Friday 14th March 2025

Posted on by james

A few more fairly cold days, but becoming much milder again next week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure to our west, and a cold north-easterly flow.

A bright start to Friday, quite a bit of cloud around. Cloud amounts tending to increase, still some sunny spells but more cloud overall, and a few showers popping up from mid-morning onwards, say a 70% chance of catching a couple – perhaps heavy. Fairly cold, 7’C at best in a north-easterly breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

Saturday morning will see a fair amount of cloud, though some sunny spells. A small chance of a shower. Sunshine amounts tending to increase in the afternoon. Still pretty chilly but getting to around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny but cloud amounts will increase for a mostly cloudy day from around mid-morning. A small chance of a shower, maybe a little more sunshine by the end of the day. Still on the chilly side, 8’C or so. Quite cloudy overnight, some clear spells, the odd shower possible too. Down to around 4’C.

Monday starts on the cloudy side of thing, some brightness at times though. Probably it will become sunnier as the day goes on. Around 8’C or so, the breeze more notable than it has been. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable – down to around 0’C, give or take.

By Tuesday the breeze turns more south-easterly and we pick up a milder flow.

Long spells of sunshine most likely, and reaching around 10’C. A frost probable overnight, down to around 0’C – give or take.

By Wednesday we’ll be in a southerly flow, with air from North Africa. Generally sunny, a bit of cloud around and much milder at around 15’C. Ahhh spring again. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Thursday looks very pleasant, potentially some more high/mid-level cloud, but we should reach a reasonable 18’C, or close to.

More uncertainty by Friday, probably we see weather fronts start to push in, so more cloud (hazy sunshine?) and an increased chance of showers, though the showers may well hold off until overnight or even the next day. Around 16’C.

More likely next weekend is fairly unsettled, with showers or rain at times, and temperatures tracking back down to normal, say 12’C by Sunday.

There is a small chance that we hang onto something more pleasant though, and low pressure stays to our south-west.

Current expectations are for a more unsettled or at least changeable end to March and beginning of April. Still waiting to see how the sudden stratospheric warming event plays out – my best guess remains colder then normal at times to start April, warmer than normal later in April.

Have a good weekend!…

Monday 10th March 2025

Posted on by james

Well we deserved 10 days of sunshine and 5 days of semi-warmth. Back to winter for now, but not much in the way of rain – and some sunshine, if much colder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general set-up to start the week sees high pressure to our north-west, which allows a colder north-easterly flow to set up. The jetstream is much further south across the Mediterranean – it’s going to be notably wet in Portugal and Spain this week.

Today will be mostly cloudy with some occasional bits of rain – not amounting to much at all. A little brightness possible at times too. Still fairly mild at around 11’C in an easterly breeze. Again mostly cloudy overnight with occasional light rain, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy. It will brighten up somewhat, always a lot of cloud but there will be some bright/sunny spells. The odd light shower around too. Colder, 8’C or so in the north-easterly breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a wintry shower and down to roughly 1’C – a frost possible, but perhaps too much cloud and breeze.

By Wednesday the colder air will be much more entrenched. A day of sunny spells and showers, any showers early in the morning could potentially see some sleet/snow mixed in, afterwards more likely rain but still plausible that there could be a wintry mix, especially in any heavy showers. Around 6’C in the cold north-easterly breeze. Clear spells at first though an area of cloud and showers looks probable to spread south in the second half of the night – potentially a wintry mix. Down to around 1’C – a frost plausible if the showers miss us.

Thursday looks a cloudier day. Still some bright/sunny spells at times and a few showers around, though less likely than on Wednesday, and probably of rain should you catch one. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around -1’C or so.

Friday should be somewhat sunnier again, though plenty of cloud bubbling up and a few showers too, perhaps a wintry mix if you catch a heavy one, though more likely any showers are rain. Around 7’C in an easterly breeze. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible, but only if cloud stays away.

Synoptically not much change for the weekend – high pressure still to our north-west, low pressure still to our south.

It should be dry this weekend, some uncertainty on cloud amounts, depending on how close the low pressure to our south is, though I’d be hopeful of at least some sunshine each day – Sunday more so than Saturday on current expectations.

Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 7’C to 9’C, potentially feeling chillier in the breeze/wind, again depending on how close low pressure is to our south.

