some scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C.

Thursday and Friday likely stay in this cool north-westerly flow. Breezy, some heavy showers at times and temperatures around 13’C.

High pressure may start to build from the west by next weekend – the somewhat more likely outcome. Generally drier but still a chance of some showers, less likely to be heavy though. Remaining cool with notably chilly nights and sunshine amounts uncertain at this stage.

I still expect from around the middle of the month something of an improvement in terms of temperatures and less in the way of rain. Fog will be very possible in such a scenario.…

Monday 28th September 2020

Wet, wet, wet. After tomorrow, anyway. Low pressure is going to arrive and stall over the UK for several days – it will be tricky to forecast rain timings more than a day or two in advance as the low pressure area spirals around. But if you just take out of this forecast that it will rain a lot, you’ll have the idea!

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

This evening and tonight will be mostly cloudy, a weak weather front will bring some very occasional bits of showery rain, the odd heavy burst possible – but it will be dry most of the time. Around 13’C.

Tuesday morning will be mostly cloudy, the odd bit of rain possible but mostly dry. Sunshine will spread from the west in the afternoon, some cloud still around but pleasant. 18’C. Reasonably clear overnight, though some high cloud, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees the large and complex low pressure system that will dominate our weather for several days approach from the north-west.

The morning starts bright, but cloud will gradually thicken during the morning as a weather front approaches – the odd shower possible before it does. More persistent rain arriving either lunchtime or early afternoon, clearing roughly mid-evening, some heavy bursts possible. Reaching around 17’C and becoming quite windy. Variable cloud overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 10’C.

Thursday will see some sunny spells, with a small chance of a shower. Around 16’C. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, the shower chance increases and they could be heavy, though some uncertainty on this aspect. Uncertain overnight but a good chance of either heavy showers or general heavy rain.

By Friday, it looks like a quickly deepening centre of our low pressure will develop either over southern England or northern France.

Prolonged heavy rain is very likely, strong winds are also likely – but too early to be sure on the wind strength and also the timing of the rain. Temperatures around 12’C. Further spells of heavy rain overnight are probable – but again, no idea on timing of rain for Friday or Saturday yet.

Low pressure will still be firmly in charge on Saturday but impossible to know the position of weather fronts at that stage. Most likely there will be heavy rain at some point – a very small chance of a mostly dry day, a small chance that it could pour down all day – most likely something in between with spells of heavy rain at some point. Around 12’C, give or take, probably windy. Same story overnight!

Sunday is more of the same. Still the same area of low pressure that arrived on Wednesday circulating in the general area of the UK. Impossible to know where weather fronts will be, all I can say is that there is a good chance of heavy rain at some points day and night. Around 12’C and likely windy.

Suggestions that Monday might be drier (not going to suggest dry yet!) as low pressure slips away either east or south-east.

The next area of low pressure probably arrives on Tuesday, bringing more wind and rain, and probably hangs around for a while again.

With all the uncertain on rain timings, I will try to do morning updates before work, nearer the time, though Thursday’s forecast should clear things up.

Forecasts could upgrade to see some very heavy rain or gales at times, we could easily get stuck under bands of heavy rain for 12+ hours which may bring some localised flooding also.

One of the main models I follow is suggesting over 60mm of rain to have fallen by next Monday evening in our area – these charts of accumulated rainfall often overexaggerate but the potential is there for some high totals of rain if we do get stuck under slow moving heavy rain. The average for the whole of October is around 65mm I think.

Thursday 24th September 2020

A chilly weekend ahead and becoming much more unsettled next week as the jetstream fires up. At least the weather seems to sum up the national mood a bit better than sunshine right now!

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Tonight will be rather cloudy with the odd scattered shower, more likely towards dawn. Some clear spells also, down to around 7’C.

For Friday we have low pressure close to our east, bringing a chilly northerly flow – though a ridge of high pressure waiting out west.

It will start cloudy, perhaps a bit of showery rain. This gradually clears east to be replaced with increasing amounts of sunshine. Feeling rather cold in a strong northerly wind, 14’C. Clear skies overnight and that strong northerly wind continuing, down to around 6’C. Proper coats!

Saturday starts sunny but notably chilly. It looks like cloud will spread down from the north during the afternoon with a bit of showery rain. 13’C at a push and the northerly wind continuing – though not as strong as Friday. Some clear spells at first, but cloud tending to thicken from the east later in the night, perhaps bringing a bit of rain too, down to around 8’C.

