Monday 2nd August 2021

Another unsettled week, thanks to the southerly-tracking jetstream.

And thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

This evening sees slow-moving heavy showers – thunder possible as are some torrential downpours – but also some places staying dry. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 12’C – a small chance of mist or fog in a few spots by dawn.

Tuesday is another day of sunshine and heavy showers. Again plenty of cloud but more sunshine than today, and some places staying dry – around a 60% chance of catching one or two showers. 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C and again a chance of a little mist/fog in a few spots by dawn.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up again – at the moment it looks like the main focus for heavy showers will be further north than us, but still one or two scattered heavy showers possible, so around a 25% chance of catching one. Still some reasonable sunny spells and warm, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday sees the next area of low pressure arrive from the west.

Lots of cloud, a little bit of sunshine and frequent heavy showers pushing in on the notable westerly breeze. Showers more frequent and more likely to be heavy in the afternoon, perhaps very heavy, thunder possible too. A small chance of hail. Feeling fresher, around 19’C. Further showers into the evening, mostly cloudy overnight with the odd scattered shower still possible. Down to around 14’C.

Further heavy showers for Friday. Suggestions of less showers later in the afternoon but a little tentative – and overall they should be less frequent than Thursday, but still heavy with thunder possible. Some sunny spells and warmer again, around 22’C. Probably dry overnight with clear spells, down to around 12’C.

Saturday sees…yep…more heavy showers. Some sunny spells, but frequent heavy showers likely, perhaps very heavy/torrential, with thunder possible and a smaller chance of hail. Around 21’C. Likely dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday should be a bit of an improvement – still a chance of a shower, but more in the way of sunny spells and temperatures around 22’C.

Next week should start to see the Azores High pushing further east (it has been notably far west in recent weeks), the jetstream start to push north and incidentally more favourable conditions for hurricane development towards the equator – all part of the same broad and notable change in weather pattern that I expect, which should suit us more favourably in terms of sunshine and warmth going forwards.

I don’t expect next week to be dry throughout, at some point there will likely be some heavy showers, perhaps even another area of low pressure to bring 2-3 showers days or some general rain.

But overall there should be more sunshine, more dry days, more influence from the Azores High as it tries to push east…as I said, it won’t be smooth sailing but it is the start of a change in weather pattern (I think). Temperatures probably warm/very warm – some quite hot and/or slightly cooler days possible depending on how the high positions itself.

And generally I am hopeful for more in the way of warm sunshine, perhaps hot at times, for the latter half of August – though I’d like to see the pattern change actually happen, or at least get closer, before expressing too much confidence.

Still no strong thoughts on September, but I’d currently say balancing out at drier and warmer than normal is more likely – but will depend on said pattern change.

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