Monday 4th July 2022

The Azores High takes control. Summer…but with some cloud at first.

Any images sent to me as Facebook messages are coming through with such low resolution (ie image quality) that they are unusable. So if you want to send me a photograph to use, until Facebook fixes their “upgrade” then you can e-mail them to – or maybe try attaching them to the Facebook posts as a comment?

Thanks to Lorraine, who did the latter a week or so ago.

Sunny spells this evening with reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday sees the Azores High, to our west, and slowly nudging eastwards.

Whilst it is situated to our west, there is always a risk of importing/developing a significant amount of cloud, and this will be the case on Tuesday. After a sunny start, it will quickly become cloudy, probably rather overcast. As the afternoon goes on, it will thin and break to an extent to give some sunny spells – and more so by the evening. Around 20’C. Clear skies for a time overnight, though some more cloud later – down to around 12’C.

Wednesday starts bright with a mixture of cloud and hazy sunny spells. A lot of cloud follows, but a bit thinner than Tuesday so allowing more in the way of brightness, and then some sunny spells later in the afternoon. Very warm, despite the cloud, 25’C should be reached, maybe a tad more. Fairly cloudy overnight, and on the warm side – down to around 15’C.

Thursday morning looks mostly cloudy, but the cloud should start to break up a bit earlier, say around lunchtime, and during the afternoon there will be pretty good spells of sunshine – not quite glorious, but we are getting there. Very warm again, though with a more northerly direction to the breeze, so reaching around 25’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees our friend, the Azores High, stretching all the way from the Azores, across the UK – though still centred to our west.

A bit of uncertain on cloud amounts, but broadly some sunny spells, some cloud – though whether there is more cloud than sun overall is uncertain. Likely on the hot side, between 26’C and 28’C, depending on cloud amounts. Reasonably clear skies overnight and fairly warm, down to around 15’C.

Saturday will be very similar. Some cloud again, particularly around the lunchtime period, but decent sunny spells at times, particularly in the first part of the morning and from mid-afternoon onwards. It should be hot, somewhere between 26’C and 29’C most likely. Clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

Sunday continues on the same theme, though probably a bit more sunshine and a bit less cloud. Still on the hot side, somewhere between 26’C and 29’C most likely.

Almost certainly next week remains dry all week, almost certainly it remains hot. Still some uncertainty over exactly where the high pressure system will be – will it stay to our west, or maybe drift over us? As such, that means there is some uncertainty on cloud amounts – though sunshine totals should be higher than cloud amounts.

Also uncertainty as to how hot it will go, though somewhere in the range of 26’C to 32’C, with some variability, is more likely.

A small chance of it becoming very hot around the weekend after, though more likely it stays within the more normal levels of hot, between 26’C and 32’C.

Suggestions that after mid-month, very roughly somewhere between 18th to 24th, there is a chance of some showers, though high pressure is likely to take back control for the end of July, with further hot weather likely.

One final thought, it wouldn’t surprise me if we broke the UK temperature record this month. It would need several factors to come together, so it is only a VERY SMALL chance – but with unusual heat anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, warmer sea surface temperatures near the UK, drier than normal conditions in both Spain and the UK on the ground (I think France too but they have had more rain recently) – the ingredients are there so if the right weather pattern sets up, then it could happen.

It does need a few things to happen though, particularly for our Azores High to move to our east, along with low pressure to develop west of Spain/Portugal – neither of which currently look likely.

One to watch – it is possible but only a very small chance of happening. For now, enjoy the slightly imperfect summer week or two…or maybe three…or four.

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