Monday 28th March 2022

Cold is coming and it might even snow. Well…it is spring.

Thanks to Richie for the photograph.

This evening and overnight will be mostly cloudy with some showery rain developing and pushing up from the south, though no guarantee you will get any rain. Perhaps a little mist by dawn and down to around 6’C.

For Tuesday we have this developing area of low pressure over France, and colder air starting to spread down from the north-east.

It will be generally rather cloudy though there will be some bright/sunny spells – more likely in the afternoon, and also some very occasional showery rain, though most of that will be to our south. Around 11’C. Cloudy to start the night, though some clear spells developing for a while, before further cloud sinks south around dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Wednesday might start bright, but it will soon cloud over. Staying mostly cloudy, with some occasional mostly light rain. Reaching around 10’C though becoming cooler as the afternoon goes on. The rain becoming persistent and somewhat heavier in the evening, and could easily turn to sleet or snow overnight as cold air tucks in. Don’t be surprised if there is a slushy covering of snow by dawn – though it will very much be a nowcasting event – maybe I’ll have a clearer idea by Wednesday evening, but now is just “well maybe”. Down to around 1’C, though feeling colder in the wind.

Thursday sees sunshine and scattered showers – some heavy. Showers could fall as rain, but more likely they’ll fall as sleet, hail, snow or a mixture, especially in heavy showers. Don’t be surprised if there is a temporary covering from any heavy showers – though it will fairly quickly melt. 6’C but feeling colder in the raw wind. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely for all – down to around -1’C. A stray wintry shower cannot be ruled out. Good job Friday is April Fool’s Day and not Thursday, otherwise you might not believe me.

So Friday sees high pressure start to build from the west.

Friday again sees sunny spells and showers. Rain a bit more likely than Thursday, but sleet, snow and general wintry mixtures more likely in heavy showers. 8’C but feeling colder in the north-easterly wind. Clear spells overnight, down to around -2’C with a widespread frost.

Saturday looks fairly cloudy, with some bright spells and some showers. Showers more likely rain by this point, and generally fewer of them – but catch a heavy one and there could still be a wintry mix. Around 8’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost likely for most.

Sunday still sees the colder air mass in place. Sunny spells to start, generally cloudier after with some bright spells and the odd shower. Around 9’C. Cloud amounts uncertain overnight though a frost possible with enough clearance.

The more likely outcome for next week sees a return to more westerly conditions, and a generally changeable theme – some fair days, some days with rain or showers, and temperatures broadly normal or a tad below, say 10’C to 14’C.

The unusually early and unusually strong final stratospheric warming we had recently is almost certainly the cause of this cold spell, an event pretty much akin to a sudden stratospheric warming event – the type of event that caused the Beast From The East in 2018, so there will be a good chance of further colder than normal conditions from the north during the rest of April, perhaps more likely later on, though timing is a guess.

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