Monday 23rd August 2021

High pressure is in charge. Woohoo! However (and it being summer 2021 there is always a however), it is centred to our north-west, which does mean easterly or north-easterly flows so there will be some cloud at times, and temperatures around average or a little below – however (a good however) a little below average is still warm at this time of year.

Possibly the least complained about weather possible – mostly dry, some sunshine, not hot, not cold.

Let’s put some details on.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Clear spells tonight, some cloud at times, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK, centred towards Scotland which is where the sunniest and warmest weather will be – as has happened quite a bit this summer.

It will be a pleasant day with good spells of sunshine, though some cloud around especially early morning and later in the day. Warm, 23’C seems feasible. Some clear spells overnight though more in the way of cloud, particularly later in the night, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks cloudier, though some uncertainty. More likely rather cloudy but bright, with some short sunny breaks – but it could be notably sunnier, or notably overcast too. Around 22’C. Cloudy overnight, 14’C.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. The sun should come out as the cloud tends back to the east coast, so it should become a pleasant day – but it is not certain. Assuming decent spells of sunshine, we’ll reach around 22’C. Plenty of cloud overnight, though some breaks, 13’C.

Friday again has uncertainty over cloud amounts. Likely more cloud in the morning, and fair in the afternoon with some half-decent sunny spells – but something mostly sunny or mostly cloudy cannot be ruled out. Around 21’C, perhaps a shade less. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday is very similar, still some uncertainty over cloud amounts, but the more likely outcome sees some decent sunny spells, but also some cloud at times too. Warm, 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

More of the same for Sunday.

Again, educated guesses for cloud amounts based on what wind direction the models are showing, but I’d suggest overall more cloud than sun, but some sunny spells and around 21’C.

Bank Holiday Monday should be broadly similar, quite cloudy but some sunny spells at times, and around 21’C.

I stress not to take too seriously the forecasts for cloud amounts each day, as they are a best guess – and any day could end up sunnier or cloudier than my current estimate. Subtle changes in the position of high pressure and the wind direction will make a large difference in cloud amounts…and your pinch of salt should be larger the further in the distance it is.

But – that isn’t too bad, is it?

Most likely outcome for next week is conditions to remain broadly similar – fine, some sunshine, some cloud, temperatures around average or a little below.

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