Monday 22nd June 2020

4 hot days and a thunderstorm. Or something like that.

Thanks to Tracy for the sunshine photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts with high pressure to our east, centred roughly over north-west Germany, and low pressure to the west of Ireland. Pretty much the perfect setup if you want to turn the heat pump on.

Long spells of sunshine, a little bit of high cloud and a few flurry clouds at times, most likely in the morning and late afternoon – but sun, sun and more sun. Hot, 27’C, maybe 28’C. Mostly clear overnight, it will be fairly warm with a minimum of 16’C.

Wednesday will be hot with glorious sunshine all day. Little cloud, probably none. 30’C should be reached, maybe 31’C. A warm night overnight, an eventual minimum of 18’C, clear skies and a little bit of a breeze.

Thursday again sees long spells of hot sunshine. Very little cloud around, the odd bit of high cloud and the odd fluffy cloud. 30’C should be reached, 32’C is possible, a little humid too.

And that is where the easy part of my forecast ends.

By Friday, there will be a new area of low pressure approaching from the west, with a bit of momentum.

This will introduce weather fronts – meeting hot air, and you know what happens – thunderstorms. Not everywhere, some places will miss out, some places maybe just a bit of rain, but some places likely getting some notable thunderstorms and torrential rain. Impossible to know any details right now on where…sometimes this is still impossible right up to the event!

This could happen as early as Thursday night, so overnight Thursday will be a warm night, minimum temperatures of around 19’C and an unknown chance of thunderstorms and/or rain.

Friday likely remains hot, or very warm and humid. Some sunny spells, though more likely hazy sunshine than clear skies, with a chance of some thunderstorms and/or showery rain. Details very uncertain at this stage. Maximum temperatures will depend on timing of initial thunderstorms, though should be in the range of 25’C to 30’C.

A bit of a messy forecast but thundery breakdowns always are. Overnight on Friday it should be fresher with variable cloud, down to around 14’C.

By Saturday low pressure will be in charge, centred to the north-west of Scotland. A breezy day, much fresher yet still warm with sunny spells, around 22’C, give or take. A chance of showers, though uncertain on that aspect right now. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday…I don’t really know. Various possibilities and I cannot really determine which is more likely. Sorry.

Next week likely starts fine, though nothing especially warm currently expected, perhaps a changeable week overnight with some occasional rain and showers, but more fine weather than not.

Generally looking fairly mixed for July still, there should be plenty more warm/very warm sunny days, but some showery days mixed in too. Roughly a ratio of 2:1 in favour of sunny and warm.

No particular weather pattern currently looks set to dominate, so it should occasionally be cooler than normal, and occasionally hot – often just normally warm/very warm for the time of year. Though hints that the Atlantic is stirring a tad, though taking low pressure systems well to our north.

Take care.

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