Monday 4th April 2022

Mild to start the week but becoming colder once more – some rain at times too.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd splash of light rain possible but mostly dry. No lower than 10’C with a bit of a breeze.

For Tuesday we have a westerly flow, though with a milder sector of air.

A lot of cloud around though there will be some limited sunny breaks – and more notably some sunny spells by late afternoon. Quite windy but mild, 15’C – pleasant in late afternoon sunshine. Clear spells to start the night, a weak weather front bringing cloud and a little patchy rain later in the night, quite windy and down to around 8’C.

Wednesday sees low pressure over Scotland, and this will drive showers our way too. A lot of cloud around in the morning, with showers or more general showery rain. More in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon, but a fair few showers around, which could be heavy. Windy, reaching around 12’C. Further showers likely overnight, with some colder air starting to filter south, down to around 5’C.

Thursday is more complicated as we have colder air pushing south, but also low pressure with milder air pushing north-east towards us.

The morning may start cloudy with some rain, but at the moment it is uncertain whether the low pressure system to the south will get this far north. So it could start sunny and chilly instead. I’d suggest around 60/40 in terms of chances.

Either way, sunny spells and a few scattered showers will push south for the afternoon – around 10’C, but feeling colder especially in any showers.

Again overnight there is similar uncertainty, with rain trying to push up from the south. This time it is around 50/50 as to whether we see some rain later on in the night and into Friday morning – with an outside chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in. Or the other option being clear skies, perhaps on the hazy side, with a slight frost in places.

Similarly to Thursday, whichever outcome happened for Friday morning, I’d expect sunny spells and a few scattered showers in the afternoon, with temperatures around 9’C but feeling colder. Clear and frosty overnight, down to around -1’C.

For Saturday, we are still in the colder air mass but temperatures just about squeezing to 11’C. Some sunny spells, quite a lot of fair weather cloud and one or two scattered showers – though some places staying dry. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud – a frost likely for most, down to around -1’C.

Sunday sees high pressure remain in control but low pressure will be approaching from the west. Generally hazy sunshine though cloud gradually thickening during the day. The breeze turning more southerly so temperatures and general feel improving, 12’C, maybe 13’C.

Next week looks potentially quite warm on some days – but with general rain or bands of heavy showers likely some or maybe most days, due to low pressure being close to our west. So we might get a few hours or even a day or two of pleasant warmish sunshine at some point next week, but generally it looks changeable – just warmer than this week. And, of course, this is a week away and definitely isn’t set in stone yet.

Thanks to the recent strong final warming event in the stratosphere, I still see most of April and May being fairly disappointing in terms of sunshine and warmth, with any prolonged settled and warm spells unlikely until June – but that doesn’t mean that we won’t see shorter warm/settled spells during this period, mixed between low pressure systems.

And perhaps some brief very warm spells towards the end of May – quickly followed by downpours though.

Overall though, I suspect we’ll end up with a fairly unsettled April and May, with temperatures balancing out around normal – but with some short pleasant/warm spells mixed in.

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