Low confidence for next week, but more likely than not temperatures increase – perhaps becoming quite warm once more. It’s roughly a 50/30/20 split in my head as to whether it becomes quite warm and pleasant, mild and somewhat unsettled, or some mixture of the two.

The sudden stratospheric warming event happened yesterday, so now we await to see the impacts – which tend to be 2-6 weeks from the event, and more often than not mean blocking highs in positions that bring northerly or easterly flows – similar positioning to this week, in fact. I doubt we’ll see any reaction in the models for a few days, at least.

Have a good week, I should be back on Friday morning most likely.…

Friday 7th March 2025

Posted on by james

A few more days of early spring warmth – winter is back next week.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure centred over south-eastern Europe, but stretching all the way back to the UK, where we are in a warmer south-westerly flow. Low pressure is approaching, but will sink south towards Spain/France, rather than cross us directly.

Today sees more cloud than of late but it will generally be bright with hazy sunshine at times, tending to be more sunshine later this afternoon. Reaching 15’C, maybe 16’C – a small chance of the odd spot of rain but it should remain mostly dry. Skies clearing further overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday is another pleasant day – sunny to start though with some high cloud which will make it hazy at times, the high cloud tending to increase during the day, but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees good spells of sunshine, with some high cloud at times – more so in the afternoon. Again quite warm, 16’C to 17’C more likely but I wouldn’t rule out an 18’C or even a tad more. Some cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower later – roughly around 7’C.

Details a bit more uncertain for Monday – the flow turns more easterly though likely we stay in the mild conditions for another day, say 12’C to 14’C. More likely bright in the morning, more likely cloudier later with some showery rain – but developments currently uncertain. Overnight could be dry, could be wet – no idea yet. Though almost certainly becoming colder.

By Tuesday we are back in a cold north-easterly flow. I hope you didn’t put your winter clothes away.

Again details a bit uncertain but more likely on the cloudy side, especially in the morning – a chance of a shower or two, which should be of rain but I cannot rule out something wintry. Around 6’C but feeling colder in the wind. Frost possible overnight depending on cloud amounts.

I cannot really do detail any further into the future than this. We’ll certainly stay in the easterly flow and temperatures will be on the cold side for mid-March, say 5’C to 7’C more likely, perhaps a little more.

High uncertainty on cloud amounts, rain amounts and whether there will be any frost – if the skies clear overnight then frosts will happen. I cannot rule out sleet/snow falling either.

Next weekend is anyone’s guess right now.

Have a fun weekend, I should be back on Monday morning.…

Monday 3rd March 2025

Posted on by james

Frosty and/or foggy starts but more sunshine to come, and temperatures ticking up. A few days of spring…though don’t expect it to last.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees high pressure in control – the jetstream is to the north taking low pressure systems far away from us, and also a low pressure over Portugal/Spain.

Early mist/fog patches will clear quite swiftly on Monday to leave long spells of sunshine. Maybe a bit of high cloud at times but pretty glorious otherwise. Reaching 10’C, maybe 11’C. Clear skies for much of the night, down to around -2’C and it will be frosty. Mist/fog patches forming by dawn – not everywhere.

Tuesday again starts with mist/fog patches in places – sunny from the off in others. Mist/fog will lift to leave long spells of sunshine and very little, if any cloud. Reaching around 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud. A frost likely, down to around -1’C, mist/fog patches again possible towards dawn.

By Wednesday we’ll be picking up more of a south-westerly flow, so it will be milder. Again there will be early mist/fog in some places to clear, but otherwise we’ll see long spells of sunshine with little cloud, if any. Reaching 14’C, with a bit of a breeze. Clear skies overnight though probably no frost, down to around 2’C. Mist/fog patches less likely too, though still a small chance in a few spots by dawn.

For Thursday, our high pressure is more centred over the south-east of Europe, and we’ll have a southerly flow.

Again long spells of sunshine, though a little bit of cloud around – more so later in the afternoon. We should get to 15’C so feeling pretty spring-like. Cloud will thicken overnight, perhaps a splash of rain in the latter part, around 7’C.

Friday looks much cloudier, with a bit of showery rain, mostly in the morning. Perhaps some brightness/sunshine in the afternoon, but uncertain. Around 12’C. Further bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though rainfall totals pretty low, around 7’C.

