Monday 3rd January 2022

A colder week this week after our short, unusually mild spell. Some rain, some sun, some frost – maybe even a wintry surprise.

Also I’d like to wish you all a happy new year. Let’s hope the weather is more interesting this year, and we actually get a bit more sunshine this year!

And thanks to Tina for the wonderfully bleak photograph.

Tonight will be fairly cloudy, down to around 6’C. Showers arriving from the north around or just before dawn.

Tomorrow sees colder air spread down from the north.

A band of showers will sink south during the morning, some heavy showers possible, perhaps a bit of sleet or wet snow mixed in but it should be mostly rain. Sunshine but colder air follows, 7’C at dawn but 4’C in the afternoon in a cold northerly wind. Clear spells overnight, probably a frost overnight with temperatures close to 0’C – though still windy.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny but cold, 5’C. A fairly sharp frost overnight, down to around -3’C, perhaps lower especially in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts bright with hazy sunshine – though frosty too. Cloud will gradually thicken from the west, with outbreaks of rain from around 1/2pm. Rain clearing around 8/9pm (give or take), probably quite heavy for a short spell. Windy, 5’C. Clear spells overnight, some cloud, one or two passing showers possible and down to around 2’C.

Friday looks fairly sunny, breezy and cold. Some fair weather cloud and a smallish chance of a shower, perhaps of a wintry note. 5’C. Likely frosty overnight, though cloud starting to thicken by dawn. Down to around -1’C.

Saturday then sees another spell of rain crossing the country. Likely dry to start, rain roughly mid-morning to mid-afternoon, though that time could shift a bit. Windy and somewhat milder at around 8’C. Probably dry overnight, down to around 3’C though very give and take.

Sunday is still a bit uncertain. The more likely outcome is for it to start dry with rain later – either arriving in the afternoon or evening. Temperatures around 7’C, give or take.

Next week likely starts changeable, and probably milder.

High pressure does look like it will gradually build during next week so becoming predominantly dry from around mid-week. Uncertain at this stage whether it will be mild and cloudy, or cold and sunny with frost/fog potential – though mild and cloudy is the slight favourite.

I don’t see this high pressure system hanging around long, maybe a week tops, but we’ll see. The most likely outcome for the final third of January is a return to wet and windy weather, mostly normal to mild temperatures though the odd brief colder northerly with wintry showers will remain possible.

Unless something changes, I don’t foresee a significant cold and wintry spell during the rest of the winter. Of course, things do change and events do happen to cause such changes – like a sudden stratospheric warming event, so nothing can be ruled out.

Unless something changes (yes I repeat myself), I do expect high pressure to be dominant in February, though often positioned to our south this should mean a mostly average to mild month (and fairly dry and fairly cloudy) – but it is certainly possible that it could end positioned for a cold and frosty spell at times, though it isn’t especially likely.

The possibility of some early spring warmth in late February and at times in March is there. But this is a long way away!

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