The easterly flow continues, with high pressure to our north – though with lighter winds.
An easterly flow in winter pretty much guarantees cold, but at this time of year it can be pleasantly warmish. Likewise it can still be cool, particularly when low cloud rolls in off the North Sea. And we should see both this week – though some uncertainty on the extent of cloud.
Thanks to Christel for the photograph.
Any showers clearing this evening to mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 3’C though the most sheltered spots may see a slight frost.
Tuesday sees high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south-west.
The morning will see good sunny spells, the afternoon seeing quite a lot of cloud and just a few sunny spells. Quite warm, 16’C, a small chance of a light shower but most places dry. A fair amount of cloud overnight though also some clear spells, down to around 4’C.
Wednesday starts with sunny spells, but it looks like a lot of low cloud will spread in from the North Sea, bringing fairly cloudy conditions with limited sunny spells for much of the day – though a little bit of uncertainty over just how consistent the cloud will be. Around 14’C, though an outside chance of closer to 16’C if there are more sunny breaks in the cloud than currently expected. Down to around 4’C overnight, give or take.
Thursday should see more in the way of sunshine though it is a close call. Certainly it is possible for extensive low cloud and temperatures close to 12’C, but more likely there will be some decent spells of sunshine, if perhaps hazy, and temperatures closer to 16’C. Variable cloud overnight and plenty of high cloud too, down to around 5’C.
I think from here I’ll stress the uncertainty over low cloud from the North Sea – don’t be too surprised if it ends up sunny and quite warm instead of cloudy and quite cool.
So Friday is more likely to see extensive low cloud with temperatures closer to 13’C. Overnight more likely clear spells and chilly, down to around 3’C with a frost risk in more sheltered spots.
The more likely outcome for Saturday is for it to be fairly cloudy, but some sunny breaks at times, especially early morning and late afternoon, and temperatures around 15’C. I stress again that it could easily be much cloudier or sunnier, with temperatures reflecting that if so.
Again the more likely outcome for Sunday sees some sunny spells, particular in the early part of the morning and late afternoon, though with quite a bit of cloud around too, with temperatures around 15’C. Again, it could easily be much cloudier – or much sunnier.
Bank Holiday Monday remains uncertain, though in a different way. More likely we end up with the wind direction becoming more northerly but how progressive any colder air moving down is uncertain. It could easily be chilly, around 10’C with showers as cold air moves down quickly – or it could actually be quite pleasant with cold air staying to our north, and sunny spells with the odd shower possible, and something closer to 18’C.
So the rest of next week depends really on how much influence the northerly (or attempted northerly) has, temperatures either fairly normal (say around 16’C) or a bit below normal (say around 12’C) – and showers are more likely.
Next realistic chance of any proper warmth will be around 8th/10th May, but that is only an opportunity as opposed to a prediction.