Well, the weather is definitely different to last week.
I think I suggested a week, maybe 10 days ago that it looked like the Atlantic was firing up a bit, and so it seems – with the jetstream assisting with bringing low pressure systems towards and through the UK.
Looking like a week or two of often not very summer-like weather.
Too many really good photographs this week – but Trisha’s is my pick, so thank you.
Tonight will be rather cloudy and dry, some clear spells at times, down to around 11’C.
Tuesday starts with our low pressure system moving towards Scandinavia, with a semi-formed secondary low approaching from the south-west.
The day starts with sunny spells, but the aforementioned secondary low will bring some showery rain across southern England. Not impossible that it will stay to our south – I don’t expect it to rain much further north than say Oxford, so some showery rain is likely, but not certain. Around 18’C and mostly cloudy after early sunny spells. Occasional bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, some clear spells also, down to around 15’C.
Wednesday will see some sunny spells – but more cloud than sunshine and a fair amount of showers, some of which will be heavy – possibly merging into longer spells of rain later in the day. Around 20’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.
Thursday will see a bit more sunshine, but plenty of cloud bubbling up with a fair few heavy showers for most. Thunder could easily be mixed in, perhaps hail, and some notably heavy downpours. Around 20’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.
Friday sees a ridge of high pressure – but with low pressure to the west heading in on a relatively strong jetstream.
Hazy sunshine at times, especially in the morning – cloud fitfully though gradually thickening during the afternoon – a small chance of a shower. Feeling a bit warmer and somewhat humid, 21’C, maybe a tad more. Cloudy, windy, warmish with some occasional rain overnight, around 16’C.
Saturday looks rather cloudy. Starting with some occasional rain – a bit of uncertainty over how much at this stage. It should become a bit brighter later, though likely staying fairly cloudy. Warm and windy, 20’C – get a bit of afternoon sunshine and 23’C is possible. Warmish and cloudy overnight, 16’C.
Confidence is too low for Sunday to be worth attempting a forecast…too many possible outcomes all roughly as likely. Perhaps warm/very warm more likely than not.
The Azores High should start trying to push in from the south-west next week – hello summer – but the jetstream will still be close to our north as it gradually continues to trek further north in its meandering fashion.
This suggests a changeable week is most likely with some fine sunny days but also some showers or weak bands of rain on other days. Temperatures perhaps a little below average at the beginning of the week, and perhaps a little above average by the end of the week…though way too early to be certain on that as a pattern.
Most likely we should see a spell of fine, warm/very warm summer-like weather for the second half of July, occasionally hot or very hot – and when it does become hot, thunderstorms will be possible. And this should carry into the first part of August.