Monday 26th June 2023

Warm but changeable is the theme, as we revert to a more westerly flow.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So we have a reinvigorated jetstream to deal with, which seems to have been powered by a notable plunge of colder air into North America recently. Mostly, for now, low pressure will be to the north – but close enough to bring some cloud, showers and maybe rain at times. Hence, changeable.

Yet still plenty of warmth around.

Monday starts sunny. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up, and likely there will be some areas of more general cloud at times this afternoon, though still bright, and again more sunshine later in the day. A small chance of a shower. Breezy but warm, 24’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, though cloud thickening somewhat towards dawn, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday sees a weather front crossing, though the rain will stay to our north. For us, mostly cloudy, though some hazy sunshine at times, especially early and late in the day. Perhaps a spot of light rain. Warm and breezy, around 23’C. Staying fairly cloudy overnight, no lower than 16’C so on the warm side.

Wednesday sees another weather front approaching, but ahead of it we’ll see spells of hazy sunshine, though a fair amount of cloud. Quite hot, 27’C seems feasible, with enough hazy sunshine. The weather front will arrive in the evening, bringing some heavy showers, and becomes slow-moving overnight – likely turning into general showery, heavy rain. No lower than around 15’C.

Thursday is somewhat uncertain due to the overnight rain – it could clear by dawn to leave a mostly sunny day, or it may hang around until the afternoon, bringing spells of rain – or somewhere in between. I’d hazard a guess at the rain clearing during the morning, with sunny spells by the afternoon and temperatures around 22’C – but it is very possible that the rain hangs on for longer. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees sunny spells in the morning, though quite a lot of cloud likely bubbles up, with some sunny spells for the afternoon. Warm, around 23’C. Cloudy overnight with some showery rain spreading down from the north-west. Down to around 15’C.

By the weekend, we see low pressure pretty close to our north, between Scotland and Iceland.

Saturday will start cloudy, with some bits of rain possible. It will become sunny, with variable amounts of cloud. Warm and breezy, though some uncertainty over how warm – between 22’C and 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Fairly low confidence on details for Sunday, but something broadly in the way of some cloud, some sunshine and a chance of a shower or two. Temperatures between 21’C and 25’C – breezy.

Suggestions that the low pressure may be a bit further south next week, so we could see something more showery but likely still warm/very warm.

I’d be surprised if we don’t reset back into a much warmer/hotter and sunnier pattern for at least the second half of July, perhaps second two-thirds, but things change. The hurricane season is already much busier than normal, the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are exceptionally warm – and we’ve got El Niño developing, so quite a few “wild cards” that could cause changes to the more likely expected patterns.

I still believe that the more likely outcome for the second half/two-thirds of July is for it to be warmer/hotter and sunnier than normal, with some occasional thundery downpours – however, I do have slightly lower confidence than I did.

Overall, it is still reasonably summer-like – warm/very warm, variable amounts of sunshine and a bit of rain. Next update probably on Friday morning.

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