Monday 9th May 2022

So, as expected, we have high pressure trying to move up from the south, but the Atlantic gearing up and pushing low pressure systems across. High pressure will win by the weekend, but mixed until then. And maybe next week could be on the hot side.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy, breezy and mild – no lower than 13’C, as a weak weather front approaches. Some patchy light rain arriving around dawn.

Tuesday sees low pressure in control to the north of Scotland.

Not much impact down here, but a breezy day with some patchy light rain in the morning. Sunny spells from late morning onwards with variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Warm, around 20’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees a small low pressure system cut off from the main system to the north, running over the southern third of the UK. Some uncertainty as to where and when the heaviest rain will be – more likely during the day we’ll see patchy light or moderate rain, but often be dry – with the heavy rain further west and north of us. That heavy and by then rather showery rain spreading across our region during the evening and the first part of the night – potentially very heavy for short periods, but also showery so some places may see only small amounts of rain. Temperatures around 16’C by day and 8’C by night – breezy too, particularly in the afternoon.

Thursday starts sunny. Likely rather a lot of cloud from late morning onwards, but some sunny spells. Reaching around 18’C and still breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday starts to see the build of high-pressure from the south. Decent sunny spells though there will be some cloud around at times, both high cloud and fair weather cloud. Warm, 20’C, perhaps 22’C at a push. Clear skies overnight down to around 7’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the UK, with growing heat over Spain and the potential for us to tap into it.

There will be good spells of sunshine all day – likely some fair weather cloud bubbling up but mostly it will be sunny. Warm, 22’C – perhaps more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday remains mostly sunny though some uncertainty on temperatures due to uncertainty on high pressure positioning and any breeze – so reaching somewhere between 19’C and 24’C.

By Monday, we should have a more southerly flow, or perhaps more south-easterly. Good spells of sunshine should remain, though temperatures will depend on wind direction – somewhere between 20’C and 25’C. An outside chance of a heavy shower in the evening or overnight.

How much longer this lasts for is still guesswork – it could be at little as one more day, or perhaps up to 7-10 more days. There is the potential, and I stress the word “potential” for temperatures to reach the high 20s – but it does require a fairly specific outcome in terms of positional of the high pressure. However, that specific outcome is currently the slightly more likely outcome. Temperatures somewhere between 20’C and 24’C are instead also very feasible. And there will be a risk of scattered thundery showers.

Towards the end of May my working assumption is that things become more changeable, with short showery spells intertwined with short-ish dry sunny-ish spells. Temperatures more often on the warm/very warm side, occasionally close to normal.

Not bad. Not bad at all. Well, unless you prefer it cold and wet.

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