Monday 26th October 2020

So the clocks have gone back which means the weather models come out an hour earlier – this does make my life easier! Shame about the darkness.

A fairly unsettled week ahead, rain or showers at times, windy at times – but not a total washout or anything.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, though cloud gradually thickening later in the night. Down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees a large area of low pressure to the north-west of Scotland, which will spread a weather front across.

It will be cloudy with rain roughly 7am to 2pm, mostly moderate rainfall and somewhat patchy. Sunny spells will follow, perhaps a shower too. Quite windy, around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, breezy, 8’C.

Wednesday will be fairly cloudy, some sunny spells at times, if hazy, and also a fair scattering of showers. Some places may miss out, but more likely catching a few showers, possibly heavy. Quite windy, around 12’C. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening later, 8’C or so.

Thursday sees further rain spread across, mostly in the morning, the odd heavy burst possible. Likely mostly dry in the afternoon, but mostly cloudy also. Windy but a bit milder, around 14’C. Cloudy and mild overnight, the odd spot of rain possible, 14’C.

Friday sees an attempt by high pressure to our south to push north – though not making much progress with weather fronts still close to our north-west.

Most likely there will be quite a lot of cloud around, perhaps even a spot of light rain, but I’m hopeful for at least some brightness at times – and it is a warmer flow of air, 17’C should be reached. Cloudy and mild overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible, 13’C.

Saturday is a close call at the moment – the timing of the arrival of a weather front to the west is uncertain, if it can stay away until the evening then we should get some warmish sunshine, say 18’C – perhaps a bit more.

However, if it arrives during the morning or early afternoon, then closer to 16’C.

Further rain likely on Sunday, though details becoming sketchy now. Likely still mild or quite warm, and probably windy too.

Still expecting high pressure to build next week, roughly Tuesday or Wednesday onwards, which should bring more in the way of sunshine, but also risk of fog and possibly the first frosts of the season.

As November progresses, high pressure should be on the scene quite a bit, probably alternating between being close to our east with a milder, cloudier flow, and to our west, with a cooler but sunnier flow. The interchange from one to another probably being prefixed with a weather front bringing rain or showers. So quite mixed, but overall drier than normal.

Something worth mentioning is the chance of high pressure building to our north-west at some point in the second half of November, which could bring a more notable cold spell. Would be a fairly unusual set-up so it’s nothing more than a possible at the moment.

The best chance of a proper cold and wintry spell this winter looks to be either late November or during December as it currently stands. I’m not especially confident yet, but there is a chance. Too strong a La Niña or a very strong polar vortex developing in the next few weeks (like 2019) will probably scupper said chance.

January looks like it will be wet, February mixed and often mild – unless we get a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, but predicting an SSW can only be wild speculation this far out.

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