Well the cold spell has certainly started – even if you haven’t seen much in the way of snow.
Thanks to Adam for the photograph. Fog is about as close to a wintry scene that I can manage from your photographs!
Tonight will be mostly cloudy and cold – one or two light snow showers may make it this far inland. Windy, frosty and possibly icy, down to around -3’C.
For Tuesday we remain in this really cold easterly flow.
Mostly cloudy, cold and windy though some brightness at times. There remains a chance of snow showers, though a fairly small chance – it will depend on exact wind direction and whether any streamers set up through the Thames. Scraping 1’C. That small chance of snow showers remains in the evening and overnight, and cloud amounts reducing as the night goes on too. Down to around -3’C.
Wednesday sees a bit more in the way of sunshine, lighter winds and still a small chance of a stray snow shower getting this far inland. 2’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and lighter winds mean a harder frost – down to around -5’C, perhaps even lower.
Thursday sees a bit of a change as the Atlantic starts to make an effort to dislodge the cold block, causing the wind direction to turn more south-easterly.
Generally fairly sunny though some high cloud later. Quite cloudy overnight, down to around -4’C.
Friday remains cold. Most likely it will be bright with some cloud in the morning, and more sunshine later. But there is a small chance that a weather front may push inland during the day or night, from the west, bringing a bit of snow before it fizzles out – unlikely but worth a mention. Around 0’C. Cold and frosty overnight, down to around -5’C.
For Saturday we continue with the theme of milder weather trying to push in from the west but the cold block to our east is stubborn. It will remain cold, and most likely sunny – again I cannot totally rule out a weather front pushing in from the west bringing some patchy snow, but most likely the cold block holds and it stays dry. Around 0’C – the wind picking up once more too. Most likely cold and frosty overnight, down to around -4’C.
Similar on Sunday, the cold block should hold but those weather fronts edging that bit closer from the west. Uncertain on cloud amounts but suggestion that temperatures should pick up a tad in the southerly wind, around 2’C. Not often it is that cold in a southerly wind!
Next week is uncertain. The battle between the cold block and the milder, wetter weather will continue, but whether the cold block can hang on – or whether the milder, wetter weather (with significant snow at first) can take over, is uncertain.
I’d suggest that the cold and dry weather is the slight favourite at this stage.
I do expect much of the rest of February and early March to be cold and dry – there could easily be further snow too. Mild blips are possible in the week or so after mid-month, but the trend should remain mostly cold, often dry, occasional snow possible.
Fairly strong suggestions now that March and April will be drier than normal. Uncertain on high pressure positions, most likely orientated for colder weather for the first half of March, but as the sun strengthens in late March and into April, things will warm up – becoming warmer than normal at times.
My thoughts a few weeks ago were that spring would be colder than normal, but I feel now that the sudden-stratospheric warming event has properly flushed down to our level (hence the cold easterly) it has now swung the balance in spring to both spells of colder than normal weather and warmer than normal weather. I shall be issuing my spring forecast in a few weeks.