Monday 6th February 2023

Frost is back.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies with a frost – widely down to around -2’C, though sheltered spots a little colder. Freezing fog will form in some places by dawn.

High pressure remains in control this week (and probably almost all month). This week allowing for some cold nights, but maybe in time it re-orientates itself to allow for some mild weather, perhaps even fooling us with the idea of a very early spring – more on that later.

Fog patches in places to start the day, otherwise sunny – with long spells of sunshine developing for all. Reaching 7’C, maybe 8’C. Clear spells overnight and frosty, widely down to around -3’C, colder in more sheltered spots, and freezing fog forming in places – likely more widespread than the night before.

Wednesday starts foggy for many – this taking a bit of time to lift, but it should be sunny everywhere by lunchtime, or earlier. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, reaching 6’C, maybe 7’C. Clear skies overnight with a frost at first – down to around -1’C or so. Cloud thickening as the night goes on, as a weak weather front brings cloud from the north-west, maybe a spot of light rain.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. The weather front will clear around late morning, allowing hazy sunshine for the rest of the day. 8’C. A bit of uncertainty on cloud thickness overnight, but likely fairly high cloud so sufficiently thin for a frost – down to around -2’C.

Friday looks generally like hazy sunshine, temperatures reaching around 8’C. Some thicker cloud around overnight so probably not a frost, but a fairly close call so don’t be shocked if there is one. Down to around 2’C.

By Saturday high pressure should be positioned to allow a southerly-ish flow – a mild position (heatwave were it summer).

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, but generally more likely cloudier than sunnier in the morning – with the reverse in the afternoon. Mild, somewhere between 10’C and 12’C – kind of almost pleasant. Frost and/or fog possible overnight.

Some uncertainty for Sunday – it will be dry and on the mild side, somewhere between 9’C and 12’C (well, unless overnight fog persists). But whether it will be cloudy or sunny or somewhere in between is uncertain – as is the overnight fog persisting question.

Monday likely still dry and mild-ish – otherwise uncertain.

Tuesday looks like it will see a weather front push down from the north-west – it might even bring a bit more than a spot of rain. Still mild.

Then the somewhat more likely outcome sees high pressure position itself to our south with a mild flow slightly more likely than not. Perhaps very mild, maybe even kind of quite warm and spring-like, at least relative for February – but that needs a fairly perfect set-up at this time of year, and more likely is normal or mild weather. Plausible that we could have an early taste of spring, but no more than that at this stage.

But don’t get carried away. There is an increasing chance that the coming stratospheric warming event, for around a week or so’s time could be a sudden stratospheric warming event (remember the stratosphere is way above us), which would greatly increase the chance of cold weather starting 2-4 weeks afterwards.

Still around a 50/50 chance, though confidence is increasing – and an SSW never guarantees cold for the UK, but it does increase the chances of blocking highs forming and persisting in areas that lead to cold weather, ie easterlies. So certainly the second half of March and good chunks of April, could well be on the cold side with wintry precipitation possible IF the SSW happens and leads to the polar vortex splitting.

Plenty of if’s, as usual – though in a week or so, we may have a good idea what spring will be like.

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