For those tempted to give up on the idea of summer, things are about to improve. Warmer, drier and sunnier this – though none of them are particular difficult to achieve in comparison to late.
Nothing special, but a big improvement.
Thanks to Kate for the photograph.
Further heavy showers this evening though they will become fewer and start to fade later in the evening, and will all have faded by around midnight. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.
Tuesday still has quite a lot of cloud around, especially in the morning, though with some sunny spells and probably initially rather sunny. Sunshine amounts increasing as the afternoon goes on. Probably dry, but a light/moderate shower cannot be ruled out. 21’C. Some cloud overnight, though mostly high level, down to around 13’C.
Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure across the south of the UK – with low pressure to the west, in the Atlantic.
Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud in the morning, I think likely more cloud than sun from around lunchtime onwards, but reasonably pleasant. Warm, 23’C. Quite cloudy overnight, though some clear spells, down to around 14’C.
Thursday starts rather cloudy due to a weak weather front – perhaps a spot of light rain. It will break up to leave some decent sunny spells for the afternoon. Around 23’C – perhaps more if the cloud breaks up quicker. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud at times also, down to around 13’C.
Friday is the last day that I can be confident for in this forecast. The previously mentioned low pressure to our west will be over Scotland – further north than of late thanks to the jetstream being further north.
But another low pressure system to the south-west looks tricky to forecast.
So Friday overall probably sees more cloud than sun, but there will be sunny spells especially later in the afternoon. An outside chance of a shower. Around 23’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 13’C.
The weekend is highly uncertain still.
If forced to choose, then I’d suggest more cloud than sunshine on Saturday and warm, more sunshine than cloud on Sunday and very warm – with the low pressure either staying west or maybe not even making it to the UK. Until this tricky low pressure to our south-west is resolved, the forecast for the weekend will be uncertain and next week impossible in any detail. Rain or showers will remain possible outcomes instead.
My best suggestion for next week is a mixture of some very warm days with some sunshine, and some unsettled days with rain/showers. But it could easily be a wash-out, or even a notably sunny and warm week. I stress, lots of uncertainty and a very messy picture.
Suggestions remain that drier, sunnier and warmer conditions become more likely as the month goes on, and perhaps even hot later on. But fairly low confidence.