There’s more rain to come, though it should settle down next week.
Thanks to Paul for the gloomy photograph.
Tonight will see plenty of cloud, some clear spells and also a few showers – more likely in the few hours after midnight. Around 10’C.
Tuesday sees low pressure still in charge, now to our north-east.
There will be some sunshine, but there will be plenty of showers – some heavy/very heavy, perhaps even with hail or a rumble of thunder. Quite windy, reaching around 15’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.
For Wednesday we will still be in the cool north-westerly flow, but we’ll lose the showers and just have some sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud. Still breezy, 14’C. Clouding over in the evening, with rain arriving at some point. Wet overnight, 12’C.
A bit of uncertainty for Thursday in terms of when rain clears – it could clear around dawn, or may hang around for a while. At some point, clear and brighter weather will spread down from the north-west. Around 15’C. Further rain probable overnight – though all the weather models have a different take right now and I’m not yet convinced by any.
Friday is uncertain due to the aforementioned area of rain from Thursday night. Assuming rain arrived on Thursday night, then it will likely rain for a good portion of Friday, and this is the slightly more likely outcome.
As I said, all the weather models have a different take on Thursday night’s system, and feasibly the rain could end up going much further north of us, or even staying to our south – and therefore Friday would be a bright day with sunny spells. The slightly more likely outcome is rain.
Saturday is likely to see us in a cool northerly flow, with low pressure close to our east – this does assume either that the rain arrived for Thursday night/Friday or it stayed to our south. So on that assumption, some sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers – perhaps merging into longer spells of rain, and around 12’C at best. Also windy. Quite cold overnight.
Sunday again should be in this cool northerly flow. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud, the odd shower. Around 12’C and windy. Rather cold overnight again.
Next week should start to see high pressure build from the west. Probably not a perfect process, showers remain possible, and plenty of cloud and still some chilly temperatures for the time of year.
As the week goes on, temperatures should recover to normal (say 15’C or so) with more in the way of sunshine. Fog chances will increase.
Looking further ahead as I occasionally like to do, November looks like it will see a cooler north-westerly flow more often than not, though not an especially wet outlook as it stands – and not always on the cool side.
Tentative signs that December may see some cold and wintry weather – whether that is a longer cold spell, or just occasional northerly cold snaps is way too far away to know. But I feel there is more potential for a colder than normal December then there has been in recent years, or at least some cold weather.
Milder and wetter conditions look more likely for January and February.
There are just early thoughts and my winter forecast won’t be issued until very early December. Plenty could happen before then – La Niña could become too strong to fancy a colder December, alternatively maybe we could get an early season sudden stratospheric warming event to increase the chance of a significant early cold spell.
Impossible to know until nearer the time. But it is shaping up to be fairly interesting so far. Then again…last winter looked like it would be fairly interesting at the same point in 2019.