The weekend is quite uncertain at this stage. It looks like low pressure over Spain/Portugal/western France will be driving somewhat warmer air through central Europe, which probably reaches us – so temperatures could easily be between 15’C and 17’C, though this is moderate confidence at best.

And the position of low pressure is uncertain, slightly more likely it is far enough away and we’ll see something fairly sunny though with some cloud at times, the slightly less likely outcome sees it a bit closer to the UK, and we’ll have something cloudier with some showers (not a washout by any means) and still some sunny spells possible.

Fairly high uncertainty for the week after, but high pressure close to our north seems a more likely outcome, temperatures back to average at best, but perhaps notably cold instead. Overnight frosts would be likely once more, and maybe mist/fog.

With regards to the sudden stratospheric warming event I mentioned in the seasonal forecast, it still looks likely to happen circa 10th March. So any time two weeks from there onwards we’d probably see the effects…cannot say I’m excited about the possible return to winter for late March or April, but hey ho…let’s see what happens. SSW events don’t always lead to colder weather in north-western Europe, just around 65% of the time.…

Spring Weather Forecast 2025

Posted on by james

Welcome to the Spring weather forecast 2025, aimed at Reading & Berkshire though probably applicable to most of the south of England, as I talk quite broad brush.

I shall start with the usual caveat – seasonal forecasting can only be experimental, background signals can give an idea of what to expect, but notable events can override such signals.

It looks like we are about to have a sudden stratospheric warming event, which is annoying timing, both for the accuracy of this forecast and for the prospects of good spring weather.

This does mean that I’m less confident than normal – I’d rather be doing this forecast in two weeks time, and I may well do an updated version if the sudden stratospheric warming event happens (likely) and it upturns current expectations.

In any case, no seasonal forecast from any forecaster will be completely accurate, except if they get exceptionally lucky. My winter forecast was alright – both January and February were wetter than I expected, but high pressure was in control for much of February as I expected, just in a slightly different place. December’s forecast was pretty good. I wouldn’t give myself especially high marks.

Also I’d like to thank everyone that contributes, both in terms of comments on the Facebook posts and especially the photographs that are sent to me to use…the forecasts look much more boring without them.

And for this forecast, thanks to Donna for the cover photograph – a small donation to the charity of your choice will be made shortly.

Background Signals

Background signals tend to mean less in spring/summer, though the one overriding factor is the likely sudden stratospheric warming event.

Such events often (but not always) lead to high pressure blocks in positions that favour cold weather spreading down from the Arctic, or from Russia – so northerly or easterly winds.

Whilst a northerly flow will always be cooler/colder than normal at any time of year, easterly winds from around mid-April onwards can be warmer than normal, depending on the exact air source, and how much North Sea cloud is involved.

Effects from a sudden stratospheric warming (SWW) event tend to take 2-6 weeks to filter down into the troposphere (our level of the atmosphere).

Until the event has happened, and still it is possible that it is just a notable warming of the stratosphere and not an SSW, we can only talk in chances of something happening.

The other background signals include a weak La Niña and the QBO being in westerly phase, which should increase the chances of westerly flows. That said, these were also in affect during the winter, and we had reduced westerly flows compared to normal.

Conclusion? No idea.

March

Well let’s start with the bit I know – March will start sunny with overnight frost and/or fog, and temperatures will recover to a little above average. Something more showery likely for a time for the second week – mild or quite warm at first, possibly colder later.

Uncertainty increases notably for the second half. Something changeable broadly looks the theme, though with high pressure close by more often than not. Said high pressure more likely in milder positions, though brief cold snaps will remain possible, in the mix. Overnight frosts still possible. Some showers and occasional rain but overall probably more dry and sunny days, than showery days.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, somewhat above-average sunshine and somewhat below-average rainfall.

Confidence level around 50% – pretty low compared to what I can normally feel.

April

Confidence really drops off a cliff now, due to the probable sudden stratospheric warming event, and the unknown outcomes – though outcomes more likely to favour cold flows than normal.

I was very confident of high pressure being in control for April until recently, but one effect of an SSW event can be for the Arctic air to go flooding south to our west, over the Atlantic, which then blows up large areas of low pressure – we saw this last winter where SSW events led to something milder and wetter.

But I’m going to stick to the more likely outcome, which is colder and drier weather with high pressure either to our north/north-west or west – allowing colder flows from the north or east for the first half of April.

