Frosty and/or foggy starts but more sunshine to come, and temperatures ticking up. A few days of spring…though don’t expect it to last.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees high pressure in control – the jetstream is to the north taking low pressure systems far away from us, and also a low pressure over Portugal/Spain.

Early mist/fog patches will clear quite swiftly on Monday to leave long spells of sunshine. Maybe a bit of high cloud at times but pretty glorious otherwise. Reaching 10’C, maybe 11’C. Clear skies for much of the night, down to around -2’C and it will be frosty. Mist/fog patches forming by dawn – not everywhere.

Tuesday again starts with mist/fog patches in places – sunny from the off in others. Mist/fog will lift to leave long spells of sunshine and very little, if any cloud. Reaching around 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud. A frost likely, down to around -1’C, mist/fog patches again possible towards dawn.

By Wednesday we’ll be picking up more of a south-westerly flow, so it will be milder. Again there will be early mist/fog in some places to clear, but otherwise we’ll see long spells of sunshine with little cloud, if any. Reaching 14’C, with a bit of a breeze. Clear skies overnight though probably no frost, down to around 2’C. Mist/fog patches less likely too, though still a small chance in a few spots by dawn.

For Thursday, our high pressure is more centred over the south-east of Europe, and we’ll have a southerly flow.

Again long spells of sunshine, though a little bit of cloud around – more so later in the afternoon. We should get to 15’C so feeling pretty spring-like. Cloud will thicken overnight, perhaps a splash of rain in the latter part, around 7’C.

Friday looks much cloudier, with a bit of showery rain, mostly in the morning. Perhaps some brightness/sunshine in the afternoon, but uncertain. Around 12’C. Further bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though rainfall totals pretty low, around 7’C.

The weekend is quite uncertain at this stage. It looks like low pressure over Spain/Portugal/western France will be driving somewhat warmer air through central Europe, which probably reaches us – so temperatures could easily be between 15’C and 17’C, though this is moderate confidence at best.

And the position of low pressure is uncertain, slightly more likely it is far enough away and we’ll see something fairly sunny though with some cloud at times, the slightly less likely outcome sees it a bit closer to the UK, and we’ll have something cloudier with some showers (not a washout by any means) and still some sunny spells possible.

Fairly high uncertainty for the week after, but high pressure close to our north seems a more likely outcome, temperatures back to average at best, but perhaps notably cold instead. Overnight frosts would be likely once more, and maybe mist/fog.

With regards to the sudden stratospheric warming event I mentioned in the seasonal forecast, it still looks likely to happen circa 10th March. So any time two weeks from there onwards we’d probably see the effects…cannot say I’m excited about the possible return to winter for late March or April, but hey ho…let’s see what happens. SSW events don’t always lead to colder weather in north-western Europe, just around 65% of the time.