Monday 3rd July 2023

A changeable week ahead though becoming warmer towards the weekend.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees low pressure in charge, over Scandinavia, bringing relatively cooler weather – for July, anyway.

Today starts with sunny spells but cloud will quickly bubble up, with a few showers developing and spreading east – more especially during late morning and into early/mid afternoon. Windy, feeling cool yet still just about reaching 20’C. Tending to be more sunshine later in the day. Clear spells at first overnight but cloud thickening after midnight – some bits of rain possible towards dawn. Down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, perhaps with outbreaks of rain. During the morning the rain will develop, become heavy, perhaps occasionally very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Some uncertainty as to when it clears but roughly somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening, with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers replacing it. Reaching around 18’C – assuming some late sunshine. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though a shower still possible, and fairly chilly – down to around 9’C.

Wednesday will be calmer, sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few showers in the breeze. Around a 60% chance of catching one or two showers, and they could be heavy. Reaching around 21’C, feeling warmer. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

By Thursday, the Scandinavian low is actually back to the west of us, having done some unusual spiralling back on itself – and merging with a new incoming low.

However, as these two lows dance together, they’ll stall to our west and allow much warmer air to spread from the south.

So for Thursday, it will be mostly fine – some high-level cloud making it a bit hazy at times, and plenty of general mid-level and fair-weather cloud so not the sunniest day ever, but bright with some sunny spells. Reaching around 20’C, maybe 21’C, and just a small chance of a fairly light shower. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday is back to summer. Long spells of sunshine, perhaps hazy at times and temperatures in the range of 25’C to 27’C – feeling hot in the southerly breeze. A warmer night, down to around 15’C with a smallish chance of an overnight shower, possibly thundery.

Saturday is much more uncertain. I’m more tempted by the idea that the warmth hangs on for another day, though with a risk of some heavy, perhaps thundery showers developing later. However, it could instead just be showery/wet and warm, or perhaps hot, sunny and dry. Going with what I feel is the more likely outcome, temperatures should be in the range of 25’C to 28’C.

These potential thundery breakdowns can be a nightmare to forecast 1 day away – let alone 5.

Sunday likely still warm/very warm – perhaps hot though less likely. Rain/showers/thunderstorms likely at some point or points – but totally impossible to give any other guidance right now.

Most likely the low pressure area will gradually move across the UK next week – so a pretty un-summer week is likely. Some warmth possible, but expect plenty of heavy, thundery showers and perhaps general wind and rain.

Gosh, it feels like a Monday morning, doesn’t it?

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