Variable amounts of sunshine and cloud from day to day, some showers likely – some sleet/snow would be possible. Colder than normal conditions more likely, but brief quite warm spells could be mixed in too. Overnight frosts still possible.

I’d assume high pressure to continue to be fairly close by for the latter half of April, again some changeable conditions, some showers possible some days, though temperatures more likely to be average or above-average.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine and slightly below-average rainfall.

Confidence level just 20%. Damn that sudden stratospheric warming event.

May

By this point the effects of the SSW event (assuming it happened and assuming it was impactful) lessen. Should high pressure be to our north, the resulting easterly winds would be warm by this point – though should it be to our west, northerly flows still chilly.

My best guess is that high pressure will be to our north to allow easterly flows, so often warm and sunny, though not always, for the start of May. Cloud spilling in from the North Sea overnight and leading to cloudy mornings – or possibly cool and cloudy days, is possible, in such a set-up.

As the month goes on, heavy showers will tend to increase in prominence across the south of England, with low pressure tending to be close by to our south, over France. Potential for some decent thunderstorms (or indecent if you don’t care for them). Likely still warm/very warm with sunny spells.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine amounts and an average number of days of rain – rainfall totals could be anything, depending on how heavy any downpours are.

Confidence level of 40%.

Summary And Early Summer Thoughts

Yikes…lots of uncertainty. May holds the most promise for those looking out for sunshine and warmth, though I do expect all 3 months to be sunnier than normal. Anything outstanding wet looks unlikely, though who knows what the effect of the SSW will be – all I can talk about is more likely outcomes for now.

I wish the SSW event happened two weeks earlier, or I did my forecast two weeks later. Alas. Maybe I’ll do an updated version in two weeks but I doubt I’ll have time.

Early summer thoughts are for a fairly hot first half/two-thirds of summer, though I’d still expect some heavy showers at times – early signals for August are looking notably wet. But that is a very, very, very long way away.

And that is your Spring Weather Forecast 2025. Thoughts?!…

Spring Forecast Photograph Request

Posted on by james

Woohoo it’s nearly spring! My favourite time of the year, or at least late spring/early summer is.

Hopefully I will be doing the spring forecast this weekend, if not then early next week, and I need a photograph please.

Usual rules:

  1. Must feature weather. Must have spring weather of some description – there is more than one type of spring weather and I choose to fit the forecast, as best as possible (though I’ve given you enough hints in recent weeks).
  2. Must be the local area.
  3. Can be from any year…as long as it is spring weather.
  4. Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on. But I only use landscape-orientated images.

I will donate £10 (or so) to the charity of the winner’s choice…I will be in touch with whoever I choose.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

My life is easier if you add them to the Facebook post but you can also e-mail them, or send by Facebook message too.

Thanks!…

Friday 28th February 2025

Posted on by james

It’s the forecast that you’ve all been waiting for (well, most of you) – plenty of sunshine if still on the chilly side, at least for the first few days, and especially overnight. Spring starts tomorrow and I’ve got a reasonably spring-like forecast for you.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure building from the south-west – low pressure towards Spain/Portugal and the jetstream going over the top of the UK, though still quite strong.

Any early mist/fog/low cloud will quickly lift to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up. Still pretty chilly though, 9’C at best. Clear spells for much of the night but mist/fog will tend to form towards dawn, though not necessarily everywhere. Frosty, down to around -2’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog/low cloud for most, though there is a chance of being sunny from the off. It will gradually break up, with good spells of sunshine for all, and some fair-weather cloud bubbling up. The sun a bit hazier later in the day. 9’C, maybe 10’C, so still on the chilly side. A lot of high cloud for the first half of the night though this will sink south to leave clear skies later, frosty and down to around -1’C or so. A chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn.

Sunday may start with some mist/fog patches (less likely than previous two mornings) but they will lift to leave long spells of sunshine, with a bit of fair-weather cloud possible. Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C. Mist/fog again possible by dawn.

Monday sees early mist/fog/low cloud but again this lifts to good spells of sunshine, though likely with more high cloud than of late, as a very weak weather front moves down from the north-west. Around 9’C, maybe 10’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud at times, and again some mist/fog patches forming by dawn. Down to around -2’C and frosty.

By Tuesday we start to pull in a more south-westerly flow, which means milder.

