Monday 8th April 2024

A mixed week ahead – but this does include something warmer and drier to end. Spring is definitely here.

Thanks to Catherine for the photograph.

So we start the week with low pressure close to the north of Scotland, and a little secondary low powering up to our south-west, and heading our way.

Mostly it will be quite grey today with lots of mid-level cloud, though this should allow some bright spells with hazy sunshine at times. Reaching around 16’C, perhaps a little more. Between mid-afternoon and early evening, an area of heavy showers will spread up from the south-west, perhaps thundery – but showers so maybe you’ll miss them. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, the odd bit of light/moderate patchy rain around, especially towards dawn – but the wind the main story, with strong winds developing. Down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy with bits and pieces of rain – mostly light/moderate though the odd heavy shower mixed in possibly – I stress the patchy nature. From around lunchtime onwards, slowly seeing more in the way of sunny spells, still a chance of a shower. Around 12’C and winds remaining strong. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C though the wind fading.

Wednesday starts bright with hazy sunshine but cloud will thicken with rain arriving by late morning/lunchtime. Light/moderate rain – not expecting anything heavy, clearing around late afternoon/early evening. Around 12’C and windy once more. Remaining cloudy in the evening and overnight, with occasional light rain, staying around 12’C.

Thursday sees a ridge of high pressure building over the south of the UK – still a lot of cloud to start the day, and some uncertainty as to whether it will break up. Certainly the morning looks cloudy, still some patchy light rain – then the cloud potentially breaks up in the afternoon, the slightly more likely outcome – if it does, then 20’C will easily be reached, if it stays cloudy then 16’C is more realistic. Breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 12’C.

By Friday high pressure is building fairly strongly over the south of the UK, the upper air is warmer than normal, the source of the air is warm. Alas, the jetstream is close to our north and the potential for cloud remains.

So I think more likely it starts cloudy, more likely it becomes sunny – perhaps with long spells of sunshine, but I do stress some uncertainty over cloud amounts throughout the day. I can promise dry. 18’C, 19’C should be reached – 20’C, maybe 21’C if we get long spells of sunshine. Breezy. Potentially the day almost everyone is waiting for…or so it seems! Down to around 10’C overnight.

Can it hang on for Saturday? Yes, just about though increased chances of high cloud making the sunshine hazy, and also some lower-level cloud later in the day perhaps. Otherwise bright with at least some hazy sunshine, still breezy, and temperatures between 18’C and 22’C.

Sunday is more uncertain – more likely a weak weather front overnight will have introduced cooler air. Low confidence, but a fair day seems more likely, some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower – and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C. Not impossible that there is a spell of rain instead.

Early next week looks like a cooler north-westerly flow – perhaps even a full-on northerly Arctic blast with wintry showers – perhaps!

The trend towards the end of April should be towards high pressure building close by, with drier conditions more likely. Too far away to know where high pressure might set up, and hence temperatures and sunshine/cloud amounts – I think warmer flows less likely than average/cooler flows though. We’ll see, there could easily be a mix as is standard for this time of year.

At least there’s some warm days to look forward to! Have a good week.

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