Monday 27th November 2023

A fairly cold week ahead with mixed weather, some sunshine, some frost, some rain and perhaps even some snow. Certainly our first chance of snow, of the season, anyway. Chance is emphasised.

Thanks to Carly for the photograph – I thought I better use a contributor’s sunrise seeing as I’ve used my own from a different country!

As a general overview, we start with low pressure over the southern half of the country, with much colder weather to the north-east over Scandinavia – the jetstream is much weaker once more, and tracking further south than normal.

Today will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, more patchy at first, somewhat more persistent and moderate from late morning into the afternoon. A bit milder this morning, around 9’C, but feeling colder later as the breeze picks up and swings to the north-east. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower in the breeze possible, down to around 3’C.

Some cloud at times on Tuesday but generally it will be rather sunny, though on the cold side at around 6’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight and a frost for most, down to around -1’C, give or take.

Wednesday will be a cold but mostly sunny day. A bit of cloud around. Reaching around 4’C, maybe 5’C. Clear skies with a frost, at least at first overnight – more uncertainty later as low pressure approaches. Down to around -2’C but give or take a couple.

Thursday is a tricky day – low pressure will be approaching from the west but the track is uncertain. I think the somewhat more likely outcome is for it to go over northern France, and in which case we’ll stay dry but cloudy, perhaps hazy sunshine.

However if this is a bit further north, then it would bring outbreaks of rain which could turn to snow. Very much one to watch this as it could be disruptive if it occurs, though at the moment is around a 25% chance.

Either way, cold at around 4’C, possibly windy. Overnight also depends on what the low pressure did – cold, possibly frosty, possibly a wintry shower.

Friday looks cold in a fairly raw north-easterly wind.

Low pressure to the south-east/east could bring a wintry shower or two, but otherwise most likely sunny but cold, around 4’C. Likely frosty overnight.

Saturday more likely cold but sunny, with temperatures around 4’C.

Sunday perhaps starts to see an attempt at returning to our more usual westerly flow, though when a cold block gets established, it often needs more than one attempt.

So maybe something a tad milder with some showery rain for Sunday but very low confidence on conditions. Perhaps this brings in milder air for next week, perhaps we have to wait a few more days.

Quite a bit of uncertainty and a fairly interesting output synoptically – I cannot say I expected a full week of colder conditions when I mentioned around 10 days ago that something colder was possible towards the end of the month – I didn’t think the background signals supported it, but here we are. I’ll update during the week if the snow chance increases for Thursday…do keep an eye on official forecasts too (and not spammy websites telling you that 8 metres of snow is guaranteed at 1:14pm).

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