Again some early mist/fog/low cloud patches in places to clear, then good sunny spells, though probably a bit hazier especially in the afternoon. Around 12’C. A frost less likely overnight, still a chance of some mist/fog patches forming, and down to around 1’C.

Wednesday again may have some mist/fog patches to clear but they will lift into long spells of sunshine. Around 13’C, maybe 14’C at a push so definitely feeling quite spring-like. Another fairly cold night, down to around 0’C – frost possible, as will be mist/fog patches by dawn.

Thursday again may see mist/fog/low cloud at first (not everywhere, as per every morning in this forecast), which should be followed by long spells of sunshine. The breeze more southerly and temperatures ticking up further – heck it could be the first “quite warm” day, 15’C, maybe 16’C. 16’C counts as “quite warm” in my book in March…not so come May.

There is a small chance that we cannot quite squeeze out that last pleasant day on Thursday, and low pressure arrives – but 90% likely we will.

This does mean that Friday and into next weekend probably sees low pressure arriving, with rain/showers at times, and temperatures back down a bit – towards 10’C, or so.

I shall try to do the spring forecast this weekend, depending on what time I can find. Have a pleasant weekend and enjoy the sunshine!…

Monday 24th February 2025

Posted on by james

An unsettled but mild start of the week – though tending to become drier later in the week.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

We start the week very much in westerly mode, with low pressure towards Iceland.

Outbreaks of rain to start on Monday, this will clear east by around late morning/lunchtime. This will be followed by sunny spells and scattered showers, perhaps heavy – say a 70% chance of catching one or two. Mild and breezy, 13’C. Clear spells at first overnight but cloud will build – perhaps some rain towards dawn, though will mostly be further south than here. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts fairly cloudy, perhaps a splash of rain. This will clear to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, quite a bit of cloud, and around a 30% chance of a shower. Cooler air around so reaching 9’C, maybe 10’C, and generally quite breezy. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud building later – down to around 2’C.

Wednesday sees a band of showery rain crossing, right from the start – perhaps arriving just before dawn. Cloudy with occasional showery rain is the theme, some heavy bursts possibly mixed in – a bit more in the way of sunshine from mid-afternoon onwards though showers will remain possible. Breezy and cool, around 9’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around, down to around 2’C, give or take.

By Thursday, high pressure makes an attempt to build from the south-west (not something I was especially expecting previously).

Some sunny spells but likely more cloud overall. Temperatures still fairly low, 8’C, maybe 9’C – it is still winter, of course. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Friday starts sunny in places, foggy in others. The fog will lift to bring sunny spells, though quite a lot of fair-weather cloud bubbling up, especially for mid-afternoon. Around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Saturday and the first day of meteorological spring looks pleasantly sunny. The odd fog patch first thing will clear if you have one, then sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud in the afternoon, and a bit of high cloud floating around at times. 9’C, maybe squeezing a 10’C. Some cloud around overnight but more likely sufficient clear spells for a frost, down to roughly 0’C.

Sunday probably has more cloud around, some uncertainty this far away but I’d guess more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C.

High pressure should hang on into next week, and temperatures should tick up a little bit more, perhaps almost feeling like spring. Oooh! More confidence on the high pressure than the temperatures though, that will depend on favourable positioning of the high.

Probably this followed by a more unsettled spell, say later next week – but that’s 10 days away which is a very long time.…

Friday 21st February 2025

Posted on by james

Well it’s definitely milder – but unsettled too. Plenty of cloud and rain in the forecast, but also some sunshine.

No photograph this week as all the only unused ones are sunny, I have nothing suitable/interesting from my London life and I still haven’t been on holiday. Though the cloudiness of this winter has persuaded me to budget for a winter holiday next year!

So the general picture sees the jetstream fired up once more, fuelled again by another cold plunge in the US.

Today starts cloudy with a bit of patchy rain. It will brighten up for a couple of hours, say late morning roughly, then thicker cloud will spread from the west from around lunchtime, with outbreaks of rain arriving not long after – continuing until the evening, on and off. Quite windy in the morning but we should reach 14’C. The rain slowly clearing overnight, though staying cloudy. Down to around 10’C.

Saturday starts cloudy. It will slowly break up by around late morning, to leave increasing amounts of sunshine – especially for mid/late afternoon. A stray shower possible, but not many around. 12’C and breezy. Clear skies at first overnight, though mist/fog patches likely forming in places overnight. Down to around 5’C.