Sunday is uncertain. The same low pressure from Thursday still very close to our east – the huge area of high pressure over Russia blocking its progress.

I think a mostly cloudy day is likely, but the uncertainty comes from exactly what the low pressure to our east does – latest models suggest that it tracks back west towards us and brings a spell of rain. Yet this could just be cloud with the rain having fizzled out – and a bright day is still possible. I am certain that it will again feel rather cold in the northerly wind, close to 11’C if raining, though 15’C if we get some brightness. I will endeavour to update nearer the time. It isn’t like I have anywhere to be going.

Monday looks rather cloudy, but there should be some sunny spells at times, more likely in the afternoon. We’ll have cut off the chilly air source and in a westerly flow be reaching around 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, around 10’C.

I’m not massively confident on Tuesday’s forecast, but broadly sunny spells with a chance of showers or showery rain pushing up from the south-west later – bit of an unknown factor that.

Wednesday then sees the next area of low pressure arrive on a fairly strong jetstream. Either a band of rain, or areas of showers, windy too. Around 16’C.

Thursday onwards will be dominated by this area of low pressure – it won’t be able to go anywhere due to the huge block of high pressure over Russia, and will keep being fed energy from the Atlantic.

Most days from Thursday seeing either spells of heavy or very heavy rain, or heavy showers – thunder possible also.

The potential is there for gales, perhaps severe gales – though at this stage it is too far out to pinpoint anything, but the set-up does make a spell or two of damaging winds very possible.

As I mentioned, this low pressure isn’t going anywhere. The week after will again be unsettled, strong winds at times, heavy rain some days, showers other days.

Towards the middle of October there will be more settled days and I’m hopeful for some warmer weather from around mid-month. Though a long time away, and so far my autumn seasonal forecast has been a disaster, so don’t expect too much.

Further away, there are suggestions that if La Niña stays weak or moderate strength at most, then the chance of some colder weather for the first half of winter is very possible (with mild second half). But La Niña could well turn out to be strong, and in that case something similar to last winter looks more likely. Way too early to tell, but just a bit of hope for coldies.…

Monday 21st September 2020

Tomorrow is the last day of the September warmth. Much cooler weather follows, with showers. Though I am still expecting some October warmth.

Thanks to Katharine for the photograph.

Tonight is a clear night, down to around 14’C. Fog possible by dawn.

Any fog patches or low cloud will soon lift on Tuesday to bring long spells of very warm sunshine. A bit of cloud at times, more so late in the day with a small chance of a shower. We should squeeze 25’C. Still a small chance of a shower in the evening, some general showery rain pushing up from the south-west after midnight. A mild night at 15’C.

Wednesday will be rather cloudy with rain at times. Some of the showery rain will be heavy, but there will be dry periods too – and still a bit of sunshine. Around 16’C and breezy at times, feeling cooler by evening as the cold front clears. Chilly overnight with clear spells for a time, down to around 7’C. Further heavy showers arriving before dawn, perhaps a rumble of thunder too.

Thursday sees low pressure well in charge – though with a strong block of high pressure over Russia, the low pressure won’t be moving through quickly.

Thursday starts with those very early heavy showers, then after that it is a case of sunny spells and scattered, blustery showers. Showers could be heavy with a rumble of thunder, but some places may miss them. Windy and cooler, we may squeeze 15’C but it will feel lower than that. Fairly cloudy overnight, quite windy, one or two scattered showers also. Around 8’C.

Friday sees the low pressure creep east allowing a fairly cold northerly flow, for the time of year. Decent sunny spells though, but feeling chilly in the wind – 14’C but feeling much less. A few scattered showers also, most likely light and less than recent days. Clear and chilly overnight, winds lessening somewhat, down to around 5’C.

Saturday again looks on the cool side with this northerly flow, but there will be decent sunny spells also. It should be dry, but I’m not 100% confident yet. Around 14’C.

Sunday isn’t really clear yet, it looks like a weak weather front will bring cloud and a little bit of rain for a portion of the day, with sunny spells either side – but it isn’t certain yet. What is certain is that it remains chilly, 14’C at best.

Next week should see temperatures pick up a bit, but it will be a changeable week with wind and rain at times – roughly 3 unsettled days, 2 settled days kind of pattern.…

Thursday 17th September 2020

More warmth. More sunshine. Big change likely from the middle of next week.

No photograph this week. I guess you are all too used to the sunshine.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, still rather breezy, down to around 11’C.

