Becoming warm and wet is the headline for this week.
You are going to have to forgive me a bit on this forecast though. The general pattern will be for low pressure to develop and track south-east during Wednesday, and sit down for a while from Thursday onwards just to the west of France.
This means it will start sucking in a warm easterly flow, likely humid too.
So from Thursday, there will be bands of rain circulating around this area of low pressure going east to west – I expect some parts of England/Wales will see copious amounts of rainfall during this week, perhaps a month’s worth, and potentially some localised flooding. At the moment I do expect this to be more likely over the west of England/Wales – but I cannot rule out quite a soaking for us too.
In between the rain, there will be the potential for torrential and thundery downpours – again not possible in advance to be sure where will catch these.
Expect vagueness and uncertainty, though I’m certainly looking forward to an interesting week of weather!
Thanks to Paul for the photograph.
Variable cloud tonight, down to around 10’C.
Tuesday sees spells of cloud, but there will be some sunny spells also…probably a more cloud than sun overall. A small chance of an afternoon shower, feeling warmer, around 18’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, some bits of showery rain starting to develop before dawn, down to around 11’C.
Wednesday sees the low pressure that will come to dominate our weather for a few days, slip down from the north-west and start to develop.
It will be rather cloudy during Wednesday – a bit of brightness at times, but also some occasional showery rain. Showery rain perhaps more likely in the morning, but really uncertain about the distribution right now. A low chance of general heavy rain late in the day though I think this more likely over west England – more likely just a scattered heavy shower or two. Around 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight with some showers, though if we ended up in the rain area late on Wednesday, it would likely rain all night instead. Around 10’C.
Thursday starts with a bit of sunshine, though will overall see more cloud than sunshine. Heavy showers will develop and spread west, could be some very heavy rain mixed in, a smallish chance of thunder too. Around 18’C – quite windy as an easterly wind picks up. Showers still possible overnight – also a chance of rain spreading back up from the south late in the night, 12’C.
For Friday, low pressure is sat firmly to the west of France – dragging in an unstable, easterly flow – which has a warm source.
Friday is already in the bounds of uncertainty, though the more likely outcome sees a band of heavy rain spread north, perhaps more likely during the morning. Could be some very heavy rain mixed in, perhaps thunder. Sunny spells may follow, and assuming so, one or two scattered heavy downpours. Warmer and likely more humid, 20’C should be reached despite the rain, perhaps higher. Still quite windy. Showers possibly overnight, though not especially likely, 14’C.
Saturday looks warmer and sunnier, we may just about get to 25’C – though expect some humidity too. Some cloud will bubble up and scattered showers will develop – no guarantee of catching one, but if you do, then hail, torrential rain and a decent amount of lightning could be your reward. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.
Sunday, again not especially confident on details, but some sunny spells expected, likely warm or very warm, and a fair chance of scattered thundery downpours. Around 23’C – give or take.
A lack of confidence for next week, though I’d suggest something warm with occasional heavy showers is the most likely outcome, at least to start with.
For the end of next week the slightly more likely outcome right now suggests something quite hot…but with a risk of thundery downpours.
I remind you of the uncertainty of the position of rain bands this Wednesday onwards – I will attempt updates in the morning especially if things have changed significantly from the above.