Heatwave upcoming. But for how long and how hot will it get? 35.7’C was the maximum we reached on Friday, could it be beaten?
Thanks to Paul for the perfect photograph – a nice size so the quality looks good, and arguably even more important – cricket.
Globally we’ve had a bit of a shuffling of the weather cards, which shook us out of the dominant pattern of those north-westerlies interspersed with the Azores High ridging in, which we had for most of June and July – and offered the opportunity for much hotter weather at times from the very end of July.
You may recall in my seasonal forecast that I expected July to be mixed and August to potentially be the best summer month for sunshine and warmth – this will probably happen now (and July was mixed, broadly as forecasted), but if you had asked me 10 days ago before the shuffling of the global weather pattern then I was losing confidence.
Tonight will see clear spells, down to around 12’C.
Tuesday sees low pressure close to the north-west of Scotland and the Azores High ridging in across the south of England – very similar to much of July.
The band of rain stays well to our north, but we’ll have the associated cloud making sunshine hazy at times. Mid-late morning sees the thickest cloud, but still quite bright, otherwise pleasant with warm, hazy sunshine. Around 22’C and breezy. Some clear spells at first overnight, cloud tending to thicken as the night goes on, around 15’C and notably breezy.
Wednesday starts rather cloudy, the odd spot of rain possible, likewise a bit of brightness. As the afternoon goes on, the sun will increasingly shine, and it will be very warm, around 25’C – still breezy. Rather cloudy overnight, the odd spot of rain possible from a decaying weather front but mostly dry. On the warm side, 16’C as the breeze turns southerly.
Thursday sees high pressure to our east and a southerly flow from the continent – which means it will be hot.
There will be some cloud around in the morning – this will break up and as the day goes on sunshine amounts increase, to very little cloud by mid/late afternoon. A bit of uncertainty as to how hot it gets, depending on exact wind direction and how long it takes for morning cloud to disperse – almost certainly at least 28’C, though anything up to 32’C is possible. Mostly clear and fairly warm overnight, down to around 17’C.
Friday looks set to be the second very hot Friday in a row. As it stands, I think more likely a shade below last Friday, say 33’C – but this could easily upgrade…it did last week. Long spells of sunshine, but a bit of high cloud around. Warm overnight, around 19’C.
Saturday remains hot with good sunny spells – likely a bit of cloud around but not much. Temperatures most likely somewhere between 30’C and 34’C – though there is a small chance that less hot air may spread in, so something closer to 26’C is instead possible.
Sunday again has uncertainty over temperatures – fresher air will likely be trying to filter down from the north, but the heat may hang on for us in the south. Either way, it looks very pleasant with good spells of sunshine. Temperatures anywhere from 23’C to 32’C.
I cannot totally rule out a thundery shower at some point over the weekend – but there is nothing more specific at this stage, so only around a 5-10% chance as it stands.
Next week will likely follow one of two patterns.
One option seeing high pressure building over the UK, pushing the heat south but keeping us very warm with sunny spells. The other option keeping it hot/very hot with thunderstorms possible. The latter option arguably slightly more likely at this stage.
Suggestions of something more changeable later in the month, though still with the potential for brief hot spells.