Quite hot this week, but otherwise mixed – some cloud, some sun and maybe some showers.
The bank holiday weekend not yet a done deal…but is looking promising for dry and warm weather.
Thanks to Paul for the photograph.
This evening will be cloudy with bits of showery rain in places – though many places continuing to stay dry. Some clear spells later in the night and a fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.
Tuesday sees low pressure not too far away from our north-west, and highish pressure over Europe – and we’ll be sourced our air from the hot continent.
Generally rather cloudy, some bright spells at times and more in the way of sunny spells later in the day. Likely dry, though a small chance of a shower in the morning or around lunchtime. Quite hot, despite all the cloud, reaching around 26’C, maybe 27’C. Fairly cloudy and warm overnight, probably no lower than 19’C for most.
Wednesday starts rather cloudy, though some hazy sunshine at times in the morning. Gradually during the afternoon sunshine amounts increase, though there is a small chance of an isolated heavy shower developing – most likely you stay dry. Quite hot, somewhere between 26’C and 28’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Some uncertainty overnight – a weak weather front crosses bringing mostly cloud, though that same weather front looks like it may trigger some storms over France, so a small chance of importing the remnants towards dawn – heavy rain the main risk, though I stress (again) the small chance. Warm again, down to around 18’C, give or take.
Uncertain for Thursday, due to the aforementioned storm remnants from France. More likely the storms tracked further east of the UK, perhaps the far east of England – and we’ll see decent spells of sunshine, possible hazy to start, with temperatures around 25’C or so. The less likely outcome sees the western part of the storm remnants over us, for part or maybe even all of the day, with mostly heavy rain – a small chance of thunder. Chances of the two outcomes are roughly 75/25 in favour of a sunny day. Mostly clear skies overnight and fresher too, around 12’C.
The bank holiday is not yet a done deal – but most likely high pressure will be developing over or close to the UK, so most likely there is plenty of fine weather.
Reasonably good spells of sunshine on Friday, some fair weather cloud, a small chance of an isolated heavy shower – but you’d be pretty unlucky (lucky?) to catch one. Around 25’C, give or take. Clear spells overnight and down to around 15’C.
Saturday looks to see a mixture of sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Perhaps more cloud than sunshine overall, though exact details still to be determined, and once again a small chance of an isolated heavy shower – but unlikely. Around 25’C, give or take.
The more likely outcome for Sunday keeps it fine, with sunny spells and fair weather cloud – though details on how much cloud, any chance of a shower and quite how warm it will be, are sketchy. Around 26’C, would be a reasonable estimate for maximum temperatures.
The more likely outcome for Bank Holiday Monday is very similar to Sunday – again details to be confirmed, but very warm/quite hot, some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a shower.
I say most likely for Sunday/Monday in particular, as the models have toyed with bringing a shallow low pressure down from the north-west during the weekend, and have also toyed with the idea of a thundery low (perhaps Wednesday night’s) being close to our east – either of which could bring a spell of rain. But neither is likely, just bear in mind that the bank holiday weather isn’t nailed on.
No particular signals for the rest of next week – though there are suggestions of something more changeable, with showers and rain becoming more likely after the beginning of September. We might even end up outright unsettled for a spell in the middle of September. Low confidence at this stage…but the signals are growing.
Maybe make the most of this coming weekend. Autumn is coming.