So we start Friday with high pressure over and to the north of the UK – low pressure to our south over Portugal – meaning we keep the warm flow.

Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of cloud possible and notably breeze. Around 21’C. High cloud overnight from the influence of the low pressure to our south, 13’C.

Saturday sees more sunshine, but it will be hazy at times as the low to our south gradually creeps closer. Around 22’C Breezy – verging on windy. A small chance of a shower in the evening and overnight, around 14’C.

Sunday will see more cloud at times than of late, but again still some good spells of sunshine – and sunshine amounts tending to increase later in the day. A small chance of a heavy shower but mostly likely they stay to our south – still a bit of uncertainty though. Very warm, 23’C, maybe a bit more and still breezy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday again sees long spells of very warm sunshine, around 23’C or a bit more. A small chance of some fog patches early morning also. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 11’C.

Things get slightly more complicated for Tuesday. A band of rain will be spreading down from the north-west – but timing uncertain. If it doesn’t arrive until late afternoon or evening, then another very warm and sunny day will ensue but with a chance of heavy shower.

And then the change to cooler and more unsettled conditions will take place.

Wednesday looks rather cloudy with some showers – there should also be a bit of sunshine too. Not massively high confidence level on details right now. Around 19’C.

Again exactly details not ready for Thursday, but broadly speaking showers, perhaps longer spells of rain – breezy or windy and around 16’C.

Friday and next weekend likely remains unsettled – showers or rain at times.…

Monday 14th September 2020

May 2020 redux. Peak heat on Tuesday though remaining warm or very warm throughout.

Thanks to Paul for another excellent photograph.

Tonight will be a warm night for September, eventually getting down to around 16’C and a little humid also. Clear skies.

For Tuesday we continue the southerly flow, low pressure quite far to our west and heading south, high pressure close to our east.

Tuesday will be another hot and sunny day, with some high cloud making it a little hazy at times. We will reach at least 28’C, 30’C not out of the question. Another warm night under general high cloud, dropping to 17’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure develop further north which switches the flow to an easterly. Still on the hot side, and still lots of sunshine. A bit of cloud and reaching around 26’C. Quite cloudy overnight though tending to thin by dawn, 14’C.

Thursday likely starts cloudy but this should fairly quickly clear to long spells of sunshine in a fresh easterly breeze. Temperatures down on what they were but still warm, 21’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday will see long spells of warm sunshine. Somewhere between 21’C and 25’C depending on the exact source of the roughly easterly breeze. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 12’C.

Very minimal changes for Saturday, high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south meaning an easterly flow. The low to our south just edging a bit further north towards us – the same low pressure that is currently to the west of the UK as I write now, which heads south to Portugal then starts to drift north again by the weekend.

Likely a bit more cloud at times for Saturday but there should be more good spells of sunshine. Probably a tad less warm, between 20’C and 22’C. A fair amount of cloud around overnight, around 13’C.

Sunday is uncertain at this stage. The low pressure to our south should be that bit closer and will bring a risk of thundery showers or rain. Yet this could remain to our south, and we stay sunny. Warm either outcome.

Next week probably starts warm – the chance of showers unknown at this stage, but possible.

Not keen on forecasting any further into the future at the moment due to the amount of tropical storm/hurricane systems towards America and the uncertainty they add to the general atmosphere.…

Thursday 10th September 2020

Mostly dry, sometimes sunny and becoming hot by Monday.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at times, down to around 8’C so a little chilly.

Friday sees high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north.

Generally sunny spells and cloudy spells, sunshine slightly more likely during morning and late afternoon, though no real set pattern expected. Feeling warm, around 21’C. Clear spells overnight though more in the way of cloud by dawn, around 12’C.

For Saturday we have a very weak weather front over us, mostly bringing cloud but there might be the odd spot of light rain. The sun will also break through the cloud at times, more likely morning and especially late afternoon onwards. Still reasonably warm, around 21’C. Cloud continuing to thin overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees a major change as the jetstream buckles and allow hot air to start spreading north.

I do bang on about hurricane season often causing unexpected changes in the weather patterns – a week ago I was expecting the coming weekend to become cooler and unsettled, yet the opposite is happening. I believe this change in forecast being because of the strong typhoon that hit Japan/Korea and the ripple effect of that interacting with the jetstream has caused the jetstream to buckle affecting us downstream in the UK. I think this is what has happened but I haven’t had the time to look into it properly.

Sunday will therefore see good sunny spells. There will be a bit of cloud around, but generally a very nice, very warm day. Around 24’C. Around 12’C overnight in clear skies.

