Monday 8th May 2023

A mixed and generally showery week ahead, though it does include a bit of sunshine. Not today though.

Thanks to Kate for the very suitable photograph.

Bank Holiday Monday sees rain spread across after a bright start. Generally light/moderate rain and patchy in nature – it won’t really get going until early evening, when it will become heavy and persistent. Reaching around 14’C – occasional bright spells possible. Rain continuing for a while overnight, clearing in the early hours. 12’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees the large area of low pressure in the Atlantic in charge, a blocking high to our east – and the Azores High starting to push north much further to our west, which will lead to a cooler flow after Tuesday.

Cloudy to start the day, but eventually the sun will poke through – this will lead to frequent heavy showers developing, perhaps very heavy with hail and thunder. Feeling on the warm side, reaching around 18’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday again sees sunshine and plenty of heavy showers. Somewhat fewer showers and somewhat less potent than Tuesday, but hail and thunder still possible, and most places sees at least a few showers. A bit cooler in the breeze, 16’C. Often cloudy overnight, one or two showers still around, down to around 8’C.

Same kind of story for Thursday – some sunny spells, but lots of heavy/very heavy showers developing, with hail/thunder possible. Around 15’C. Showers fading fairly quickly in the evening, clear spells to start though a chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 6’C.

Something of an improvement for Friday (though I do enjoy the heavy, thundery showers myself), with much fewer showers – around a 30% chance of one or two, though some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Early mist/fog and low cloud may take a while to clear – some uncertainty how much sunshine for the afternoon, it could become very pleasant, or it may well stay mostly cloudy. Temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 19’C, depending on sunshine amounts. More low cloud may well spill in from the east overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Saturday we are just about under high pressure – with one low pressure system close to our south-east, another to our north-west.

There’s uncertainty on details for Saturday due to the exact positioning of the low pressure to our south-east. Slightly more likely it is a fairly pleasant day with spells of sunshine, though the north-easterly breeze taking the edge off temperatures and a chance of a shower – reaching around 17’C, perhaps more. Slightly less likely, we struggle to clear the overnight cloud and maybe we get some sunshine later in the day, but temperatures struggle to around 14’C.

The general theme for Sunday sees a weather front pushing down from the north-west – but more likely later in the day, so probably some sunshine before that, and temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 19’C more likely. Cloud amounts and shower chances generally increasing as the afternoon goes on. There is some uncertainty so don’t be too surprised if this weather front arrives earlier in the day – or even overnight on Sunday instead.

The more likely outcome for early next week, sees a chilly northerly flow with showers. Hmmm. No particular signals for the rest of the week, but I’d plump for showery more likely than dry.

On the bright side, I’m increasingly confident that June will be sunnier, drier and warmer than normal.

Next forecast probably on Friday morning. Enjoy the showers.

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