Monday 29th April 2024

Warmer rain is on the way. But also some warmer sunshine at times too.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

The general picture sees an unusual evolution this week, we start with low pressure close to our west with much warmer air to our east – the movement of the low pressure to our south will lead us to tap into the warmth to our east, but low pressure being close by will mean rain/showers at times – and likely some heavy.

But when the sun shines (somewhat), it will be fairly warm.

The forecast quickly becomes uncertain, and I’m a little pushed for time/energy so the Thursday morning update (assuming I do it then) will be more helpful on bank holiday weekend details.

So for Tuesday we’ll be sandwiched between a band of rain not that far to our west, and showers to our east – and it will be a sunny sandwich, at least to start. Some more cloud as the day goes on, and the chance of a shower later in the day, though more likely it stays dry. 17’C, maybe 18’C, though on the breezy side. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, down to around 9’C – it should stay dry, though a stray shower plausible.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, a small chance of some early mist/fog patches but they’ll clear quickly. The morning sees quite a lot of cloud, but with some hazy sunshine – perhaps some light showers also. During the afternoon showers will develop and may turn into general heavy rain – but uncertainty on that aspect. Reaching somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. In the evening and overnight, there’s a chance of some very heavy/torrential showers moving up from France/Belgium, potentially thundery – but quite what track they take, assuming the develop is uncertain.

Thursday is even more uncertain. Any early showery rain should clear west, probably it remains cloudy or fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine. In the afternoon there is a fair chance of more heavy, possible thundery showers developing, turning into general heavy showery rain – but I stress uncertainty on this development. Temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Showers/showery rain probable overnight.

Again, low confidence for Friday but the slightly more likely outcome sees a fairly cloudy day, showers/showery rain possible in the morning but this tending to move north during the day, with hazy sunshine possible as the day goes on. Lower temperatures, somewhere between 13’C and 16’C more likely.

Day-to-day details are uncertain for the bank holiday weekend, but we can rule some things out now – an Arctic blast won’t happen, neither will a plume of warmer air from the south.

More likely we see low pressure still close by, heavy showers at least some of the days, if not every day, perhaps a spell of persistent rain – but also sunny spells at times too. Temperatures broadly in the range of 14’C to 18’C, I wouldn’t rule out a 20’C if we get a dry and sunny day – likewise I wouldn’t rule out a 10’C if we get some outright persistent rain one day.

Suggestions of it becoming warmer…and…and…you won’t believe it…drier, the week after. Still a long way away, but currently the more likely outcome. Maybe I won’t need to book a holiday for May.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *