Showery is the theme for this week, though a trend for drier in the coming weekend more likely, if not especially warm.
The general set-up to start the week sees the Azores high trying to nudge in, but there’s too much competition from a resurgent Atlantic, at least for now.
Bank Holiday Monday starts rather cloudy, some glimpses of sunshine. From around mid-morning, scattered showers will develop, some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Perhaps you’ll miss all the showers, but more likely you’ll catch a few. Fewer showers from mid-afternoon onwards, and more in the way of sunny spells towards the end of the day. Around 17’C and breezy. Clear skies at first this evening, but cloud thickening during the night with some showery rain in the latter part of the night – mostly light but the odd heavy burst possible. No lower than around 9’C.
Tuesday starts mostly cloudy with showery rain – generally light to moderate rain, though the odd heavy burst mixed in. Not the strongest weather front ever – and perhaps some sunny breaks at times. More in the way of sunny spells from around mid/late afternoon onwards, but also some showers still. Around 17’C and breezy. Still one or two scattered showers in the evening, perhaps heavy, but these will gradually fade overnight to leave clear spells. Around 11’C.
By Wednesday, our low pressure is over the North Sea. It will leave us with sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few scattered showers – say around a 70% chance of catching a couple, you may miss them all though and stay dry and reasonably pleasant. Reaching around 18’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.
By Thursday we see high pressure to our west, with low pressure towards the Azores – not especially common but it happens.
With low pressure also to our east this means a northerly flow, maybe north-westerly, which is never amazing for temperatures – reaching around 17’C but feeling cooler in the breeze. Also plenty of heavy showers likely, maybe thundery – with sunny spells outside of the showers. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.
A bit of uncertainty on details for Friday, but broadly we remain in a cooler flow, say 15’C to 19’C, some showers and likely more cloud than sunshine overall – the uncertainty is due to how the low to our east develops (or doesn’t).
By Saturday, high pressure will be trying to push in from the west, though having a hard time of it. Some uncertainty at this stage – dry is far more likely than showery/wet, cool is, well, likely – sunshine/cloud amounts are what will determine temperatures. So roughly a 40/40 split between a cloudy and cool day, with the North Sea wind causing all the cloud and temperatures around 12’C. Or a fairly sunny day, with a cool wind but around 17’C. A 20% chance instead that low pressure is close enough to our east for a showery/wet day instead.
Same kind of theme for Sunday but the odds more in favour of the sunnier outcome – say 60/40 in favour of not especially warm but sunny, 18’C – the less likely option being cloudy all/most of the day, and cool, around 13’C.
It’s one of those set-ups which tend to happen more often in May/June where Scotland has the warm sunshine, and we struggle – it wouldn’t surprise me to see 24’C in Scotland/Ireland next weekend.
Early suggestions for next week are that high pressure remains on the scene, though being centred to our west means temperatures around average at best – and the chance of cloudy mornings due to North Sea cloud are high. and it remaining cloudy and cool all day is possible.
Possible it warms up though…we’ll see but dry seems the more likely theme anyway for next week.
Hints of something cooler and more northerly for the weekend after, but that’s a long way away.