Monday 23rd November 2020

The long promised settled spell is upon us – not totally devoid of rain, but most days dry, slowly becoming colder – some sunshine, some cloud, some frost and some fog.

Thanks to Paul for another spot on photograph.

Tonight will be quite cloudy, some clear spells – a south-westerly breeze keeping it a bit milder at around 8’C.

Tuesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – a weather front slowly approaching from the west but staying dry. 12’C and breezy in a mild sector of air. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of rain arriving around dawn from the aforementioned weather front – though not much. Around 9’C.

For Wednesday we just about stay in the mild sector – it will be cloudy with occasional rain, often light but a few heavyish bursts mixed in. 12’C in the morning but becoming cooler as the day goes on. Probably still cloudy and mild overnight as that decaying weather front struggles to sink south – but a very close 60/40 kind of call and it could be clear with a slight frost instead – 30 miles further north and I’d call it for clear and frosty.

Thursday sees high pressure over the UK – though not the strongest area of high pressure ever.

It may start cloudy due to the lingering weather front, but it should become sunny even if it doesn’t start so. Some cloud around at times, but a pleasant if cool day. 8’C. Fog forming for many overnight – no guarantee in your specific area, but likely for many. Down to around 2’C.

Friday likely starts foggy. It will lift into low cloud, and eventually there should be some sunny spells. Chilly at around 7’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells – down to around 3’C but very give or take – I wouldn’t rule out something colder with a slight frost, especially in sheltered spots, but difficult at this stage to be sure on cloud amounts.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy though with some sunny spells. We should see less cloud as the day goes on…and more sunshine. Around 8’C. Probably foggy or frosty overnight – unlikely both, and on the cold side.

Sunday probably fairly similar though confidence a bit reduced by this stage. Some sunshine, some cloud, around 8’C. A good chance of overnight frost, down to around 0’C.

Next week looks settled but a tad colder. Some sunshine, some cloud, mostly or completely dry. Temperatures by day around 5’C – so pretty cold, though perhaps a tad lower. Overnight frosts likely, depending on cloud amounts – we could end up a few degrees below zero.

Yes, it seems that we can still get cold weather in December!

I think towards the end of next week or into the weekend we might start to see weather fronts push in from the west – nothing especially unsettled expected, but some wind and rain. Quite a long way away though, only a slight favourite in terms of outcome probabilities – maybe the colder weather can become more entrenched. We shall see.

A few of you might be wondering if we can get any snow from this cold spell. Well, not under the currently expected set up – but I’d say there is a 20% chance that things could orientate to a northerly or north-westerly flow after the first week of December – which would bring better chances of wintry precipitation.

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