Monday looks gloriously sunny. It will be hot, 28’C will be reached, but 30’C is possible. A warmer night than of late, minimum of 16’C.

Tuesday should remain hot and sunny, but fresher air will likely be starting to push in from the west by the end of the day. A bit of afternoon cloud and a small chance of a shower later. Around 28’C. Small chance of a shower or even a thunderstorm overnight, around 15’C. Fog possible by dawn.

Things quickly become very uncertain from here. We’ll have low pressure close to our west – some model output moves it south towards Portugal which would keep the warmth, but also give us a chance of showers.

Other model output takes the low pressure across the UK, bringing wind and rain – once it interacts with the jetstream.

Said jetstream pattern will be key (and normally is) to our weather for the end of next week – and the pattern is very uncertain, mostly due to the amount of potential tropical storms and hurricanes over the Atlantic towards America.

I think the most likely outcome for Wednesday is that it remains warm or very warm, but a chance of heavy showers, possibly thundery.

After that, well uncertainty is very kind. Perhaps the slightly more likely outcome for Thursday onwards is that it remains warm or very warm, with heavy showers or heavy rain at some point between Thursday and Sunday.

That’s about the best I can do at the moment. I like to be able to forecast 7-10 days, but 5 days is really the limit at the moment.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the sunshine!…

Monday 7th September 2020

Bonus September warmth ahead.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy and mild, a spot of drizzle possible, 15’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy. There should be some bright or sunny spells later in the afternoon and it will be warm, 22’C – though a bit more sunshine and we could make it to 24’C. Mild with variable cloud overnight, 16’C.

Wednesday will again be mostly cloudy. There will be a bit of brightness in the morning, during early afternoon there will be a bit of patchy rain too, and then something sunny to end the day. Warm, around 22’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Thursday will see more in the way of sunshine, but fresher air around following Wednesday’s weak weather front having cleared south. Some fair weather cloud, otherwise fine, 18’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Friday will be similar, some decent sunny spells but also some fair weather cloud, especially in the afternoon. Around 19’C, maybe 20’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, 20’C.

The forecast for the weekend is rather different from what I was expecting a few days ago.

Saturday looks fair with sunny spells, a bit breezy but otherwise pleasant. Around 19’C, though a small chance of something warmer.

Sunday sees high pressure building over us, allowing a warmer flow. Sunny spells and very warm – perhaps quite hot, around 24’C – 26’C.

Next week likely starts quite hot. 30’C would not be impossible for Monday/Tuesday, though something closer to 26’C to 28’C more likely.

Likely to see more in the way of showers and more normal temperatures for the latter part of next week, but uncertain at this stage.

September is always tricky to forecast more than 5 days away due to it being hurricane season, and the added complexity they bring into the mix – and it really is the peak of a very busy hurricane season in the Atlantic, so do take anything after about 5 days away with a larger pinch of sea salt than normal.…

Thursday 3rd September 2020

A bit of cloud. A bit of sun. A bit of rain. Not a very interesting few days – but warmer next week.

Thanks to Tony for the photograph.

This evening sees the last dribs of rain sink south, it will be quite cloudy overnight but some clear spells at times. Down to around 13’C and feeling a bit fresher than today.

Friday starts bright – quite cloudy but some sunny spells. Some rain will develop late afternoon and more so in the evening. 19’C. Mostly clear and dry overnight, once evening rain clears, down to around 11’C.

Saturday morning sees sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up and there will be more cloud than sunshine in the afternoon, but remaining bright. One or two scattered showers, shouldn’t be too heavy if you catch one. A north-westerly breeze so not especially warm, 18’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday will see sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up with a risk of heavy showers – not everywhere seeing one, but a greater chance than on Saturday, and likely heavy too. A touch warmer, 19’C in light winds. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C, a small chance of fog patches by dawn.

Monday sees high pressure building more extensively from the south-west and introducing warmer air too.

Any early fog patches will quickly clear to leave a sunny Monday morning. Quite a lot of cloud bubbling up during the afternoon but remaining pleasant enough. 20’C. Clear for a time overnight but cloud thickening later, 13’C.

Tuesday is uncertain at this stage in terms of cloud amounts – certainly a risk of a rather dull and cloudy day, but at worst there should be some sunshine. A much sunnier day is possible, just too close to call at the moment. Either 18’C or 22’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Wednesday probably has some low cloud again at some point, but overall looks most likely to see some good sunny spells. Again, just uncertain on cloud amounts right now. Around 23’C, assuming good sunny spells.

