Monday 28th September 2020

Wet, wet, wet. After tomorrow, anyway. Low pressure is going to arrive and stall over the UK for several days – it will be tricky to forecast rain timings more than a day or two in advance as the low pressure area spirals around. But if you just take out of this forecast that it will rain a lot, you’ll have the idea!

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

This evening and tonight will be mostly cloudy, a weak weather front will bring some very occasional bits of showery rain, the odd heavy burst possible – but it will be dry most of the time. Around 13’C.

Tuesday morning will be mostly cloudy, the odd bit of rain possible but mostly dry. Sunshine will spread from the west in the afternoon, some cloud still around but pleasant. 18’C. Reasonably clear overnight, though some high cloud, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees the large and complex low pressure system that will dominate our weather for several days approach from the north-west.

The morning starts bright, but cloud will gradually thicken during the morning as a weather front approaches – the odd shower possible before it does. More persistent rain arriving either lunchtime or early afternoon, clearing roughly mid-evening, some heavy bursts possible. Reaching around 17’C and becoming quite windy. Variable cloud overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 10’C.

Thursday will see some sunny spells, with a small chance of a shower. Around 16’C. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, the shower chance increases and they could be heavy, though some uncertainty on this aspect. Uncertain overnight but a good chance of either heavy showers or general heavy rain.

By Friday, it looks like a quickly deepening centre of our low pressure will develop either over southern England or northern France.

Prolonged heavy rain is very likely, strong winds are also likely – but too early to be sure on the wind strength and also the timing of the rain. Temperatures around 12’C. Further spells of heavy rain overnight are probable – but again, no idea on timing of rain for Friday or Saturday yet.

Low pressure will still be firmly in charge on Saturday but impossible to know the position of weather fronts at that stage. Most likely there will be heavy rain at some point – a very small chance of a mostly dry day, a small chance that it could pour down all day – most likely something in between with spells of heavy rain at some point. Around 12’C, give or take, probably windy. Same story overnight!

Sunday is more of the same. Still the same area of low pressure that arrived on Wednesday circulating in the general area of the UK. Impossible to know where weather fronts will be, all I can say is that there is a good chance of heavy rain at some points day and night. Around 12’C and likely windy.

Suggestions that Monday might be drier (not going to suggest dry yet!) as low pressure slips away either east or south-east.

The next area of low pressure probably arrives on Tuesday, bringing more wind and rain, and probably hangs around for a while again.

With all the uncertain on rain timings, I will try to do morning updates before work, nearer the time, though Thursday’s forecast should clear things up.

Forecasts could upgrade to see some very heavy rain or gales at times, we could easily get stuck under bands of heavy rain for 12+ hours which may bring some localised flooding also.

One of the main models I follow is suggesting over 60mm of rain to have fallen by next Monday evening in our area – these charts of accumulated rainfall often overexaggerate but the potential is there for some high totals of rain if we do get stuck under slow moving heavy rain. The average for the whole of October is around 65mm I think.

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