Monday 27th April 2020

Goodbye sunshine. Hello rain.

Thanks to TC for the photograph showing the portender of change.

A small chance of a shower this evening, rain will spread up from France by around midnight or a bit before. Showery at first, becoming more persistent and heavy as the night goes on. Around 8’C.

Tuesday starts with heavy rain, perhaps very heavy at times, though occasionally not so heavy too. The rain will become lighter during the afternoon and gradually more patchy. 10’C at a push…yeah. Mostly cloudy overnight, still the odd splash of light rain possible, but mostly dry. 5’C.

By Wednesday, the doors have temporarily opened for the Atlantic to send low pressure systems our way.

Starting with some bright spells, a band of rain will cross roughly 11am to 4pm, give or take, some heavy bursts mixed in. Some sunny spells will follow, though another band of rain will cross late evening and overnight – clearing by dawn. 13’C by day, 6’C by night and a bit windy too.

Thursday starts sunny. An area of of showers associated with the centre of the low pressure will cross – plenty of showers, some heavy, perhaps with hail and thunder – or instead they may merge into longer spells of rain. 13’C at best and quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C.

Friday sees more showers, though less than Thursday. Plenty of cloud, some sunny spells – an improvement of sorts for sure. 15’C at a push. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

The most likely outcome for Saturday sees some sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers – though how much of a scattering is uncertain at this stage. It should be a tad warmer, maybe 17’C or so.

Confidence then breaks down – it looks like the first Spanish Plume event of the year will then happen, bringing heat and humidity from Africa across western and/or central Europe. So we may find some notable warmth and humidity for 12-48 hours, starting Sunday, Monday or Tuesday – quickly followed by heavy and possibly thundery rain.

So much uncertainty on this right now, it could all be further east than here and be a non-event for the UK, it could start anywhere between Sunday and Tuesday, could last anywhere between 12-48 hours – though it almost certainly will be followed by heavy, possibly thundery rain.

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