Monday 25th October 2021

A mild and dry few days, changeable from Friday.

Thanks to Nicola for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at first, high cloud pushing in from the west as the night goes on, 8’C.

For Tuesday we are in a mild south-westerly flow, with high pressure fairly close to our south.

It starts bright with some sunny spells, hazy at times. Cloud generally thicker from mid-morning through to early afternoon, a very small chance of a shower, more in the way of sunny spells as the afternoon progresses. 16’C, maybe 17’C – breezy too. Some clear spells overnight though lots of cloud, particularly after midnight. Mild, 14’C.

Wednesday morning looks mostly cloudy, a few sunny breaks. Some sunny spells at times in the afternoon though likely plenty of cloud still. 17’C and breezy. Cloud thinning overnight, 12’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Some cloud as the afternoon goes on as a weather front continues it’s struggle to move east – but really quite a pleasant day. The last warmish day until 2022 perhaps? Reaching around 16’C and still breezy. Cloud tending to thicken overnight as the weather front to our west edges closer, 14’C.

Friday should see the weather front push east, so we’d be looking at showery rain and temperatures around 15’C. There is a small chance that it may stay to our west allowing some more warmish hazy sunshine but only around a 15% chance. Showers possible overnight, down to around 9’C.

Saturday and Sunday see low pressure in charge, with smaller cut-off lows developing and circulating around a larger low pressure trough.

There will be rain and/or showers at some point during the weekend, though timing uncertain at the moment. A chance of a spell of strong winds associated with any rain, but again will all depend on the exact phasing of these cut-off lows. Feeling cooler at around 13’C.

Next week likely starts colder with a northerly ish flow – temperatures closer to 10’C. Uncertain as to whether it will be dry, or whether there will be more rain.

Later in the week (perhaps not until next weekend), the more likely outcome is that we return to a more changeable westerly flow, a bit milder, not much in the way of rain but some, and more dry days than otherwise.

And then in the second half of November, there remain signs of high pressure building close to our west, which means a colder flow more likely – frosts becoming more likely. I wouldn’t even rule out some wintriness mixed into any showers.

December still has a good chance of being colder and drier than normal. January currently looks milder, but wet and windy.

Not sure when the next forecast will be as I’m out on Thursday night – perhaps Friday morning.

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