A bit of a mixture to start Sunday, some places starting with some mist/fog/low cloud, others brighter with hazy sunshine. The mist/fog will lift but also the cloud will thicken from the west so any hazy sunshine disappears. Outbreaks of rain arriving in the afternoon, quite patchy and light/moderate in intensity. Reaching around 10’C, the wind picking up to be strong during the afternoon. The strong winds continue in the evening and the rain will become more persistent and somewhat heavy, continuing for much of the night. Around 9’C.

Monday likely starts cloudy, perhaps still some rain to clear. This should move away fairly swiftly to leave sunny spells and scattered showers – most places getting a couple of showers, a small chance of them being heavy, a very small chance of thunder. Reaching around 12’C and generally pretty breezy. Clear skies at first overnight but it looks like a spell of rain, or showers will cross in the second half of the night. Down to around 5’C.

For Tuesday we remain very much in the westerly flow.

A bit more uncertainty on details but broadly mixed, some sunshine, some cloud and some showers. Around 10’C. Clear skies overnight and a colder feel, down to around 2’C.

Wednesday tentatively looks quite decent, sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. Around 10’C. Another chilly night likely, down to around 3’C – a chance of some showers later.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence on details, though the pattern will remain broadly the same for late next week and into the weekend, some sunshine at times, some cloud and some showers – perhaps a spell of rain. Temperatures a bit colder say 8’C to 10’C.

Probably rather unsettled again next week for the first full week of March, with temperatures pretty supressed.

More hope for some spring sunshine later in March.

Have a pleasant weekend.…

Monday 17th February 2025

Posted on by james

Bring on the mild…with some rain and wind too. But first, there are still more cold days to get through.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees the rather large high pressure block to our east slowly being eroded by the rather large low pressure in the Atlantic.

We won’t go full tonto into unsettled weather – the low pressure will slowly head towards Iceland, but it will push weather fronts our way – with much milder air.

Today starts sunny for most, though there is a bit of low cloud floating around on places. Generally it will stay bright with hazy sunshine for much of the day – and sometimes we won’t have the high cloud around either. Still fairly cold and a breeze picking up too, 5’C, maybe getting to 6’C. A lot of high cloud overnight, but a frost still likely – down to around -1’C.

Tuesday will be a day of hazy sunshine, with a covering of high/mid-level cloud all day. Breezy, reaching around 7’C. Generally keeping the high/mid-level cloud and the breeze overnight, a close call on a frost, down to around 1’C – so a frost probable in more sheltered spots.

Wednesday starts cloudy but bright, perhaps some hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud will push east from the first of the weather fronts – perhaps a bit of afternoon rain, but it may well have run out of energy by time it arrives. Still breezy and temperatures creeping up a tad more, 8’C, maybe 9’C. Cloudy overnight, becoming windy, a bit of showery rain possible at times – and around 8’C.

By Thursday the much milder Atlantic air will very much be in control.

A bit of uncertainty over how the weather front progresses, but a broadly cloudy day with occasional rain – perhaps a heavy burst or two, though quite a lot of the day it won’t be raining. Perhaps some brightness later in the afternoon – uncertain though. Around 12’C, give or take and windy. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of light rain possible at times and mild – 10’C. I cannot remember our last proper mild night.

Friday will be a windy but mild day. A weather front will be trying to push in from the west, but probably it stays to our west during the day. Some hazy sunshine but plenty of cloud too, and around 13’C. The weather front crossing in the evening and overnight, bringing a spell of rain – potentially some heavy rain involved but uncertain at this stage. Around 10’C.

The weekend continues in the mild flow. Saturday likely starts cloudy, perhaps some rain to clear first thing, but more likely it has already cleared. The cloud should shift, sunny spells replace it – perhaps a shower and around 13’C. It should be semi-pleasant. Cloud will thicken overnight and it will become quite windy, as the next low pressure system approaches. Perhaps rain arriving before dawn, but most likely not until Sunday.

Sunday then sees rain spreading across – timing uncertain, and broadly cloudy and windy otherwise. Around 11’C.

Next week probably will be changeable, some wind/rain, some sunnier days with showers possible. Probably mild to start the week but likely turning somewhat colder again, though not as cold as of late.

Definitely feels a bit better to me – some sunshine whilst it remains cold, then getting milder (but rain at times too). Next full forecast will be Thursday or Friday morning.…