Monday 8th July 2024

More rain to come. It is July, after all.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general pattern to start the week is fairly innocuous, but a stalled low pressure to our south-west will be developing, and start to head our way, and the jetstream, though a bit weaker, is much further south than should be normal in summer.

It will be a fairly cloudy day, the cloud thin enough for some hazy sunshine at times, but on the flip side also some showers – mostly from late morning through early afternoon. Around 17’C or so. Further rain arrives during the evening, some heavy bursts at times, particularly around midnight and into the early hours. It should be dry by dawn. No lower than 14’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a few sunny spells. Further showery rain will spread up from the south by late morning, perhaps heavy, an outside chance of thunder. Around 19’C – the air source is warmer. One or two showers in the evening and overnight, around 15’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, showers still possible – though it should improve as low pressure pulls away to the north. The afternoon gradually becoming sunnier, showers by this point unlikely – though not impossible. Warmer, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Thursday looks a reasonable day – plenty of high/mid-level of cloud meaning hazy sunshine for much of the day, but otherwise fine. Around 22’C. A chance of some heavy showers spreading up from the south-west by the evening, but uncertain on this. This chance of heavy showers or even heavy rain continues overnight – due to an expected low pressure system over northern France, but it is uncertain as to how far north it gets.

Friday sees high pressure building in from the north-west – but also a likely low pressure over northern France, perhaps into south-east England too.

Friday is uncertain as it will depend on the positioning of the low – at best, showery and around 18’C or so, at worst, wet at around 14’C.

Low confidence also for Saturday, and it will depend on what happened on Friday. If low pressure was further away on Friday, and it was showery, then Saturday most likely would also be along the lines of sunshine and showers, around 20’C. If low pressure was closer, then we may still have cloud and rain to start, and it would be a gradual improvement though likely on the cloudy side, and around 16’C.

Sunday, again not especially high confidence, though more likely sunnier, warmer and drier than it has been, around 21’C or so.

Next week likely starts with more low pressure approaching – with the jetstream as far south as northern France, this ain’t good if you want summer.

Can summer be rescued? There remain hints of a spell of high pressure in the latter half of July, but I think high amounts of scepticism are required when the jetstream is so far south – it will need something to happen to push it back north.

Oh well. At least we have the football to enjoy.

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