Thursday should be another reasonably sunny day – some cloud around again, but more in the way of sunshine. Temperatures dropping a bit to around 20’C, perhaps a shade under.

By Friday it looks like cooler and more unsettled conditions will start to spread down from the north-west. We might squeeze another fine day in – the timing of the unsettled conditions arriving isn’t certain at this stage.

Next weekend therefore looks like it will be cooler, with at least some showers and strong winds. Not 100% in stone, but likely.…

Autumn Weather Forecast 2020

Welcome to my Autumn Weather Forecast 2020.

I always have mixed feelings about autumn. A relief that heatwaves are unlikely. An excitement about the potential for proper rain and wind! Sadness for the diminishing amount of daylight. And I enjoy the colour of the changing leaves – it can be such a photographic season.

First the admin. If you appreciate my forecasts, I ask you to share occasionally, use the “invite friends” button on Facebook, post on social media, send to your family/friends. It is all I ask.

Next, thank you to Ros for the photograph. There were 3 or 4 really strong contenders, but I was really keen on the fact that it offers both sunshine, and threat of rain – at least clouds, a bit like the autumn I’m expecting. A £10 donation to The British Heart Foundation has been made as a thank you.

Finally a reminder that seasonal forecasting is really rather difficult. There are some background signals to assist but it is quite speculative. Some of what I forecast will be incorrect, do not take it as gospel. The hope is to get more right than wrong, and the general picture.

Feel free to check my summer forecast – I thought that it went really well and am happier with it than most seasonal forecasts in the last couple of years.

Background Signals

So the main background signal that informs my forecast is that of La Niña, which is developing in the Pacific Ocean. Likely to be a fairly weak affair, I still expect this to increase the general westerly flow over the UK, increasing the chance of strong winds and rain overall.

However I expect the mean jetstream flow to be a little north of Scotland, on average through autumn, so for those of us in the south of the UK, this will mean high pressure loosely in control – often a similar pattern to July, where we swapped short spells of high pressure though often cloudy, for short unsettled spells – the westerly flow in July meant that temperatures were not hot, bar the last day of July.

September

September is always a tricky month to forecast as Atlantic hurricanes can change previously expected weather patterns, or sometimes exaggerate current patterns. It has been a busy hurricane season so far, though we’ve only had the remnants of one ex-tropical storm and that had no effect on our weather patterns, at least that I could ascertain.

So there is always that bit more uncertainty for September.

The first two weeks of September I expect to be broadly fair. Some sunny days, some occasional showers or fairly weak bands of rain. Some warm days, some with more average temperatures.

Around the middle of September, it looks like cooler air with spread down from the north-west, with rain, showers and strong winds.

Then the last week, maybe 10 days, seeing something more settled, though still fairly mixed with the odd weather front – but more dry days than not, some decent sunshine and some warm, perhaps very warm days.

Overall I expect around average sunshine amounts, below average rainfall and somewhat above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 65%.

October

At the moment I expect October to start with some decent spells of settled weather, likely rather warm with high pressure close to our east allowing for a more southerly or south-westerly flow – though chance of fog overnight.

During the middle portion of the month, we should see more in the way of weather fronts bringing wind and rain at times, but still some fine and dry weather mixed in. Temperatures around normal.

Suggestions that the month may end more deeply unsettled, but this is probably the most uncertain part of the forecast.

Overall I expect slightly above average sunshine, slightly below average rainfall and somewhat above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 60%.

November

No particular weather type expected to dominate in early November. I do expect the jetstream to be bringing wet and windy weather to Scotland – and some of this will drip down our way with some weather fronts, some windy days, mixed in with fine days and temperatures generally around average, though perhaps a tad chilly in any lengthy settled spells where frost and fog will be possible.

For the latter part of November, the general mixed theme remains though with more of a south-westerly flow, and something milder – though rain and wind that bit more often than early November.

Overall I expect slightly below average sunshine, around average rainfall and slightly above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 65%.

Winter?

Well, December is a long way ahead. With La Niña I’d expect a wetter winter than normal and with the jetstream further south, so we’ll get more of the brunt of weather systems than during autumn, where Scotland should get the brunt.

That said there are plenty of background signals that suggest a good chance of cold spells. Then again, there were a few last season and look what happened!

So I’m fairly confident of a wetter winter than normal. For chances of cold spells and snow you’ll have to wait until nearer the time.…