Something much cooler is on the way.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Yep, I still haven’t done my autumn seasonal forecast – it’ll be October by time I get around to it! Guess I’ll look to do it Thursday/Friday now.

We start the week with high pressure out to our west, and our low pressure that has dominated the weather for the last few days now weakening and moving east.

Today starts cloudy, perhaps the odd spot of drizzle/light rain. During the afternoon, brighter skies with some sunshine will spread east, though it may well be mid/late afternoon before it arrives. Reaching around 17’C. Breezy at first, less so later. Fairly clear skies overnight, cloud tending to thicken somewhat as the night goes on, around 12’C.

Tuesday is a fairly cloudy day as a weak weather front spreads down from the north-west, still some sunshine at times, and the odd shower. By late afternoon, perhaps early evening, a band of heavy showers will cross, bringing most places a heavy shower or two through this time. Reaching around 18’C and breezy. Clear skies will follow, but also the cooler air – down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up and showers will break out by mid/late morning, most places catching a few which could be heavy with a rumble of thunder. Possible you’ll miss them all and stay dry, but unlikely. Just 14’C in a northerly breeze…I’m really not psychologically ready for this. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we are very much in this northerly, veering NNW flow.

Sunny spells to start the day but cloud bubbling up. One or two scattered showers, but only around a 30% chance of catching one, and they will be on the light/moderate side if you do. 14’C at best in the breeze. Notably chilly overnight, down to around 3’C – which can be sufficient for a ground frost.

For Friday we lose the northerly, and have a pleasant, sunny day. Some cloud but mostly sunshine, and temperatures up a bit to 16’C. Another fairly chilly night at around 5’C.

Saturday looks a pleasant and sunny day, though the sunshine will become increasingly hazy as the day goes on, as weather fronts edge closer. Reaching around 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday sees the weather front push through, bringing a cloudier day with some rain at some point. Though not especially high confidence right now – plausible that high pressure hangs on and the weather front cannot quite make it here.

Uncertain for next week – suggestions of high pressure developing to our north, and low to our south – which could give us more warm but showery conditions.