Monday 2nd October 2023

Some rain today but high pressure building from tomorrow – and probably exceptionally warm for the time of year by the weekend. Clearly we had enough autumn in July.

Thanks to Mel for the photograph.

A tricky forecast for today, it starts cloudy and dull, perhaps a splash of light rain. A weather front will develop in situ, likely a bit further north than here but we’ll still get some showery rain this afternoon and into the evening. However, the complex part is that some thundery downpours will probably also develop to the south of the main weather front, ie over our area – potentially torrential with at least some thunder/lightning, but whether they are widespread, or just very localised with many places missing them, is uncertain. Reaching around 20’C – still unseasonably warm, and some hazy sunshine possible at times this afternoon, in between whatever bits of showery rain/thundery downpours we have. Cloudy with occasionally bits of showery rain overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the warmth is pushed away for Tuesday, but high pressure will be close by, ready to build.

Any early cloud will clear quickly, to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A couple of scattered heavy showers will develop during the morning, around a 50% chance of catching one, possibly with a rumble of thunder. During the afternoon, these fade, still a small chance of a light shower, but otherwise fair with sunny spells and some cloud. A fresher feel and rather breezy, but still reaching 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure start to build – quite a bit of cloud around, and sunshine more of the hazy variety. Reaching around 17’C and breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight though generally with some high cloud, down to around 9’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though it should be bright, and thinning enough for some weak hazy sunshine at times. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Weather fronts will pass close to our north overnight, there may be some patchy rain but uncertain – 60/40 it stays dry. Otherwise cloudy and around 11’C.

On Friday, high pressure makes more of a move north. We likely keep a veil of high/mid-level cloud, though as the day goes on the more this should thin, perhaps break – so hazy sunshine is the more likely outcome, but perhaps some clear skies later. Warm, 20’C, maybe 21’C. A mild night, around 14’C.

By Saturday, high pressure is likely (not 100% certain but good enough for now) to be pushing an exceptionally warm air mass north.

Likely sunny, perhaps some high cloud around, and temperatures reaching a very warm 25’C, perhaps a tad more. Down to around 15’C overnight.

Sunday should be very similar, long spells of sunshine, a bit of high cloud perhaps, and reaching somewhere in the range of 24’C to 26’C.

Monday likely remains on the warm side, though confidence is reducing.

Not especially high confidence, but a suggestion that it cools down later next week with a more northerly or north-westerly flow – and it will feel more like autumn.

Weak signals for something more changeable through mid-month with more in the way of rain or showers, and an ongoing signal for the second half of the month to be warmer than normal overall (though I’m not really pushing the boat out there!).

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