Not a dry week, but a calmer week this week – the cold has gone, but the mild will disappear too.

No photographs so you’ll have to have one of mine – from the joy that is Oxford Street on a wet and windy November afternoon. Don’t worry…I wasn’t going shopping.

So we start the week with Storm Bert heading into Scandinavia, and high pressure will weakly form behind it.

Cloudy to start the day, but this will quickly move east to be replaced by sunny spells and a bit of patchy cloud. Around 11’C and breezy, if not quite windy at times. Clear skies at first overnight, though an area of cloud and perhaps a shower crossing through the middle of the night – down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny. A bit of patchy cloud and then some high/mid-level cloud developing later in the afternoon as the next low pressure approaches. Around 9’C. An area of rain spreading across overnight – likely some heavy bursts mixed in, perhaps some very heavy rain briefly. Around 5’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, probably still some rain at dawn (and perhaps heavy) – timing as to when it clears is uncertain, and could broadly be any time from 6am to 1pm when it finishes raining. A very small chance of some sleet/wet snow on the back edge. Likely quite windy, generally pretty chilly too – around 5’C. Maybe some sunshine by late afternoon, but again, timing on when the little low pressure clears is uncertain. Skies clearing overnight and a frost probable, more likely down to around -1’C, give or take. A small chance of fog forming.

By Thursday, our little low is in the North Sea, and high pressure is building behind it – but the next low pressure system, a rather huge system is spinning away in the Atlantic (which actually spawned Wednesday’s low pressure…kind of spat it out in a meteorological way).

Thursday should be mostly sunny if a bit on the chilly side. Some high cloud likely at times, perhaps a bit of patchy low cloud but mostly sunny. 7’C at best. Some high cloud pushing east overnight so uncertain how low temperatures will go, but more likely around 0’C which will mean frost possible, and a small chance of fog forming too.

Friday most likely bright with hazy sunshine – weather fronts trying to push in from the west but not getting anywhere. Around 8’C, maybe a tad more. Probably on the cloudier side overnight, down to around 4’C – though not especially confident on details.

Some uncertainty for the weekend, but it does look like high pressure will strengthen and keep the low pressure at bay.

Probably sunny on Saturday or at least on the sunnier side of the spectrum, and around 8’C or so. Probably clear skies overnight – so a frost possible and down to around 0’C.

And probably the same or similar for Sunday – sunny or on the sunnier side of the spectrum and around 7’C or so.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend – high pressure wouldn’t need to be much weaker for weather fronts to make more progress with cloudier skies with some rain – it is still a plausible outcome.

My expectation remains for high pressure to be around more often than not in December, so conditions often settled and calm. Though you’ll find out more about my winter expectations fairly soon…the seasonal forecast is nearly due.