Monday 6th March 2023

A forecaster’s nightmare this week – thankfully I’m just doing this for fun! It will probably snow at some point(s) – but so much uncertainty right from the start.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

This evening and tonight sees a weather front slowly sink south, with bits and pieces of rain, occasionally quite heavy in the early hours, and in places (mostly with altitude) there could be some sleet/wet snow mixed in, early hours onwards. Getting down to 2’C by dawn.

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of mostly light rain, though maybe occasionally falling as sleet/snow, especially if there is anything a bit heavier than light rain. Some sunny spells later in the day. Notably cold for early March, 4’C. Overnight, the first in a series of weather fronts will try to push up from the south-west. Perhaps it stays to our south, but most likely it will bring a spell of snow (maybe rain/sleet at first). The heaviest currently looks like it will be a little further south than our region, but a slushy 1-2cm seems the more likely outcome by dawn – but don’t be too surprised if there is nothing, or it snows and doesn’t settle – that kind of thing. Becoming breezy, no higher than 1’C.

The general picture on Wednesday is the same as it will be all week – cold air pushing down from the north, but low pressure with milder air trying to push up from the south-west. Where they meet, heavy snow can fall, though further south than the battleground will be heavy rain. Hence why forecasting will be so difficult this week – the line between 1’C and snow, and 10’C and rain, could be as little as 50 miles.

Most likely, in the morning we’ll see patchy snow fade away, perhaps some light rain/sleet before it clears – then cloudy and cold, then the next weather front tries to push up from the south-west.

Again, it is possible that this stays to our south, but more likely it pushes this far north, perhaps it starts as rain/sleet depending on what time it arrives – which, shock horror, is also uncertain. If it arrives around 2/3/4pm then more likely it starts as rain and turns to snow as it gets heavier, but if it arrives in the evening (less likely) then more likely it starts as snow. Quite a lot of factors involved, so don’t be surprised if you just see rain, or get snow but it doesn’t settle – I’d hazard a guess at roughly 1-2cm widely, probably rather slushy. Around 4’C, but temperatures will drop as the rain/snow gets heavier – assuming, of course, that it doesn’t stay to our south!

That area of snow and maybe rain will clear overnight – some clear spells perhaps, a frost possible, down to around -1’C – before the next weather front approaches.

Thursday’s weather system looks like it will have pushed further north, so though in the morning it is slightly more likely to be showery sleet/snow than showery rain, in the afternoon it will be showery rain, some heavy, maybe very heavy. Becoming windy. Cold to start, but 10’C (ish) by the evening. Further heavy showers in the first part of the night, mostly dry and fairly cloudy after midnight, 8’C. Strong winds.

Friday starts windy – gales possible. Fairly cloudy though some sunshine possible. In the afternoon, the next weather front tries to push in from the south-west – which would bring rain but at this stage is pretty much 50/50 as to whether it makes it this far north, or stays to our south (with colder air digging south once more). Around 8’C. The cold air probably wins overnight, and pushes back south – though fairly low confidence. Otherwise, I don’t know – frost, rain, sleet, snow, dry, cloudy, clear – could be anything.

The weekend? Erm.

Saturday more likely back to the battleground between colder and milder – so maybe some bits of rain around as weather fronts push in, possibly some sleet/snow, more likely on the colder side of the spectrum.

Sunday more likely mild/very mild, though if so, expect a spell of rain at some point.

The more likely outcome for next week is changeable – rain/wind on some days, generally milder though one or two colder days could be mixed in.

Well, it was about time it got interesting!

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