Monday 26th July 2021

Well, it isn’t a summer week ahead – but isn’t a washout either. Changeable, some sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud, some showers – perhaps some general rain. Temperatures a little below normal – but at this time of year that is still warm.

So it could definitely be worse.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

A small chance of a heavy shower this evening but more likely staying dry, fairly cloudy overnight with a few showers pushing through, a quite a warm night at around 16’C.

By Tuesday, our weekend low pressure system has become a very large trough over the UK, stretching to Iceland in the north-west, Norway to our north-east and at least half-way into France to our south – this will dominate our weather this week.

It will be a day of sunshine and heavy showers. Sunshine fairly limited, most places seeing a few heavy showers, thunder possible – but feasible that you could miss them all, say 85% chance of a few showers. We lose the warmer air aloft, so maximum temperatures around 20’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is another day of sunshine and showers. Not too much sunshine – and lots of showers, most places likely to have at least a few, they could be very heavy, thunder/hail very possible. Also notably breezy, verging on windy. Just about squeezing 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

For Thursday it looks like the focus of the shower activity will be further north, and we’ll have a reasonably pleasant day. A fair amount of sunshine but also a fair amount of cloud too. Reaching around 21’C.

Some uncertainty for Thursday night into Friday. There is a good chance, say around 60%, of an area of general heavy/very heavy rain moving up from the south-west. Some uncertainty over whether it will happen – and then uncertainty on timing – it could arrive anywhere as early as Thursday evening or maybe not until Friday morning.

So Friday may start with some heavy rain – as I mentioned in the previous paragraph this is uncertain. Either way sunshine and scattered showers will be the main theme – nothing especially heavy or frequent expected. Around 20’C.

By Saturday our resident low pressure trough has moved to Scandinavia.

So not too bad a day, some sunny spells but plenty of cloud. Still a few showers dotted around, say a 40% chance of catching one or two, possibly on the heavy side. Reaching around 21’C in a northerly flow. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday looks reasonably fair. Sunny spells, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, warm, around 22’C. Just a small chance of a shower but most likely dry. Clear spells overnight, around 13’C.

Monday looks similar, sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud and a chance of a heavy shower. Around 22’C.

The more likely outcome for the rest of next week sees a new low pressure trough arrive from the west/north-west at some point, maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, which will lead us back to more organised and frequent heavy, thundery showers.

That’s around an 80% chance – the Azores high nudging in to the south of England, giving something drier and sunnier if nothing especially summery, still with a few showers, would be around a 20% chance.

A return to anything more consistently settled is not likely before around 10th August – as I mentioned, a 20% chance. And a return to settled conditions around 10th August is far from certain either, maybe around a 50% chance.

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